Solana 網路交易量下降 30%，SOL 價格未能守住 200 美元

Solana 的原生代幣 SOL 在 12 月 25 日至 26 日期間多次被拒絕後未能維持在 200 美元以上的水平。

Solana's native token (SOL) faced selling pressure after failing to hold above the $200 level, sparking concerns about further price declines. Despite ranking second in weekly volumes, Solana underperformed with a 5.1% correction.

Solana 的原生代幣 (SOL) 在未能守住 200 美元水平後面臨拋售壓力，引發了人們對價格進一步下跌的擔憂。儘管 Solana 的周成交量排名第二，但表現不佳，回調了 5.1%。

The cryptocurrency dropped sharply on Monday, countering the broader market trend and raising questions among traders. One factor contributing to the sell-off was a 30% decrease in Solana's onchain network volumes over seven days.

該加密貨幣週一大幅下跌，與大盤趨勢背道而馳，並引發了交易者的質疑。導致拋售的因素之一是 Solana 的鏈上網路交易量在 7 天內下降了 30%。

Solana's DApp activity also saw a downturn, with Orca and Phoenix showing 39% and 30% declines, respectively. Of greater concern, memecoins on Solana, which have been a significant driver of new users, posted poor 30-day performance.

Solana 的 DApp 活動也出現下滑，Orca 和 Phoenix 分別下降了 39% 和 30%。更令人擔憂的是，Solana 上的 memecoin 一直是新用戶的重要推動力，但 30 天表現不佳。

Onchain activity, spanning token launches, staking, and trading, is crucial for demand. Among memecoins, Popcat fell 42% in the 30 days leading to Dec. 27, Dogwifhat (WIF) declined 40%, and BONK dropped 25%. In contrast, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization remained flat over the same period.

包括代幣發行、質押和交易在內的鏈上活動對於需求至關重要。在 memecoin 中，Popcat 在截至 12 月 27 日的 30 天內下跌了 42%，Dogwifhat (WIF) 下跌了 40%，BONK 下跌了 25%。相比之下，加密貨幣總市值同期持平。

Notably, the correction was not exclusive to Solana-based memecoins, but Raydium's recent success had been heavily tied to the pump.fun memecoin frenzy. These challenges highlight the importance of sustaining onchain activity to maintain SOL demand.

值得注意的是，這種修正並不是基於 Solana 的 memecoin 所獨有的，但 Raydium 最近的成功與 Pump.fun memecoin 的狂熱密切相關。這些挑戰凸顯了維持鏈上活動以維持 SOL 需求的重要性。

Total deposits on the Solana network, as measured by total value locked (TVL), reached a two-year high of 44 million SOL. The 16% monthly increase was driven by platforms such as Binance Staked SOL, Jupiter, Drift, and Orca, according to DefiLlama data. On the downside, Jito, Sanctum, and MarginFi saw a decline in deposits.

Solana 網路上的總存款（以鎖定總價值 (TVL) 衡量）達到 4,400 萬 SOL 的兩年新高。根據 DefiLlama 的數據，每月 16% 的成長是由 Binance Staked SOL、Jupiter、Drift 和 Orca 等平台推動的。不利的一面是，Jito、Sanctum 和 MarginFi 的存款量有所下降。

SOL futures signals resilience despite price declineTo assess whether professional traders have turned bearish on SOL, the derivatives market offers key insights.

儘管價格下跌，SOL 期貨仍顯示出韌性 為了評估專業交易者是否轉而看跌 SOL，衍生性商品市場提供了重要的見解。

For example, monthly futures contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium in neutral markets. This premium compensates sellers for the longer settlement periods associated with these instruments.

例如，在中性市場中，每月期貨合約的年化溢價通常為 5% 至 10%。此溢價補償了賣方與這些工具相關的較長結算期。

While lower than the 20% premium recorded on Dec. 18, the current 10% premium is at the threshold of neutral-to-bullish sentiment. Considering SOL's 16% price decline during the same period, the derivatives market has shown resilience.

雖然低於 12 月 18 日記錄的 20% 溢價，但目前 10% 的溢價處於中性至看漲情緒的門檻。考慮到 SOL 同期價格下跌 16%，衍生性商品市場已表現出韌性。

To gauge retail traders’ sentiment, analyzing SOL perpetual futures is essential. Exchanges manage risk through funding rates, which become positive when buyers require additional leverage and negative when sellers dominate.

為了衡量零售交易者的情緒，分析 SOL 永續期貨至關重要。交易所透過融資利率管理風險，當買家需要額外槓桿時融資利率變為正值，而當賣方佔據主導地位時融資利率變為負值。

Over the past month, the SOL funding rate has remained below 0.015%—equivalent to an annualized 1.2%—indicating a neutral market. However, on Dec. 27, the rate turned negative, signaling reduced demand from leveraged longs (buyers). This shift is concerning, given that SOL has declined 30% since its all-time high of $264.50 on Nov. 20.

過去一個月，SOL 融資利率一直低於 0.015%（相當於年化利率 1.2%），顯示市場處於中性。然而，12 月 27 日，利率轉為負值，顯示槓桿多頭（買家）的需求減少。鑑於 SOL 自 11 月 20 日創下 264.50 美元的歷史高點以來已下跌 30%，這一轉變令人擔憂。