特朗普的關稅如何振作加密，債券和比特幣作為避風港的角色

2025年4月5日，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）對其他國家徵收至少10％的關稅，其中一些稅率更高

On April 5, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed at least a 10% tariff on other countries, with some slapped at higher rates—the European Union at 20%, Japan at 24%, and China at 34%. This also ignited global recession fears that caused investors to sell off risk assets.

2025年4月5日，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）對其他國家徵收至少10％的關稅，其中一些稅率更高，歐盟為20％，日本為24％，中國為34％。這也引發了全球衰退的擔憂，導致投資者出售風險資產。

Less than a week after the imposition, Trump announced a temporary halt to the tariff. This, however, led to a bullish run in the crypto market.

強加後不到一周，特朗普宣布暫時停止關稅。但是，這導致了加密貨幣市場的看漲。

Similar to cryptocurrencies, another investment asset has been impacted by tariffs and other economic moves by the U.S. government. And apparently, it has a relationship with the crypto market—most specifically Bitcoin. These are U.S. Treasuries.

與加密貨幣類似，美國政府受到關稅和其他經濟遷移的影響。顯然，它與加密貨幣市場有關係 - 特別是比特幣。這些是我們的國庫。

Financial Securities: How Can They Be Affected by Even a Single Economic Move

金融證券：即使是一次經濟遷移，它們如何受到影響

In an April 4, 2025, analysis—a day before the new tariff imposition—financial markets aggregator Barchart reported that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since October 2024.

在2025年4月4日的分析（在新的關稅徵收之前的一天）中，金融市場聚合商Barchart報告說，自2024年10月以來，美國10年期債收益率首次下降了4％。

According to Barchart, the drop in the U.S. Treasury yield was due to investor fears over growing economic uncertainty, including tariffs, a possible recession and a rate cut by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve.

根據巴爾查特（Barchart）的說法，美國財政收益率的下降是由於投資者擔心經濟不確定性的越來越多，包括關稅，可能的衰退和美國央行美聯儲削減的稅率。

And because U.S. Treasury yields include interest rates on government-issued bonds, Treasury bond yields also experienced a drop at that time.

而且，由於美國財政部收益率包括政府發行的債券的利率，所以當時的財政債券收益率也有所下降。

However, on April 7, 2025, the first Monday after the tariff, Treasury bond yields surged while equities declined. Historically, these two securities are inversely related in terms of performance.

但是，在2025年4月7日，即關稅之後的第一個星期一，國庫券的收益激增，而股票下降。從歷史上看，這兩種證券在績效方面是成反比的。

According to the online publication AInvest, because Trump’s tariff caused stock markets to meltdown, investor demand for U.S. Treasuries—including bonds—fluctuated.

根據在線出版物Ainvest的說法，由於特朗普的關稅導致股票市場崩潰，投資者對美國國債（包括債券）的需求匯集起來。

Then Here Comes Bitcoin: Its Relationship w/ Financial Securities

然後是比特幣：與金融證券的關係

Pre-tariff imposition, where the U.S. treasury yield was struggling, the crypto market was having a positive rally, including BTC.

宣布前徵收的，美國財政部收益掙扎的地方，加密貨幣市場在包括BTC在內的積極集會。

Moreover, historical data shows that when the U.S. Treasury yield struggles, investors tend to seek other investment assets which could offer higher returns, including BTC, which increases liquidity and risk appetite.

此外，歷史數據還表明，當美國財政部收益鬥爭時，投資者傾向於尋求其他投資資產，這些資產可以提供更高的回報，包括BTC，這會增加流動性和風險偏好。

“The irony is that when yields fall, there’s less reason to sit in ‘safe’ bonds— And ultimately more reason to chase returns in risk assets like BTC and alts. This is why you see risk-on bulls get excited when 10-year yields begin falling.”

“具有諷刺意味的是，當收益率下降時，有更少的理由坐在'安全''債券中，最終有更多理由追逐BTC和ALTS等風險資產的回報。這就是為什麼當10年期收益率開始下降時，風險持續的公牛會感到興奮的原因。”

On the other hand, the post-tariff period caused U.S. Treasury yields to rise while the crypto market and equities went down. Investors sought less risky investment assets with fixed interest, unlike BTC, which is volatile in nature.

另一方面，競選後時期導緻美國國庫的收益率上升，而加密市場和股票下跌。與BTC不同，投資者要求使用固定利息的風險投資資產較少，而BTC本質上是波動的。

“If inflation continues to exceed expectations, central banks might maintain a tighter monetary policy for longer periods, which historically has been unfavorable for risk assets. This potential shift necessitates a reevaluation of Bitcoin’s role in diversified portfolios, particularly as it may increasingly function independently from equities.”

“如果通貨膨脹率繼續超過預期，中央銀行可能會在更長的時間內維持更嚴格的貨幣政策，這在歷史上對風險資產不利。這種潛在的轉變必須重新評估比特幣在多元化投資組合中的作用，尤其是因為它越來越多地獨立於公平運作。”

However, in terms of a long-term store of value, BTC is seen as the better asset. Analysts believe Trump’s aggressive tariff policy could produce inflationary pressure—tariff-related costs would rise, consumer prices would follow, and the global economy could be affected.

但是，就長期價值存儲而言，BTC被視為更好的資產。分析人士認為，特朗普的積極關稅政策可能會產生通貨膨脹壓力 - 與衛生相關的成本將上升，消費者價格隨之而來，並且全球經濟可能會受到影響。

This, in turn, could cause investors to choose BTC over other investment instruments.

反過來，這可能會導致投資者選擇BTC而不是其他投資工具。

Lastly, if the Federal Reserve decides to use QE to improve the country’s economic situation, BTC and the crypto market could recover and experience a bullish rally, according to Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, a peer-to-peer trading platform specializing in leveraged contracts traded in BTC.

最後，如果美聯儲決定利用量化寬鬆來改善該國的經濟狀況，BTC和加密貨幣市場可以恢復並體驗看漲的集會，這是一家專門從事BTC交易合同的同伴交易平台Bitmex的創始人Arthur Hayes。

“We need Fed easing, the 2yr treasury yield dumped after Tariff announcement because the market is telling us the Fed will be cutting soon and possibly restarting QE to counter -ve economic impact.”

“我們需要輕鬆放鬆，在關稅公告後傾倒了2年的國庫，因為市場告訴我們美聯儲將盡快減少，並可能重新啟動量化寬鬆以抵制經濟影響。”

The same sentiment was expressed by crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, who stated that BTC could reach its new all-time high if the Federal Reserve opts for QE.

加密分析師Miles Deutscher表達了同樣的觀點，他說，如果美聯儲選擇量化寬鬆，BTC可以達到其新的歷史最高水平。

To Conclude

總結

Here is how financial securities and BTC behave according to different economic situations.

這是金融證券和BTC根據不同的經濟情況的行為。

This article is published on BitPinas: How Trump's Tariffs Are Shaking Up Crypto, Bonds, and Bitcoin's Role as a Safe Haven

本文發表了有關Bitpinas的文章：特朗普的關稅如何振作加密，債券和比特幣作為避風港的角色