受特朗普風格的狗狗（Doge）集會很快揭開

迄今為止，價格下跌47％，狗狗幣（1.09％）特朗普啟發的拉力賽很快就會出現。

Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has dropped sharply after enjoying a Trump-fueled rally earlier this year. While this meme coin is known for its extreme volatility, it has also lagged behind many of its peers, which could be continuing to put pressure on the token.

Dogecoin（Crypto：Doge）在今年早些時候享受了一場特朗普舉行的集會後，急劇下降。儘管這種模因硬幣以其極端波動而聞名，但它也落後於許多同齡人，這可能會繼續對令牌施加壓力。

Is this dip a buying opportunity or a signal for investors to run for the hills? Let's dig deeper to find out what the next 12 months could have in store.

這是購買機會還是供投資者競選山丘的信號？讓我們更深入地了解接下來的12個月可能會有什麼。

Extreme volatility

極端波動

A rising tide can lift all boats, and the cryptocurrency industry is no exception. However, while digital asset prices tend to be highly correlated in the short term, over the long term, some patterns begin to emerge. Meme coins like Dogecoin have historically posted explosive gains when market sentiment is positive but collapsed rapidly when the outlook soured.

上升的潮流可以抬起所有船隻，加密貨幣行業也不例外。但是，儘管數字資產價格在短期內往往高度相關，但從長遠來看，一些模式開始出現。像Dogecoin這樣的模因硬幣歷史上已經爆發了爆炸性的收益，當市場情緒積極時，但是當外觀酸痛時迅速崩潰。

Dogecoin Price data by YCharts

YCHARTS的Dogecoin價格數據

It isn't easy to pinpoint precisely why this occurs. But it likely has something to do with the asset's investment community and its goals. When it was launched in 2013, Dogecoin was intended to satirize the cryptocurrency industry, not solve any particular problem. This somewhat unserious perspective has become part of its brand, potentially influencing the type of investors willing to buy the asset.

確切地確定發生這種情況並不容易。但這可能與資產的投資界及其目標有關。當它於2013年推出時，Dogecoin旨在諷刺加密貨幣行業，而不是解決任何特定問題。這種毫無疑問的觀點已成為其品牌的一部分，有可能影響願意購買資產的投資者類型。

Lagging institutional acceptance

滯後的機構接受

Unlike Dogecoin, other early cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (launched in 2009) and Ethereum (launched in 2015) have attracted growing mainstream acceptance. Both assets have been approved for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has opened the door for institutional investors like pension funds, university endowments, and even national governments to add them to their portfolios.

與Dogecoin不同，其他早期的加密貨幣（如比特幣）（2009年推出）和以太坊（於2015年推出）吸引了不斷增長的主流接受。這兩種資產均已批准用於交易所交易基金（ETF），該資金為養老基金，大學捐贈甚至國家政府等機構投資者打開了大門，將其添加到其投資組合中。

These deep-pocketed organizations can have a stabilizing effect on crypto prices because they tend to hold for the long haul instead of panic-selling to take profits or pay for real-life emergencies.

這些耗費的組織可能會對加密貨幣價格產生穩定的影響，因為它們傾向於長期持續使用，而不是為了獲得利潤或支付現實生活中的緊急情況。

On the other hand, Dogecoin attracts a more retail-oriented crowd that is easily swayed by statements from influencers like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has frequently promoted Dogecoin to his 220 million followers on X (formerly Twitter). While positive posts can boost an asset's price in the short term, they aren't enough to create sustainable value.

另一方面，Dogecoin吸引了一個更加零售業的人群，這很容易受到特斯拉首席執行官Elon Musk等影響者的言論，後者經常將Dogecoin晉升為X（以前是Twitter）的2.2億追隨者。儘管正面帖子可以在短期內提高資產的價格，但它們不足以創造可持續價值。

Furthermore, Dogecoin's history of price booms and busts has likely become a negative feedback loop, scaring away long-term investors and attracting even more short-term speculators looking for a quick buck.

此外，Dogecoin的價格繁榮和蕭條的歷史可能已成為一個負面的反饋循環，嚇跑了長期投資者，並吸引了更多的短期投機者，他們希望快速尋求賺錢。

What about the fundamentals?

基本面呢？

While cryptocurrencies can't be valued based on traditional stock market metrics like revenue or earnings growth, that doesn't mean they don't have fundamentals. Unfortunately for Dogecoin investors, this volatile meme coin wasn't designed to be a good store of value.

儘管基於傳統的股票市場指標，例如收入或收益增長，這並不意味著它們沒有基本面。不幸的是，對於Dogecoin投資者來說，這種揮發性的模因硬幣並不是一個良好的價值存儲。

The number of Dogecoin in circulation is programmed to increase by 5 billion units annually. With roughly 148.5 billion units in circulation, that's an inflation rate of 3.3%, which is higher than the U.S. dollar right now. While that number looks small (and will actually shrink over time), the number of coins will pile up over the long term, making Dogecoin less attractive than alternative cryptocurrencies with deflationary designs.

流通中的狗狗數量每年增加50億個單位。流通量約為1485億台，通貨膨脹率為3.3％，高於目前的美元。雖然這個數字看起來很小（並且隨著時間的流逝實際上會收縮），但長期的硬幣數量將堆積起來，這使得多黴素的吸引力低於帶有放氣設計的替代加密貨幣。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

Dogecoin also isn't optimized for smart contracts, which are applications built on top of a blockchain network. And with a transaction speed of around one minute, it may beat Bitcoin but it's still significantly slower than newer alternatives like Solana, which can process transactions in seconds.

Dogecoin還沒有針對智能合約進行優化，這些應用程序是在區塊鍊網絡之上構建的應用程序。而且，交易速度約為一分鐘，它可能會擊敗比特幣，但是​​它仍然比Solana這樣的新替代方案要慢得多，Solana可以在幾秒鐘內處理交易。

What could the next year have in store?

第二年可能會有什麼？

While Dogecoin can outperform other cryptocurrencies during a bull market, its speculative community, inflationary design, and lack of real-world utility will cause it to lag when hype fades. With industry excitement starting to die down after Trump's election, investors should expect Dogecoin to continue declining over the coming months.

儘管Dogecoin在牛市期間可以勝過其他加密貨幣，但其投機性社區，通貨膨脹設計和缺乏現實世界的實用程序將在炒作淡出時會滯後。隨著特朗普當選後的行業興奮開始消失，投資者應該期望Dogecoin在未來幾個月內繼續下降。