Raoul Pal 預測「香蕉奇點」山寨幣季節將跟隨比特幣 BTC 突破 94,655 美元

Real Vision 聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Raoul Pal 表示，加密貨幣市場正處於“香蕉區”，並正在進入“香蕉奇點”，即“一切都在上漲”的時期。

Crypto markets are in the “Banana Zone” and heading into a “Banana Singularity,” or a period “when everything goes up,” according to Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal.

Real Vision 聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Raoul Pal 表示，加密貨幣市場正處於“香蕉區”，並正在進入“香蕉奇點”，即“一切都在上漲”的時期。

The “Banana Zone” is a term coined by Pal to describe a period of significant upward price movement.

「香蕉區」是帕爾創造的術語，用來描述價格大幅上漲的時期。

“Yes, we are still in the Banana Zone,” macro investor Raoul Pal said on X on Jan. 10, before adding that the first phase of this bull market was the breakout in November last year.

「是的，我們仍然處於香蕉區，」宏觀投資者拉烏爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）1月10日在X上表示，他補充道，本次牛市的第一階段是去年11月的突破。

That has been followed by the current period of consolidation — similar to the 2016/2017 cycle — Pal said, before adding: “This won’t last long.”

隨後是當前的盤整期（類似於 2016/2017 年周期），Pal 補充道：“這不會持續太久。”

Looking ahead, Pal said the next phase of the “Banana Zone” is a “Banana Singularity,” an altcoin season “when everything goes up, followed by a bigger consolidation.”

展望未來，帕爾表示，“香蕉區”的下一階段是“香蕉奇點”，這是一個山寨幣季節，“一切都會上漲，隨後會出現更大的整合”。

Altseason usually comes after Bitcoin BTC $94,655 dominance declines, and at the moment, it remains high at 58%, according to TradingView.

根據 TradingView 的數據，山寨幣季節通常發生在比特幣 BTC 94,655 美元的主導地位下降之後，目前仍保持在 58% 的高位。

In a separate X post on Jan. 10, DeFi researcher 0xNobler seemingly concurred with Pal, telling his 225,000 X followers that “Bitcoin just entered the acceleration phase,” with a prediction of a huge pump to $500,000 that will “ignite the biggest altseason in history.”

在1 月10 日的另一篇X 帖子中，DeFi 研究員0xNobler 似乎同意Pal 的觀點，他告訴他的225,000 X 粉絲，“比特幣剛剛進入加速階段”，並預測比特幣將大幅上漲至500,000 美元，這將“點燃有史以來最大的山寨幣季節”。

Still, futures trader CoinMamba was more pessimistic: “This sell-off is so bad that we will have an altseason just by prices going back to what it was one week ago.”

不過，期貨交易商 CoinMamba 的看法更為悲觀：“這次拋售非常嚴重，只要價格回到一周前的水平，我們就會迎來一個山寨季。”

Meanwhile, Pal said the third phase of the Banana Zone is “when the core winners explode on to make much higher highs or the ‘concentration phase.’”

同時，帕爾表示，香蕉區的第三階段是「核心贏家爆發並創造更高的高點或『集中階段』」。

Raoul Pal predicts “Banana Zone Phase 2”. Source: Raoul Pal

拉烏爾·帕爾 (Raoul Pal) 預測“香蕉區第二階段”。資料來源：拉烏爾帕爾

Despite this week’s market correction, crypto markets have gained 90% year-on-year in terms of total capitalization, which has climbed from around $1.8 trillion to current levels of $3.4 trillion after spending most of 2024 in consolidation.

儘管本週出現市場調整，但加密貨幣市場的總資本額同比增長了90%，在經歷了2024 年大部分時間的整合之後，總資本額已從約1.8 兆美元攀升至當前的3.4 兆美元水平。

Additionally, total market capitalization reached an all-time high of $3.9 trillion on Dec. 17, 27% higher than its peak in the previous cycle.

此外，總市值於 12 月 17 日達到 3.9 兆美元的歷史新高，比上一周期的峰值高出 27%。

Total crypto market capitalization over one year. Source: CoinGecko

一年內的加密貨幣總市值。來源：CoinGecko

Last year, Raoul Pal correctly predicted that crypto markets would rise in September before they broke out from consolidation.

去年，拉烏爾·帕爾 (Raoul Pal) 正確預測了加密貨幣市場將在 9 月突破整合之前上漲。

“As global liquidity rises, cryptocurrencies will rise, as will other markets like the Nasdaq,” he said at the time.

他當時表示：“隨著全球流動性的增加，加密貨幣將會上漲，納斯達克等其他市場也會上漲。”

In a separate post on Jan. 10, Pal shared charts depicting Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 money supply, showing similarities between the 2016/2017 cycle, when it dipped before climbing again.

在1 月10 日的另一篇文章中，Pal 分享了描繪比特幣與全球M2 貨幣供應量相關性的圖表，顯示了2016/2017 年周期的相似之處，當時比特幣先是下跌，然後再次攀升。

Related: Bitcoin whales have scooped up 34K BTC since December dump: Analyst

相關：分析師稱，自去年 12 月拋售以來，比特幣鯨魚已買入 3.4 萬枚 BTC

A Bitcoin Banana Zone was also predicted by Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of research Julien Bittel, who said, “Basically, it’s the boring zone before the Banana Zone,” in June 2024, following four months of sideways trading for BTC.

全球宏觀投資者(GMI) 研究主管Julien Bittel 也預測了比特幣香蕉區，他在2024 年6 月表示，“基本上，這是香蕉區之前的無聊區域”，此前BTC 已經經歷了四個月的橫盤交易。

Markets have been in the Banana Zone since they broke out of consolidation in early November in a move accelerated by Donald Trump’s presidential election victory.

自 11 月初市場突破盤整以來，市場一直處於香蕉區，唐納德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 總統選舉的勝利加速了這一走勢。

BTC was still correcting at the time of publication, having lost a further 1.3% on the day to trade at $93,370, about 9% down from its weekly high of just above $102,000 on Jan. 7.

截至發稿時，BTC 仍在調整中，當日進一步下跌 1.3%，至 93,370 美元，較 1 月 7 日略高於 102,000 美元的周高點下跌約 9%。

Magazine: Trump’s Bitcoin policy lashed in China, deepfake scammers busted: Asia Express

雜誌：川普的比特幣政策在中國受到猛烈抨擊，深度造假騙子被抓獲：亞洲快報

Explore more articles like this

探索更多類似的文章

Subscribe to the Markets Outlook newsletter

訂閱市場展望通訊

Get critical insights to spot investment opportunities, mitigate risks, and refine your trading strategies. Delivered every Monday

獲得重要見解以發現投資機會、降低風險並完善您的交易策略。每週一出貨

By subscribing, you agree to our Terms of Services and Privacy Policy

訂閱即表示您同意我們的服務條款和隱私權政策