The Signs Are There: Altcoin Season May Arrive in 2024

Economist Henrik Zeberg has forecasted a breakout for altcoins, with Solana (SOL) being the leader, his opinions aligning with patterns emerging

As 2024 draws to a close, many signs point towards the arrival of the next altcoin season. While Bitcoin has certainly had its moments in the sun this year, reaching new all-time highs after Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November, it seems that investors are now shifting their focus towards alternative cryptocurrencies.

One of the key indicators of an altcoin season is a decrease in Bitcoin dominance. This metric measures the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market that is held by Bitcoin. When Bitcoin's dominance decreases, it often signals the start of an altcoin rally.

A closer look at the Bitcoin dominance chart reveals an interesting pattern, known as a rising wedge. This pattern forms when the price makes higher and lower highs within a narrow range. Rising wedges are generally considered bearish signals, often predicting a price drop.

However, in the context of Bitcoin dominance, a rising wedge breakout could signal a significant shift in the market. The breakout from this wedge began in mid-November, suggesting that Bitcoin may lose market share to altcoins in the coming weeks.

To better understand what might happen next during this altcoin season, let's compare it to two past alt-seasons that occurred in 2017-2018 and 2021.

Past Altcoin Seasons: A Closer Examination

In late 2017, the cryptocurrency market experienced a boom in Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs). Many new projects launched their own tokens to raise funds, and investors flocked to these new opportunities as a way to multiply their investments quickly.

As a result of this ICO mania, Bitcoin's dominance dropped from 86.3% at the end of 2017 to just 38.69% in early 2-18. During this period, the total market value of altcoins surged from $30 billion to over $600 billion.

Some of the top altcoin performers of 2017 include Ethereum, which grew from $8 in January 2017 to over $1,400 by January 2018. Another standout performer was Ripple, which experienced a substantial growth from $0.006 to over $3. Litecoin also had a remarkable performance, climbing from $4 to nearly $350 by the end of 2017.

However, this excitement also led to many projects launching without real products or use cases. By early 2018, regulatory pressure and market saturation triggered a major correction, bringing the altcoin season to an abrupt end.

Fast forward to 2021, and alt-season returned, but this time the focus had shifted. Instead of ICOs, decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) drove the market to new heights.

Altcoins like Solana rose from $1.60 in early 2021 to over $250 by November. Other altcoins that gained popularity include Avalanche and Polygon, as investors sought scalable alternatives to Ethereum, which was struggling to keep up with the demand.

This time around, projects with real-world applications saw the most growth, as the market matured and investors became more discerning. Altcoins like Filecoin, which provided decentralized storage solutions, and Chainlink, known for its oracle services, also performed well.

Signs of a New Altcoin Season in 2024

Now, let's return to the present day and examine the signs that suggest the arrival of a new altcoin season in November 2024.

As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin surged past the $100k mark after Donald Trump won the US presidential election. However, its dominance started to fall again, dropping from 55% at the beginning of the month to around 50% by mid-November. This change suggests that investors may be moving funds from Bitcoin into altcoins.

Major cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance and Coinbase are also reporting increased trading volume for altcoins. Solana, in particular, reached new highs this week, while other altcoins are also seeing price gains. This movement signals that capital is rotating into alternative projects, which could be a key sign of an upcoming alt-season.

If you're wondering why else people believe that alt-season is just around the corner, here are a few more reasons:

The 1400-day cycle theory points to a pattern where Bitcoin's dominance peaks approximately every four years before declining. This cycle appears to be repeating, indicating that the market may enter a new phase where altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin.

The current chart mirrors the pattern seen in 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply and altcoins rallied. If this pattern holds, the next few months could see explosive growth for altcoins.

With these signs pointing towards an impending altcoin season, it's important to remember that