技術分析暗示比特幣湧入和加密市場的轉折點

加密貨幣分析師 Willy Woo 表示，比特幣（BTC）流入可能已達到最低點。該評估基於一項技術指標，該指標採用「旋轉瓶子技術」將訊號計算為 0 到 1 之間隨機數的 24 小時簡單移動平均線 (SMA)。該指標的當前數據表明，空頭短期加密貨幣市場將出現短期價格波動。

Technical Analysis Reveals Potential Inflection Point for Bitcoin Inflows and Cryptocurrency Market

技術分析揭示了比特幣流入和加密貨幣市場的潛在轉折點

According to cryptocurrency technical analyst Willy Woo, the cryptocurrency market may be on the cusp of a significant shift, particularly in terms of Bitcoin (BTC) inflows. Woo's analysis draws upon a novel technical indicator known as the "spin the bottle technique," which utilizes the simple moving average (SMA) of a randomized number between 0 and 1 to gauge short-term market sentiment.

加密貨幣技術分析師 Willy Woo 表示，加密貨幣市場可能正處於重大轉變的風口浪尖，特別是在比特幣（BTC）流入方面。 Woo 的分析借鑒了一種稱為「旋轉瓶子技術」的新穎技術指標，該指標利用 0 到 1 之間隨機數字的簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 來衡量短期市場情緒。

The indicator's latest findings suggest that Bitcoin inflows, which have been steadily declining in recent months, may have reached their nadir. This interpretation is based on the observation that the indicator's signal, representing the 24-hour SMA of the random number, has been trending sideways in recent days.

該指標的最新發現表明，近幾個月來一直在穩步下降的比特幣流入量可能達到最低點。這種解釋是基於對指標訊號（代表隨機數的 24 小時 SMA）的觀察，最近幾天一直呈現橫盤趨勢。

While the indicator's precise predictive power remains uncertain, Woo's assessment is consistent with other market observations. Notably, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), another key metric used to track Bitcoin profitability, recently reached its highest level since the bull market peak in November 2021. This surge in SOPR suggests that a significant portion of Bitcoin holders are currently taking profits, a trend that could potentially lead to market consolidation and a pause in the recent upward momentum.

儘管該指標的精確預測能力仍不確定，但吳的評估與其他市場觀察一致。值得注意的是，用於追蹤比特幣盈利能力的另一個關鍵指標支出產出利潤率（SOPR）最近達到了自2021 年11 月牛市高峰以來的最高水平。SOPR 的飆升表明很大一部分比特幣持有者目前正在獲利了結，這一趨勢可能會導致市場整合並暫停近期的上漲勢頭。

However, Woo cautions against overinterpreting this signal, particularly in light of Bitcoin's broader bullish structural trend. He notes that market consolidation, while potentially frustrating for short-term traders, is a natural part of the market cycle and often precedes further upward price action.

然而，Woo 警告不要過度解釋這一訊號，特別是考慮到比特幣更廣泛的看漲結構趨勢。他指出，市場整合雖然可能令短期交易者感到沮喪，但它是市場週期的自然組成部分，通常先於價格進一步上漲。

Moreover, Woo's analysis highlights the concept of "degen levels," referring to excessive leverage and risk-taking behavior in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. While leverage can amplify potential gains, it can also exacerbate losses, and excessive leverage often precedes market corrections. Woo's analysis indicates that current leverage levels in perpetual futures contracts are not yet at the extreme levels typically associated with market resets, suggesting that a full-blown market sell-off is not imminent.

此外，Woo 的分析強調了「退化水準」的概念，指的是加密貨幣衍生性商品市場中的過度槓桿和冒險行為。雖然槓桿可以放大潛在收益，但也可能加劇損失，而過度槓桿往往會導致市場調整。吳的分析表明，永續期貨合約目前的槓桿水平尚未達到通常與市場重置相關的極端水平，這表明全面的市場拋售尚未迫在眉睫。

The presence of these "degen levels," however, underscores the need for caution in the short term. Woo estimates that a 10-20% reduction in these leverage levels would be necessary to create a more balanced market environment conducive to sustained growth. This deleveraging process could potentially lead to short-term price volatility, but Woo believes it is ultimately necessary for the long-term health of the market.

然而，這些「退化水平」的存在強調了短期內需要謹慎行事。 Woo估計，為了創造一個有利於持續成長的更平衡的市場環境，有必要將這些槓桿水平降低10-20%。這種去槓桿化過程可能會導致短期價格波動，但吳認為這對市場的長期健康最終是必要的。

Despite the potential for short-term market turbulence, Woo remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, particularly in light of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for 2024. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with significant price volatility in the short term, followed by extended periods of upward price appreciation.

儘管短期市場動盪的可能性，Woo 對比特幣的長期前景仍然持樂觀態度，特別是考慮到即將到來的2024 年比特幣減半事件。從歷史上看，比特幣減半與短期內價格大幅波動有關，其次價格長期上漲。

Woo encourages investors to adopt a patient and long-term perspective during periods of consolidation and short-term volatility. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on fundamental factors rather than short-term price fluctuations, which are often driven by sentiment and noise rather than underlying fundamentals.

吳鼓勵投資者在盤整和短期波動期間採取耐心和長期的觀點。他強調關注基本面因素而不是短期價格波動的重要性，短期價格波動往往是由情緒和噪音而非潛在基本面驅動的。

In times of market uncertainty, Woo stresses the need for a well-defined risk management strategy and a commitment to holding for the long term. By weathering the storms of short-term volatility and maintaining a focus on the long-term growth potential of cryptocurrencies, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the transformative power of these nascent assets.

在市場不確定的時期，Woo 強調需要製定明確的風險管理策略並致力於長期持有。透過抵禦短期波動的風暴並持續關注加密貨幣的長期成長潛力，投資者可以利用這些新興資產的變革力量。