今天，對於加密貨幣市場來說，關鍵時刻是價值超過142.1億美元的比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）期權到期。

預計該活動將產生重大的短期價格波動，交易員正在密切關注它如何影響市場。

Today marks a crucial moment for the cryptocurrency market as over $14.21 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire. This event is expected to cause significant short-term price fluctuations, and traders will be closely watching to see how it could affect the market.

今天，對於加密貨幣市場來說，關鍵時刻是價值超過142.1億美元的比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）期權到期。預計這一事件將引起大幅的短期價格波動，交易者將密切關注，以了解其可能影響市場。

Bitcoin’s $12 Billion Expiry

比特幣的120億美元到期

Bitcoin options expiring today total $12.075 billion, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.49. This indicates that more traders are betting on Bitcoin’s price rising rather than falling. The “maximum pain” point, where most traders would experience losses, is at $85,000.

比特幣期權今天到期，總計120.75億美元，比率為0.49。這表明越來越多的交易者押注比特幣的價格上漲而不是下跌。大多數交易者會遭受損失的“最大痛苦”點為85,000美元。

With Bitcoin currently trading at $85,960, there’s a chance the price could dip slightly to meet this level.

由於比特幣目前的交易價格為85,960美元，因此價格可能會略有下跌以達到這一水平。

This quarterly expiry is particularly significant, as it makes up over 40% of the total open interest. Bitcoin dominates the expiry, accounting for nearly 80% of the volume, with Ethereum making up the remaining 20%.

該季度到期尤其重要，因為它佔總開放率的40％以上。比特幣占主導地位，佔該數量的近80％，以太坊佔剩餘的20％。

This massive expiry could stir up market sentiment and trigger notable price movements in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

這種龐大的到期可能會激起市場的情緒，並引發比特幣和以太坊的顯著價格變動。

Ethereum’s $2.1 Billion Expiry

以太坊的21億美元到期

For Ethereum, the total value of options expiring today is $2.135 billion. The put-to-call ratio for Ethereum is 0.39, indicating that most traders expect the price to go up rather than down. The maximum pain point for Ethereum is at $2,400.

對於以太坊而言，今天到期的期權的總價值為213.5億美元。以太坊的提議比率為0.39，表明大多數交易者期望價格上漲而不是下跌。以太坊的最大疼痛點為2,400美元。

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s volatility (IV) is flatter, meaning there’s less directional bias, but traders still anticipate movement.

與比特幣不同，以太坊的波動性（IV）是平坦的，這意味著方向偏見較小，但交易者仍然期望運動。

Despite concerns, Ethereum’s market structure remains stable. The first quarter ended on a weaker note, with volatility pushing prices toward the lower end of their range. However, Ethereum has been less affected by the options expiry compared to Bitcoin, which is why its price could experience more subtle changes in the short term.

儘管擔心，以太坊的市場結構仍然穩定。第一季度以較弱的音符結束，波動性將價格推向其範圍的下端。但是，與比特幣相比，以太坊受期權到期的影響較小，這就是為什麼其價格在短期內會經歷更細微的變化的原因。

A Larger-than-Usual Expiry

比平常大的到期

The expiry today is especially significant because it marks both the end of the month and the close of the first quarter of the year. Crypto options platform Deribit schedules expiries on Fridays to align with traditional financial markets, making today’s event even more important.

今天的到期尤其重要，因為它標誌著本月底和年度第一季度結束。加密選擇平台deribit時間表在星期五到期，以與傳統金融市場保持一致，從而使今天的活動變得更加重要。

Compared to last week’s $1.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry, today’s $14.21 billion expiry is far larger, signaling that a substantial shift in market sentiment could occur. This size difference is expected to cause increased volatility and could influence trader strategies going into the weekend.

與上週的18億美元比特幣期權到期相比，當今的142.1億美元到期的票房要大得多，這表明市場情緒可能發生很大變化。預計這種尺寸差異會導致波動性的增加，並可能影響到週末的交易者策略。

What Traders Expect

交易者期望的

Analysts from Greeks.live have noted that most traders expect Bitcoin to test lower levels between $84,000 and $85,000. Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range, so a significant price move could break this pattern and create new trends. Traders are also keeping an eye on resistance at $88,400, with strong support at $77,000.

Live的分析師指出，大多數交易者預計比特幣在84,000美元至85,000美元之間測試較低的水平。比特幣一直在狹窄的範圍內進行交易，因此價格轉移可能會破壞這種模式並創造新趨勢。貿易商還關注電阻為88,400美元，強勁的支持為77,000美元。

As for Ethereum, it is experiencing high trading volumes but no clear price direction. The expiry event could trigger adjustments in trading strategies based on implied volatility (IV), which has been fluctuating due to the quarterly expiry.

至於以太坊，它的交易量很高，但價格方向沒有明確的方向。到期的事件可能會觸發基於隱含波動率（IV）的交易策略的調整，由於季度到期，該事件一直在波動。

Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear

市場情緒：極端恐懼

Currently, the market sentiment is one of extreme fear, as shown by the Fear & Greed Index, which is at 33. While large investors, or “whales,” are purchasing, a significant Bitcoin transfer by the U.S. government and today’s $16.5 billion options expiry could cause short-term price swings. To stay in a bullish phase, Bitcoin would need to break above $90,000. However, the prevailing fear in the market has many traders remaining cautious, awaiting clearer signals before committing to major moves.

目前，市場情緒是極端的恐懼之一，如33歲的恐懼和貪婪指數所示。而大型投資者或“鯨魚”正在購買，這是美國政府的大量比特幣轉移，今天的165億美元期權可能會導致短期價格波動。要保持看漲階段，比特幣需要折扣90,000美元。但是，市場上普遍的恐懼使許多交易者保持謹慎，在承諾重大行動之前，等待更清晰的信號。