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本週稍早在《環境研究快報》上發表的一篇透視文章以及《地球系統科學數據》中的數據顯示,過去五年來,地球大氣中的甲烷濃度一直在以創紀錄的速度上升。
Climate change is a pressing issue, and its effects are being felt worldwide. As we reported earlier this year, climate change made the summer of 2024 the hottest on record globally and for Europe. This calls for efforts to stabilize the climate by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, benefitting both the climate and our health.
氣候變遷是一個迫切的問題,其影響遍及全世界。正如我們今年稍早報導的那樣,氣候變遷使 2024 年夏季成為全球和歐洲有史以來最熱的夏季。這就需要努力透過減少溫室氣體排放來穩定氣候,從而使氣候和我們的健康受益。
Greenhouse gasses are those gasses that trap heat in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the prominent of these gases and is released by as a result of burning fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, and oil as well as trees and solid waste and as a result of certain chemical reactions such as cement production.
溫室氣體是那些在大氣中吸收熱量的氣體。二氧化碳 (CO2) 是這些氣體中的主要氣體,是由於燃燒煤炭、天然氣和石油等化石燃料以及樹木和固體廢物以及水泥生產等某些化學反應而釋放的。
Another example of greenhouse gas is nitrous oxide (N2O). It is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities during the treatment of wastewater and the combustion of fossil fuels. Fluorinated gasses, meanwhile, are emitted from a variety of household and commercial applications.
溫室氣體的另一個例子是一氧化二氮(N2O)。它是在農業和工業活動廢水處理和化石燃料燃燒過程中排放的。同時,各種家庭和商業應用都會排放氟化氣體。
Methane (CH4), on the other hand, is emitted during the production and transport of oil, natural gas, and coal. However, a vast majority of CH4 emissions actually come from human activities or “anthropogenic” sources like landfills, land use, livestock, and other agricultural practices. Natural sources like termites and wetlands, too, are also responsible for CH4 emissions.
另一方面,甲烷 (CH4) 是在石油、天然氣和煤炭的生產和運輸過程中排放的。然而,絕大多數 CH4 排放實際上來自人類活動或「人為」來源,如垃圾掩埋場、土地使用、牲畜和其他農業實踐。白蟻和濕地等自然來源也是甲烷排放的原因。
Now, let's take a closer look at methane emissions, which are rising globally and presenting a major obstacle to solving the climate change problem.
現在,讓我們仔細看看甲烷排放量,全球範圍內的甲烷排放量正在上升,並成為解決氣候變遷問題的主要障礙。
Methane Emissions Rising Faster than Ever
甲烷排放量比以往任何時候都成長得更快
A perspective article published earlier this week in Environmental Research Letters, alongside data in Earth System Science Data, revealed that concentrations of methane in Earth's atmosphere have been rising at a record speed over the past five years.
本週稍早在《環境研究快報》上發表的一篇透視文章以及《地球系統科學數據》中的數據顯示,過去五年來,地球大氣中的甲烷濃度一直在以創紀錄的速度上升。
The papers are the work of the Global Carbon Project, an initiative tracking greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.
這些論文是全球碳計畫的成果,該計畫是一項追蹤全球溫室氣體排放的倡議。
While over 150 countries have vowed to reduce methane emissions by 30% this decade under the Global Methane Pledge, that hasn't really been happening. This global commitment was launched in 2021 by the EU and the US.
儘管 150 多個國家已承諾根據全球甲烷承諾在本十年內將甲烷排放量減少 30%,但這一目標並未真正實現。這項全球承諾由歐盟和美國於 2021 年發起。
On the contrary, global methane emissions—two-thirds of which now come from human activities, including agriculture, fossil fuel use, landfills, and other waste—are actually rising faster than ever.
相反,全球甲烷排放量(其中三分之二現在來自人類活動,包括農業、化石燃料使用、垃圾掩埋場和其他廢棄物)實際上比以往任何時候都更快成長。
The trend “cannot continue if we are to maintain a habitable climate,” wrote the researchers in the paper.
研究人員在論文中寫道,「如果我們要維持適宜居住的氣候,這種趨勢就不可能持續下去」。
Atmospheric concentrations of CH4 are currently more than 2.6x higher than it was in pre-industrial times. In fact, it is right now the highest they've been in at least 800,000 years.
目前大氣中 CH4 濃度比工業化前高出 2.6 倍以上。事實上,目前這是至少 80 萬年來的最高水準。
The trajectory of rising methane emission rates is the most extreme one used by the world's leading climate scientists in emission scenarios. At this rate, it would lead to global warming above 5 degrees Fahrenheit or 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
甲烷排放率上升的軌跡是世界領先的氣候科學家在排放情境中所使用的最極端的軌跡。按照這個速度,到本世紀末,全球暖化將超過 5 華氏度或 3 攝氏度。
While methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas, as we noted above, it is highly potent, making it a prime target for limiting global warming in the near term.
正如我們上面所指出的,雖然甲烷是一種短暫的溫室氣體,但它的威力很強,使其成為短期內限制全球暖化的主要目標。
As a result, there has been a growing policy focus on methane emission reduction, but that hasn't really had any effect, as the total annual methane emissions have actually increased by 20% over the past two decades. Human contribution to the same has been the most at about 18% while natural sources, mostly from wetlands, only increased by 2% in two decades.
因此,政策越來越關注甲烷減排,但這並沒有真正產生任何效果,因為過去二十年每年甲烷排放總量實際上增加了 20%。人類對此的貢獻最大,約為 18%,而自然資源(主要來自濕地)在二十年來僅增加了 2%。
The 61 million-ton increase in CH₄ emissions has been primarily driven by oil and gas production and use, along with coal mining, whose emissions rose by 33%. Decomposing food and organic waste in landfills saw a 30% rise, while emissions from agriculture increased by 14%. The biggest human-connected source of methane emissions, Jackson noted, is cows.
CH₄排放量增加了6,100萬噸,主要是由石油和天然氣的生產和使用以及煤炭開採造成的,煤炭開採的排放量增加了33%。垃圾掩埋場分解的食物和有機廢棄物增加了 30%,而農業排放量增加了 14%。傑克森指出,與人類相關的最大甲烷排放源是乳牛。
Who's Leading the Rising CH4 Emission
誰在引領 CH4 排放量上升
When it comes to countries that are contributing the most to methane emitters, China (16%) ranks first.
在甲烷排放量最大的國家中,中國(16%)排名第一。
As the lead author of the Earth System Science Data paper, Marielle Saunois of the Université Paris-Saclay in France noted the largest regional increases in CH4 emission comes from China and Southeast Asia.
身為地球系統科學資料論文的主要作者,法國巴黎薩克雷大學的 Marielle Saunois 指出,CH4 排放量增加最大的地區來自中國和東南亞。
A separate study by Global Energy Monitor (GEM) recently warned that China's expansion of coal mines could further increase its methane emissions and threaten climate targets.
全球能源監測組織(GEM)最近的另一項研究警告稱,中國煤礦的擴張可能會進一步增加甲烷排放量並威脅氣候目標。
In 2023, China's coal production reached a record 4.7 billion tonnes, about 50% of global output. Now, the country is planning a project to increase production capacity by 1.2 billion tonnes annually. This expansion can increase methane emissions by 10 million tonnes.
2023年,中國煤炭產量達到創紀錄的47億噸,約佔全球產量的50%。目前,國家正在規劃年產能12億噸的增產項目。此次擴建將使甲烷排放量增加1000萬噸。
While China continues to invest in coal for energy and maintains a set of “inactive but operational” mines for urgent needs, the permits for coal-fired power plants dropped by 83% this year. This signals a possible shift in the country's energy policy.
儘管中國繼續投資煤炭能源,並維持一批「閒置但仍在運作」的煤礦以滿足緊急需求,但今年燃煤電廠的許可證數量下降了 83%。這標誌著該國能源政策可能轉變。
China is now followed by India (9%), the United States (7%),
緊隨中國之後的是印度(9%)、美國(7%)、
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