鮑威爾延遲降息給市場帶來衝擊

傑羅姆鮑威爾最近的演講加劇了市場波動，因為他在考慮降息之前就表達了對通膨的擔憂。這項公告打破了先前對今年三度降息的預期，引發大宗商品和全球市場的強烈反應。黃金飆升至歷史新高，而銅和鋁等基本金屬的交易價格也處於高位。 10年期美國公債殖利率升至4.4%，反映出市場的不確定性。道瓊斯指數、標準普爾 500 指數和那斯達克指數等主要股指的反應不一。基於強勁的經濟數據和聯準會對控制通膨的關注，專家目前預測聯準會將在 2024 年底或 2025 年初降息。預計加密貨幣市場將受益於降息後的經濟繁榮，但這種投資仍比債券等傳統資產風險更高。

Jerome Powell's Stance on Rate Cuts Triggers Market Reaction

傑羅姆·鮑威爾的降息立場引發市場反應

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech has sent shockwaves through the financial markets, leading to a significant market reaction. Powell's comments, which indicated a delay in the anticipated rate cuts, have dashed hopes and sparked volatility in both the commodity and global markets.

聯準會主席鮑威爾近期的演講震驚金融市場，引發市場強烈反應。鮑威爾的言論表明預期降息的時間將被推遲，這讓人們的希望破滅，並引發了大宗商品和全球市場的波動。

Global Market Impact

全球市場影響

Global indices have responded swiftly to the news, with some exhibiting signs of improvement while others have experienced a downturn. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped slightly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have climbed higher. The Russell 2000 Index, which had been under pressure recently, has also shown a modest uptick. Notably, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen to elevated levels, signaling increased confidence in the bond market.

全球指數對此消息做出了迅速反應，其中一些指數顯示出改善的跡象，而另一些指數則經歷了低迷。道瓊工業指數小幅下滑，而標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克指數則攀升。近期承壓的羅素2000指數也出現小幅上漲。值得注意的是，10年期美國公債殖利率已升至較高水平，顯示人們對債券市場的信心有所增強。

Powell's Inflation Concerns

鮑威爾的通膨擔憂

In his speech, Powell emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious approach toward inflation before considering rate cuts. This cautious stance has tempered market expectations, which had previously been buoyed by Powell's earlier indication that three rate cuts could occur this year.

鮑威爾在演講中強調，聯準會在考慮降息前需要對通膨保持謹慎態度。這種謹慎的立場緩和了市場預期，此前鮑威爾早些時候表示今年可能會三次降息，從而提振了市場預期。

Stock Market's Rollercoaster Ride

股市的雲霄飛車之旅

The U.S. stock markets had reached all-time highs after the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts last year. This optimistic sentiment, coupled with falling bond yields, had fueled anticipation of imminent rate cuts. However, the recent speech has shattered those hopes, causing a sell-off in some sectors.

去年聯準會決定暫停降息後，美國股市創下歷史新高。這種樂觀情緒，加上債券殖利率下降，加劇了人們對即將降息的預期。然而，最近的演講讓這些希望破滅，導致一些行業遭到拋售。

Strong Economic Data Stimying Rate Cut Expectations

強勁的經濟數據刺激降息預期

Economic data released in December, including a rise in retail sales, has reinforced the Federal Reserve's focus on controlling inflation rather than promoting growth. Additionally, strong employment data released recently has further dampened expectations for near-term rate cuts.

12月公佈的經濟數據，包括零售銷售的成長，強化了聯準會對控制通膨而非促進成長的關注。此外，近期公佈的強勁就業數據進一步削弱了近期降息的預期。

Market Experts Look to Q4 2024

市場專家展望 2024 年第四季

Analysts now speculate that rate cuts may not occur until the fourth quarter of 2024. The strong market data and Powell's cautious stance have prompted experts to revise their forecasts.

分析師現在猜測降息可能要到2024年第四季才會發生。強勁的市場數據和鮑威爾的謹慎立場促使專家修改了預測。

Commodity Market's Positive Outlook

大宗商品市場的正面前景

Meanwhile, the commodity market remains robust, with gold trading near all-time highs and base metals such as copper and aluminum experiencing strong performance. This buoyancy reflects the global economic recovery and sustained demand for these materials.

同時，大宗商品市場依然強勁，黃金交易價格接近歷史高點，銅和鋁等基本金屬表現強勁。這種繁榮反映了全球經濟復甦和對這些材料的持續需求。

Crypto Market's Indirect Impact

加密市場的間接影響

The cryptocurrency market, often perceived as a riskier asset class, may indirectly benefit from future rate cuts. As the economy strengthens, investors typically allocate funds toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. This inflow of capital could drive up the value of crypto assets.

加密貨幣市場通常被視為風險較高的資產類別，可能間接受益於未來的降息。隨著經濟走強，投資者通常會將資金分配給風險較高的資產，包括加密貨幣。這種資本流入可能會推高加密資產的價值。

Summary

概括

Jerome Powell's speech has significantly impacted both the commodity and global markets. His inflation concerns have delayed anticipated rate cuts, leading to market volatility. While some sectors have responded positively, the stock market has suffered from diminished expectations. The commodity market remains bullish, but the crypto market is likely to react indirectly to the eventual reduction in interest rates.

傑羅姆·鮑威爾的演講對大宗商品和全球市場產生了重大影響。他對通膨的擔憂推遲了預期的降息，導致市場波動。儘管一些行業反應積極，但股市卻因預期下降而受到影響。大宗商品市場仍然看漲，但加密貨幣市場可能會對利率的最終降低做出間接反應。

Disclosure

揭露

The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as financial advice. Investing in stocks, cryptocurrencies, or other financial instruments involves significant risk, and investors should always conduct thorough research and consult with qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.

本文所表達的觀點和意見僅代表作者個人觀點，不應被視為財務建議。投資股票、加密貨幣或其他金融工具涉及重大風險，投資者在做出任何投資決定之前應始終進行徹底的研究並諮詢合格的專業人士。