持續的通膨壓力考驗聯準會對鷹派立場的承諾

在 2022 年達到四個十年高點後，通膨有所緩解，但仍遠高於聯準會 2% 的目標。最新數據表明，抑制價格壓力的進展可能已經停滯，一月和二月消費者物價增速有所回升。儘管如此，家庭支出的反彈顯示了更廣泛的經濟彈性，而聯準會維持利率穩定的決定反映了對經濟潛在實力的信心。

Persistent Inflation Pressure Tests Fed's Hawkish Resolve

持續的通膨壓力考驗聯準會的鷹派決心

After a period of rapid decline, inflation in the United States has exhibited signs of resurgence, posing a significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. Despite a slight moderation in consumer price growth, the latest data suggests that inflationary pressures remain elevated, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes.

美國通膨在經歷了一段時期的快速下滑後，出現回升跡象，對聯準會的貨幣政策策略構成重大挑戰。儘管消費者物價成長略有​​放緩，但最新數據顯示通膨壓力仍然較高，引發人們對聯準會激進升息有效性的擔憂。

Mixed Signals from Key Inflation Gauge

主要通膨指標的混合訊號

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, increased by 2.8% year-over-year in February. While this figure marked a slight decrease from the 2.9% annual rate recorded in January, it remained well above the Fed's target of 2%.

美國經濟分析局 (BEA) 報告稱，聯準會首選的通膨指標核心個人消費支出 (PCE) 指數 2 月年增 2.8%。雖然這一數字較 1 月的 2.9% 年利率略有下降，但仍遠高於聯準會 2% 的目標。

The core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also showed a moderate increase of 0.3% in February. This followed a revised 0.5% rise in January, the largest back-to-back gain in a year. Despite the slight cooling, the PCE remains elevated.

剔除波動較大的食品和能源成本的核心PCE價格指數2月也小漲0.3%。在此之前，1 月修正後上漲 0.5%，是一年來最大的背對背漲幅。儘管略有降溫，PCE 仍保持高位。

Powell Stresses Commitment to Hawkish Stance

鮑威爾強調堅持鷹派立場

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the central bank is not yet ready to pivot towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. He has cautioned that while recent inflation data shows signs of improvement, it remains above the Fed's target and requires further restraint.

聯準會主席鮑威爾多次強調，央行尚未準備好轉向更寬鬆的貨幣政策立場。他警告說，儘管近期通膨數據顯示出改善跡象，但仍高於聯準會目標，需要進一步克制。

Powell has explicitly stated that the Fed remains committed to keeping interest rates high until inflation is firmly on track to reach the 2% goal. He has also warned that the path to lower inflation will likely be "bumpy," indicating that the Fed is prepared to endure periods of economic volatility in order to achieve its price stability objective.

鮑威爾明確表示，聯準會仍致力於維持高利率，直到通膨堅定地達到2%的目標。他還警告說，降低通膨的道路可能會“崎嶇不平”，這表明聯準會準備忍受經濟波動時期，以實現其價格穩定目標。

Resilient Consumer Spending and Economic Outlook

富有彈性的消費者支出與經濟前景

Despite the elevated inflation, household spending has shown signs of resilience. The BEA reported that consumer spending rose by 0.8% in February, following a revised 2.1% gain in January. This rebound is a critical indicator of the underlying strength of the economy, as consumer spending drives the majority of economic activity in the United States.

儘管通膨率上升，家庭支出仍顯示出彈性跡象。 BEA 報告稱，繼 1 月修正後的成長 2.1% 後，2 月消費者支出成長 0.8%。這種反彈是經濟潛在實力的關鍵指標，因為消費者支出推動了美國大部分的經濟活動。

The Fed's decision to maintain interest rates at current levels reflects confidence in the economy's resilience. Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, there are clear signs of sustained economic activity, with unemployment remaining at historically low levels. This supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future, suggesting that the economy is well-positioned to withstand the Fed's tight monetary policy stance.

聯準會決定將利率維持在當前水準反映了對經濟韌性的信心。儘管通膨壓力持續存在，但有明顯跡象顯示經濟活動持續存在，失業率仍處於歷史低點。這支持了對未來謹慎樂觀的前景，顯示經濟處於有利地位，可以承受聯準會的緊縮貨幣政策立場。

Fed's Forward-Looking Perspective

聯準會的前瞻性視角

Powell has acknowledged that while the Fed is committed to its hawkish stance, it is monitoring incoming data and remains open to adjusting its policy stance in the future. He has indicated that the Fed could consider easing monetary policy "at some point this year" if inflation shows convincing signs of sustained moderation.

鮑威爾承認，儘管聯準會致力於保持鷹派立場，但它正在監控即將發布的數據，並對未來調整政策立場持開放態度。他表示，如果通膨顯示出持續放緩的令人信服的跡象，聯準會可能會考慮「在今年某個時候」放鬆貨幣政策。

This forward-looking perspective reflects the Fed's commitment to balancing immediate economic indicators with its long-term objective of price stability. The Fed's focus on both inflation trends and spending patterns underscores its determination to foster stable growth and achieve its 2% inflation target.

這種前瞻性視角反映了聯準會致力於平衡當前經濟指標與物價穩定的長期目標。聯準會對通膨趨勢和支出模式的關注凸顯了其促進穩定成長和實現 2% 通膨目標的決心。

Vigilance and Commitment

警覺和承諾

As the Fed continues its battle against inflation, policymakers will closely monitor incoming economic data for any signs of improvement or deterioration in inflationary pressures. February's core PCE reading provided a glimmer of hope, but the road ahead remains arduous. The Fed has made it clear that it will remain vigilant in its efforts to bring inflation under control and that it will not hesitate to adjust its policy stance as necessary to achieve its goals.

隨著聯準會繼續對抗通膨，政策制定者將密切關注即將發布的經濟數據，以發現通膨壓力改善或惡化的跡象。 2 月的核心 PCE 數據帶來了一線希望，但前方的道路仍然艱鉅。聯準會已明確表示，將在控制通膨的努力中保持警惕，並將毫不猶豫地根據需要調整政策立場以實現其目標。