TON令牌陷阱：氣水，模仿者和回報遞減的周期

在加密貨幣世界中，價格代表在任何給定時間的供求平衡。當項目通過氣水分配大量代幣時，由此產生的銷售壓力會帶來長期挑戰。

In the realm of cryptocurrency, price serves as a barometer of the delicate balance between supply and demand at any given moment. When projects opt to distribute a substantial portion of their tokens through airdrops, the ensuing selling pressure can pose long-term challenges. While airdrops aim to accelerate adoption, they may also introduce volatility into the price dynamics.

在加密貨幣領域，價格是任何給定時刻供應和需求之間微妙平衡的晴雨表。當項目選擇通過氣水分發其代幣的大部分時間時，隨後的銷售壓力可能會帶來長期的挑戰。儘管AirDrops旨在加速採用，但它們也可能引入價格動態的波動性。

Take Notcoin, for instance. Its highly anticipated launch last May propelled its market capitalization into the billions, generating丰厚報酬for early adopters. However, a lower initial market cap might have provided the project with a more stable trajectory, helping to mitigate pump-and-dump cycles and pave the way for sustained growth.

以NotCoin為例。其備受期待的推出去年5月推動了其市值投入數十億美元，為早期採用者帶來了豐厚報酬。但是，較低的初始市場上限可能為該項目提供了更穩定的軌跡，有助於減輕泵和降低週期，並為持續增長鋪平道路。

Despite its initial success, Notcoin set the stage for a wave of imitators. Many subsequent Telegram mini-apps shifted from a "play-to-earn" model to a "pay-to-earn" system, redirecting incentives from users to investors. The question arises: Who absorbs the deluge of tokens when recipients begin selling?

儘管最初取得了成功，但Notcoin為一波模仿者奠定了基礎。隨後的許多Telegram迷你應用程序從“播放到歐文”模型轉變為“付費歐文”系統，將激勵措施從用戶轉移到投資者。問題出現：誰在接收者開始銷售時吸收了代幣的洪水？

The Market's Response: Diminishing Returns

市場的回應：收益遞減

Investor sentiment plays a pivotal role in determining the sustainability of any price movement. When buyers anticipate long-term returns, tokens appreciate in value; conversely, sell-offs lead to a decline in market caps. While Notcoin's early investors enjoyed gains of up to 400%, most Telegram mini-app tokens that followed yielded diminishing returns.

投資者的情緒在確定任何價格變動的可持續性方面起著關鍵作用。當買家預計會有長期回報時，代幣會欣賞價值；相反，拋售導致市值下降。儘管Notcoin的早期投資者享有高達400％的收益，但隨後的大多數Telegram Mini-App代幣都會降低迴報。

A glance at the data reveals this pattern:

一眼數據揭示了這種模式：

As evident from the chart above, each successive token launch encountered difficulty in sustaining investor confidence. Prices declined rapidly, creating a cycle of waning enthusiasm and falling market caps.

從上圖可以明顯看出，每個連續的令牌發布都在維持投資者的信心方面遇到了困難。價格迅速下降，創造了一個衰落的熱情和市值下降的循環。

Breaking the Cycle: A Sustainable Approach

打破週期：一種可持續的方法

To restore faith in TON-based tokens, developers must reconsider their launch strategies. Instead of prioritizing immediate price spikes, a sustainable model should focus on the following:

為了恢復對基於噸的令牌的信念，開發人員必須重新考慮其發布策略。可持續模型不必優先考慮即時價格上漲，而應重點介紹以下內容：

Organic price discovery rather than artificially inflated valuations

有機價格發現，而不是人為地膨脹的估值

Utility-driven growth to ensure long-term engagement

公用事業驅動的增長以確保長期參與

Strategic exchange listings that foster liquidity

促進流動性的戰略交流清單

Robust trading infrastructure, including DEX aggregators and advanced analytics tools

強大的交易基礎架構，包括DEX聚合器和高級分析工具

The aim is to break away from the current CEX -> DROP -> DEATH cycle, which harms traders, projects, and the broader ecosystem. A successful pivot will hinge on a combination of on-chain data transparency, trading incentives, and well-structured tokenomics.

目的是脫離當前的CEX - > drop->死亡週期，這會損害貿易商，項目和更廣泛的生態系統。成功的樞軸將取決於鏈上數據透明度，交易激勵措施和結構良好的令牌組的結合。

A New Dawn for TON Tokens?

噸代幣的新黎明？

A single breakout success story could shift investor sentiment and reignite interest in TON-based projects. Similar transformations have unfolded in other ecosystems, such as Solana and Ethereum, where one high-profile launch triggered waves of liquidity and participation.

單一的突破成功故事可以改變投資者的情緒，並重新點燃基於噸的項目的興趣。在其他生態系統（例如Solana和Ethereum）中也發生了類似的轉變，其中一個引人注目的發射引發了流動性和參與浪潮。

With improved infrastructure and smarter launches, TON has the potential to reverse this downward trend. The question remains—who will lead the charge?

隨著基礎設施和更智能的推出，Ton有可能扭轉這一下降趨勢。問題仍然存在 - 誰會領導？