Ripple指標暴跌，顯示加密貨幣市場的看跌情緒

由於 XRP 的關鍵鏈上指標（包括網路成長、平均幣齡和休眠幣齡）顯著下降，它面臨著巨大的拋售壓力。儘管根據 MVRV 比率被低估，但 XRP 的長期前景仍然不確定，因為它無法突破交易區間高點。雖然波段交易者可能會發現接近區間低點具有吸引力，但整體市場趨勢和歷史數據表明 XRP 在未來幾個月可能會繼續表現不佳。

Ripple's On-Chain Metrics Nosedive, Signaling Bearish Market Sentiment

Ripple的鏈上指標暴跌，顯示市場情緒看跌

Amidst a persistent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, Ripple [XRP] has become a primary victim, experiencing a significant decline in its on-chain metrics and price action.

在加密貨幣市場持續低迷的情況下，Ripple [XRP] 已成為主要受害者，其鏈上指標和價格走勢大幅下降。

Key Metrics Plummet

關鍵指標直線下降

Over the past several weeks, XRP's key on-chain metrics have witnessed a worrying downward trend. The mean coin age, an indicator of the average time that XRP tokens remain dormant, has been on a downward trajectory since March 23rd. This suggests increased movement of XRP tokens between addresses, potentially for selling purposes.

在過去的幾周里，XRP 的關鍵鏈上指標出現了令人擔憂的下降趨勢。平均幣齡是 XRP 代幣維持休眠狀態的平均時間的指標，自 3 月 23 日以來一直處於下降趨勢。這表明 XRP 代幣在地址之間的流動增加，可能用於銷售目的。

On April 12th, both the mean coin age and the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio plummeted sharply, coinciding with a steep drop in the asset's price. This behavior indicates that holders were selling their XRP in a panic, believing it was overvalued.

4 月 12 日，平均幣齡與 MVRV（市價與已實現價值）比率均大幅下跌，同時資產價格也大幅下跌。這種行為表明持有者恐慌地出售他們的 XRP，認為它被高估了。

Furthermore, the dormant coin age, representing the time period since coins have last been moved, saw a significant spike on April 12th. This spike further corroborates the notion of increased selling pressure.

此外，休眠代幣年齡（代表代幣上次移動以來的時間段）在 4 月 12 日出現顯著飆升。這一飆升進一步證實了拋售壓力增加的觀點。

Psychological Impact of Market Ranges

市場範圍的心理影響

According to an anonymous crypto analyst on X (formerly Twitter), a sharp drop like the one experienced by XRP in recent days typically leads to one of two outcomes. The first possibility is a V-shaped reversal, where prices recover swiftly. Alternatively, the downtrend may continue.

X（前 Twitter）上的一位匿名加密貨幣分析師表示，XRP 最近幾天經歷的急劇下跌通常會導致兩種結果之一。第一種可能性是V型反轉，價格迅速回升。或者，下降趨勢可能會持續。

However, if prices enter a period of consolidation and form a range, it can be challenging for new investors to maintain their holdings. XRP has been trapped within two distinct ranges for an extended period: a month-old range and an eight-and-a-half-month range.

然而，如果價格進入盤整期並形成區間，新投資者維持持有的股票可能會面臨挑戰。 XRP 在很長一段時間內一直被困在兩個不同的區間內：一個月前的區間和八個半月的區間。

Comparative Underperformance

表現比較不佳

Despite Bitcoin's substantial rally in February and mid-March, XRP's price movement has been considerably more modest. This underperformance suggests that the broader market appetite for XRP may be waning. While the proximity to the $0.46 range lows presents a potential buying opportunity for swing traders, it remains unclear whether XRP can outperform other large-cap cryptocurrencies in the coming months.

儘管比特幣在 2 月和 3 月中旬大幅上漲，但 XRP 的價格走勢卻相當溫和。這種表現不佳表明，更廣泛的市場對 XRP 的興趣可能正在減弱。雖然接近 0.46 美元區間低點為波動交易者提供了潛在的買入機會，但目前尚不清楚 XRP 在未來幾個月是否能跑贏其他大盤加密貨幣。

Historical Precedent and Future Prospects

歷史先例與未來展望

In April 2021, XRP experienced a similar period of underperformance, trapped beneath a resistance level of $0.65. However, within a matter of 15 days, XRP surged 243% to reach a high of $1.96. This meteoric rise occurred alongside Bitcoin's first突破60,000美元.

2021 年 4 月，XRP 經歷了類似的表現不佳時期，被困在 0.65 美元的阻力位下方。然而，在 15 天內，XRP 飆升 243%，達到 1.96 美元的高點。這一飛速上漲發生在比特幣首次突破 6 萬美元的同時。

Whether such a dramatic surge will occur again for XRP in the current market cycle remains uncertain. Investors should carefully consider the risks and uncertainties associated with XRP and the cryptocurrency market as a whole.

在當前的市場週期中，XRP 是否會再次出現如此大幅的飆升仍不確定。投資者應仔細考慮與 XRP 和整個加密貨幣市場相關的風險和不確定性。