Marathon Digital Holdings 執行長 Fred Thiel 預測比特幣 (BTC) 價格將繼續上漲，否認減半影響

馬拉松數位控股公司（納斯達克股票代碼：MARA）執行長 Fred Thiel 週一在接受 CNBC 採訪時分享了他對比特幣的看好前景。

Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) CEO Fred Thiel shared his bullish outlook on Bitcoin in an interview with CNBC on Monday. He attributed the recent price surge to the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year, which sparked institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.

Marathon Digital（納斯達克股票代碼：MARA）執行長 Fred Thiel 週一在接受 CNBC 採訪時分享了他對比特幣的看好前景。他將最近的價格飆升歸因於今年稍早推出的現貨交易所交易基金（ETF），這引發了機構對加密貨幣的興趣。

“In January, you had the ETFs that launched that drove all of a sudden the beginnings of some institutional interest,” Thiel said.

「一月份，ETF 的推出突然引起了一些機構的興趣，」蒂爾說。

Initially, these ETFs attracted mainly retail investors, but Thiel observed a shift as institutional players entered the market. “Then you started seeing some pension funds starting to buy into ETFs and into Bitcoin-related equities like our stock or MicroStrategy‘s,” he added.

最初，這些 ETF 主要吸引散戶投資者，但泰爾觀察到隨著機構投資者進入市場，情況發生了變化。 「然後你開始看到一些退休基金開始購買 ETF 和比特幣相關股票，例如我們的股票或 MicroStrategy 的股票，」他補充道。

Thiel also highlighted the potential impact of political developments on the BTC market. “With the election, you know, Donald Trump ran on a platform that is very pro-Bitcoin—Bitcoin strategic reserve, mining in the US, etc.,” Thiel said. He suggested that such a stance could lead to a more supportive regulatory environment in the United States.

蒂爾也強調了政治發展對比特幣市場的潛在影響。 「你知道，在這次選舉中，唐納德·川普在一個非常支持比特幣的平台上競選——比特幣戰略儲備、在美國挖礦等等，」泰爾說。他表示，這種立場可能會在美國帶來更具支持性的監管環境。

“What that’s ended up driving is a huge belief that all of a sudden the regulatory environment for Bitcoin and crypto will get much better, that the US will double down and really invest in Bitcoin potentially,” he explained. This anticipated shift could pressure other nations to adopt similar policies, fostering global adoption.

他解釋說：“最終推動的是一種巨大的信念，即比特幣和加密貨幣的監管環境會突然變得更好，美國將加倍努力並真正投資比特幣。”這種預期的轉變可能會迫使其他國家採取類似的政策，從而促進全球採用。

Moreover, Thiel pointed out the robust market dynamics absorbing selling pressure from long-term holders. “Every single Bitcoin that had been purchased was in profit, and you started long-term holders who had held Bitcoin for years beginning to liquidate a little bit to take some profits,” he said.

此外，泰爾指出，強勁的市場動態吸收了長期持有者的拋售壓力。 「購買的每一個比特幣都是盈利的，而持有比特幣多年的長期持有者開始清算一點以獲取一些利潤，」他說。

Despite this, he emphasized the market’s resilience: “There is so much demand in the market that it just keeps soaking it up.”

儘管如此，他還是強調了市場的彈性：“市場需求如此之大，以至於不斷吸收。”

Addressing concerns about Bitcoin’s notorious volatility, Thiel asserted that significant drawdowns might be a thing of the past, at least in the near term. “The volatility of past years, where you would hit a peak and then see a 20% or 30% drawdown, I think are gone, at least for the near-term future,” he stated.

在談到對比特幣臭名昭著的波動性的擔憂時，蒂爾斷言，大幅回撤可能已成為過去，至少在短期內是如此。他表示：“我認為，過去幾年的波動性，即達到峰值，然後出現 20% 或 30% 的下跌，已經消失了，至少在不久的將來是這樣。”

He believes that institutional investors are poised to enter the market aggressively. “I think what we’re going to see is essentially institutions just waiting to buy up Bitcoin,” Thiel predicted.

他認為機構投資者已準備好積極進入市場。 「我認為我們將看到的基本上是機構等待購買比特幣，」泰爾預測。

He cited recent actions by major corporations to support his outlook. “You look at MicroStrategy—they’re [issuing a] $3 billion bond; they’re out there buying Bitcoin very aggressively,” he said. “We raised a $1 billion bond at 0% coupon the same week as Michael Saylor did, and we went out and acquired hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin.” Thiel emphasized that this trend is gaining momentum: “Lots of people are starting to do this now.”

他引用了大公司最近的行動來支持他的觀點。 「看看 MicroStrategy，他們正在[發行]30 億美元的債券；他們非常積極地購買比特幣，」他說。 “我們和 Michael Saylor 一樣，在同一周以 0% 的息票發行了 10 億美元的債券，然後我們購買了數億美元的比特幣。”泰爾強調，這種趨勢正在增強：“現在很多人都開始這樣做了。”

Concluding his insights, Thiel expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. “Anybody who’s selling is selling into a market where there’s ample demand, and I think that for the foreseeable future we’ll continue to see Bitcoin price move up—you know, up and down, up and down—but generally the trend will be upwards,” he said.

在總結他的見解時，泰爾表達了對比特幣上漲軌跡的信心。 「任何出售比特幣的人都是在向需求充足的市場出售，我認為在可預見的未來，我們將繼續看到比特幣價格上漲——你知道，忽上忽下，忽上忽下——但總體趨勢是向上，」他說。

notably, Cantor Fitzgerald recently adjusted its price target for MARA from $33 to $42. The revision follows Mara Holdings’ completion of a substantial $1 billion convertible note offering last week.

值得注意的是，Cantor Fitzgerald 最近將 MARA 的目標價從 33 美元調整至 42 美元。此前，Mara Holdings 上週完成了 10 億美元的可轉換票據發行。

From the $980 million raised, Mara used $199 million to buy back $222 million in principal of its 2026 convertible notes. With $781 million in proceeds remaining, the company plans to purchase additional Bitcoin, leveraging a strategy similar to MicroStrategy (MSTR).

在籌集的 9.8 億美元中，Mara 用 1.99 億美元回購了 2026 年可轉換票據本金 2.22 億美元。憑藉剩餘的 7.81 億美元收益，該公司計劃利用類似於 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 的策略購買額外的比特幣。

However, unlike MicroStrategy, which focuses purely on capital market maneuvers to accumulate Bitcoin, Mara also operates the largest publicly-traded Bitcoin mining operation by hash rate. Analysts at Cantor highlight this as a key differentiator with bullish potential.

然而，與純粹專注於資本市場累積比特幣的 MicroStrategy 不同，Mara 也經營著算力最大的公開交易比特幣挖礦業務。 Cantor 的分析師強調，這是一個具有看漲潛力的關鍵差異化因素。

At press time, BTC trades at $92,531.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 92,531 美元。