跡像已經存在：山寨幣季節可能在 2024 年到來

經濟學家 Henrik Zeberg 預測山寨幣將出現突破，其中 Solana (SOL) 是領先者，他的觀點與正在出現的模式一致

As 2024 draws to a close, many signs point towards the arrival of the next altcoin season. While Bitcoin has certainly had its moments in the sun this year, reaching new all-time highs after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November, it seems that investors are now shifting their focus towards alternative cryptocurrencies.

隨著 2024 年接近尾聲，許多跡像都表明下一個山寨幣季節即將到來。儘管比特幣今年確實有過輝煌的時刻，在唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 於 11 月贏得美國總統大選後創下了歷史新高，但投資者現在似乎正在將注意力轉向替代加密貨幣。

One of the key indicators of an altcoin season is a decrease in Bitcoin dominance. This metric measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market that is held by Bitcoin. When Bitcoin's dominance decreases, it often signals the start of an altcoin rally.

山寨幣季節的關鍵指標之一是比特幣主導地位的下降。此指標衡量比特幣佔加密貨幣市場總量的百分比。當比特幣的主導地位下降時，通常標誌著山寨幣反彈的開始。

A closer look at the Bitcoin dominance chart reveals an interesting pattern, known as a rising wedge. This pattern forms when the price makes higher and lower highs within a narrow range. Rising wedges are generally considered bearish signals, often predicting a price drop.

仔細觀察比特幣的主導地位圖表，就會發現一種有趣的模式，稱為上升楔形。當價格在窄幅區間內不斷創造更高或更低的高點時，就會形成這種形態。上升楔形通常被認為是看跌訊號，通常預示著價格下跌。

However, in the context of Bitcoin dominance, a rising wedge breakout could signal a significant shift in the market. The breakout from this wedge began in mid-November, suggesting that Bitcoin may lose market share to altcoins in the coming weeks.

然而，在比特幣佔據主導地位的背景下，上升楔形突破可能預示著市場的重大轉變。該楔形的突破始於 11 月中旬，這表明比特幣可能在未來幾週內將市場份額輸給山寨幣。

To better understand what might happen next during this altcoin season, let's compare it to two past alt-seasons that occurred in 2017-2018 and 2021.

為了更好地了解這個山寨幣季節接下來可能會發生什麼，讓我們將其與 2017-2018 年和 2021 年發生的兩個山寨幣季節進行比較。

Past Altcoin Seasons: A Closer Examination

過去的山寨幣季節：仔細檢查

In late 2017, the cryptocurrency market experienced a boom in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). Many new projects launched their own tokens to raise funds, and investors flocked to these new opportunities as a way to multiply their investments quickly.

2017 年底，加密貨幣市場經歷了首次代幣發行（ICO）的繁榮。許多新項目推出了自己的代幣來籌集資金，投資者紛紛湧向這些新機會，以快速增加投資。

As a result of this ICO mania, Bitcoin's dominance dropped from 86.3% at the end of 2017 to just 38.69% in early 2-18. During this period, the total market value of altcoins surged from $30 billion to over $600 billion.

由於 ICO 熱潮，比特幣的主導地位從 2017 年底的 86.3% 下降到 2-18 年初的 38.69%。在此期間，山寨幣的總市值從 300 億美元飆升至超過 6,000 億美元。

Some of the top altcoin performers of 2017 include Ethereum, which grew from $8 in January 2017 to over $1,400 by January 2018. Another standout performer was Ripple, which experienced a substantial growth from $0.006 to over $3. Litecoin also had a remarkable performance, climbing from $4 to nearly $350 by the end of 2017.

2017 年表現最好的一些山寨幣包括以太坊，它的價格從2017 年1 月的8 美元增長到2018 年1 月的1,400 美元以上。成長到3 美元以上。萊特幣也表現出色，到 2017 年底從 4 美元攀升至近 350 美元。

However, this excitement also led to many projects launching without real products or use cases. By early 2018, regulatory pressure and market saturation triggered a major correction, bringing the altcoin season to an abrupt end.

然而，這種興奮也導致許多專案在沒有實際產品或用例的情況下啟動。到 2018 年初，監管壓力和市場飽和引發了重大調整，導致山寨幣季節戛然而止。

Fast forward to 2021, and alt-season returned, but this time the focus had shifted. Instead of ICOs, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) drove the market to new heights.

快進到 2021 年，另類季節又回來了，但這次焦點發生了轉移。去中心化金融（DeFi）平台和不可替代代幣（NFT）取代了 ICO，將市場推向了新的高度。

Altcoins like Solana rose from $1.60 in early 2021 to over $250 by November. Other altcoins that gained popularity include Avalanche and Polygon, as investors sought scalable alternatives to Ethereum, which was struggling to keep up with the demand.

Solana 等山寨幣的價格從 2021 年初的 1.60 美元上漲到 11 月的 250 美元以上。其他受歡迎的山寨幣包括 Avalanche 和 Polygon，因為投資者尋求以太坊的可擴展替代品，而以太坊卻難以滿足需求。

This time around, projects with real-world applications saw the most growth, as the market matured and investors became more discerning. Altcoins like Filecoin, which provided decentralized storage solutions, and Chainlink, known for its oracle services, also performed well.

這一次，隨著市場的成熟和投資者變得更加挑剔，具有實際應用的項目增長最快。像是提供去中心化儲存解決方案的 Filecoin 和以其預言機服務而聞名的 Chainlink 等山寨幣也表現良好。

Signs of a New Altcoin Season in 2024

2024 年新山寨幣季節的跡象

Now, let's return to the present day and examine the signs that suggest the arrival of a new altcoin season in November 2024.

現在，讓我們回到現在，看看 2024 年 11 月新的山寨幣季節到來的跡象。

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin surged past the $100k mark after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. However, its dominance started to fall again, dropping from 55% at the beginning of the month to around 50% by mid-November. This change suggests that investors may be moving funds from Bitcoin into altcoins.

如前所述，唐納德·川普贏得美國總統大選後，比特幣飆升至 10 萬美元大關。然而，其主導地位再次開始下降，從月初的55%下降到11月中旬的50%左右。這一變化表明投資者可能正在將資金從比特幣轉移到山寨幣。

Major cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance and Coinbase are also reporting increased trading volume for altcoins. Solana, in particular, reached new highs this week, while other altcoins are also seeing price gains. This movement signals that capital is rotating into alternative projects, which could be a key sign of an upcoming alt-season.

Binance 和 Coinbase 等主要加密貨幣交易所也報告稱山寨幣交易量增加。尤其是 Solana，本週創下了新高，而其他山寨幣的價格也出現了上漲。這一趨勢表明資本正在轉向替代項目，這可能是即將到來的替代季節的關鍵跡象。

If you're wondering why else people believe that alt-season is just around the corner, here are a few more reasons:

如果您想知道為什麼其他人相信替代季節即將來臨，這裡還有一些原因：

The 1400-day cycle theory points to a pattern where Bitcoin's dominance peaks approximately every four years before declining. This cycle appears to be repeating, indicating that the market may enter a new phase where altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin.

1400 天週期理論指出了一種模式，即比特幣的主導地位大約每四年達到頂峰，然後就會下降。這個週期似乎正在重複，顯示市場可能進入一個新階段，山寨幣開始跑贏比特幣。

The current chart mirrors the pattern seen in 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply and altcoins rallied. If this pattern holds, the next few months could see explosive growth for altcoins.

目前的圖表反映了 2017 年和 2021 年的模式，其中比特幣的主導地位急劇下降，山寨幣則上漲。如果這種模式成立，未來幾個月山寨幣可能會爆炸性成長。

With these signs pointing towards an impending altcoin season, it's important to remember that

這些跡象表明山寨幣季節即將到來，重要的是要記住這一點