Justin Drake 推出 Beam Chain：以太坊的雄心勃勃的新計劃

在以太坊開發者年度大會Devcon（2024 年）上，以太坊領先研究員賈斯汀·德雷克(Justin Drake) 公佈了他迄今為止「最雄心勃勃的計劃」：Beam Chain，這是一個新的共識層，利用零知識(ZK) 技術來增強以太坊的基礎設施。

Our weekly take on the market!

我們每週對市場的看法！

Macro Overview — Rate Cut Hopes Dampened in the Wake of Strong Economy

宏觀概覽－經濟強勁後降息希望破滅

Recent strong economic and inflation data is reshaping the discussions among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding interest rate cuts. On Friday, investors further lowered their expectations for a rate reduction at the Fed's upcoming December 2024 meeting.

最近強勁的經濟和通膨數據正在重塑聯準會決策者關於降息的討論。週五，投資者進一步降低了對聯準會即將召開的 2024 年 12 月會議降息的預期。

This shift in sentiment follows a political change after Donald Trump's election, with Wall Street adjusting to the prospect of inflationary pressures from potential tax cuts, increased tariffs and immigration restrictions under the new administration. Although Fed officials have not explicitly factored these political developments into their considerations, market expectations for rate cuts have diminished over the past week.

這種情緒轉變是在唐納德·川普當選後發生的政治變化之後發生的，華爾街正在調整以適應新政府領導下的潛在減稅、增加關稅和移民限制帶來的通膨壓力的前景。儘管聯準會官員尚未明確將這些政治發展納入考慮範圍，但市場對降息的預期在過去一周有所減弱。

This aligns with the Fed's strategy of maintaining a data-dependent approach to monetary policy. Despite hopes for a December rate cut, recent data on retail sales, import prices and industrial production has remained strong, leading traders to largely rule out the possibility of a rate reduction this month.

這符合聯準會維持依賴數據的貨幣政策方針的策略。儘管人們對12月降息抱有希望，但最近的零售銷售、進口價格和工業生產數據仍然強勁，導致交易商在很大程度上排除了本月降息的可能性。

However, Fed officials have indicated that a pause in rate cuts would reflect a slower approach, rather than a complete halt. Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that while there isn't a pressing need to cut rates, December 2024 still remains a possibility. Others, including Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, have emphasized that any pause would indicate a slower approach, rather than a complete halt.

然而，聯準會官員表示，暫停降息將反映速度較慢，而不是完全停止。波士頓聯邦儲備銀行行長蘇珊柯林斯指出，雖然沒有迫切需要降息，但 2024 年 12 月仍有可能降息。包括里士滿聯邦儲備銀行行長托馬斯·巴爾金在內的其他人則強調，任何暫停都將表明行動將放緩，而不是完全停止。

Recent data, including strong retail sales and rising import prices, has led traders to reduce to around 60% the likelihood of a December rate cut. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has acknowledged that inflation indicators remain high, though he maintains a general expectation for inflation to trend toward the Fed's 2% target. He suggested the Fed might cut rates by a quarter point next month, and by a full percentage point throughout the next year, in line with projections from September. Investors now anticipate rates could remain higher than previously expected, with fresh projections set to be released in December.

最近的數據，包括強勁的零售銷售和不斷上漲的進口價格，導致交易商將 12 月降息的可能性降低至 60% 左右。芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長奧斯坦·古爾斯比承認通膨指標仍然很高，但他仍然普遍預期通膨將趨向聯準會2%的目標。他建議聯準會可能在下個月降息四分之一個百分點，並在明年全年降息整整一個百分點，與 9 月的預測一致。投資者目前預計利率可能仍高於先前預期，新的預測將於 12 月發布。

Weekly Crypto Highlight — Beam Chain: Justin Drake’s Ambitious New Plan for Ethereum

每週加密亮點 — Beam Chain：賈斯汀德雷克 (Justin Drake) 雄心勃勃的以太坊新計劃

At Devcon (2024), Ethereum’s annual conference for developers, excitement surged as Justin Drake, a leading Ethereum researcher, unveiled his "most ambitious initiative" yet: Beam Chain, a new consensus layer that utilizes zero-knowledge (ZK) technology to enhance Ethereum’s infrastructure.

在以太坊開發者年度大會Devcon（2024 年）上，以太坊領先研究員賈斯汀·德雷克(Justin Drake) 公佈了他迄今為止「最雄心勃勃的計劃」：Beam Chain，這是一個新的共識層，利用零知識(ZK) 技術來增強以太坊的基礎設施。

What Is Beam Chain?

什麼是梁鏈？

Ethereum operates on two layers: the execution layer, which handles transactions, and the consensus layer, which handles network security. Beam Chain aims to improve the Consensus Layer with several key benefits, as follows.

以太坊在兩層上運作：處理交易的執行層和處理網路安全的共識層。 Beam Chain 旨在改善共識層，具有以下幾個關鍵優勢。

Faster Confirmations: Reduces transaction confirmation times from 12 seconds to just 4 seconds.

更快的確認：將交易確認時間從 12 秒減少到僅 4 秒。

Enhanced Decentralization: Maintains or improves Ethereum’s decentralization.

增強去中心化：維持或改善以太坊的去中心化。

Reduced Bot Extraction: Eliminates certain bots that exploit users, particularly those using reorg-based miner extractable value (MEV).

減少機器人提取：消除某些利用使用者的機器人，特別是那些使用基於重組的礦工可提取價值（MEV）的機器人。

Lower Staking Requirements: Decreases the minimum ETH needed to stake from 32 ETH to just 1 ETH, making staking more accessible.

降低質押要求：將質押所需的最低 ETH 從 32 ETH 減少到僅 1 ETH，使質押變得更容易。

Quantum Resistance: Future-proofs Ethereum against potential quantum computing threats.

量子抵抗：讓以太坊面向未來，抵禦潛在的量子運算威脅。

Criticism and Responses

批評與回應

Despite the palpable excitement, the presentation faced criticism on the below fronts.

儘管令人興奮，但該簡報仍面臨以下方面的批評。

Timing: Many consider the five-year timeline too slow for the fast-paced crypto market.

時機：許多人認為五年的時間表對於快節奏的加密貨幣市場來說太慢了。

Response: Justin Drake explained that the estimate is conservative, with potential for an earlier rollout if progress is smooth.

回應：Justin Drake 解釋說，這一估計是保守的，如果進展順利，有可能提前推出。

Priority: Concerns arose that Ethereum isn’t effectively addressing competition from faster networks such as Solana.

優先事項：人們擔心以太坊無法有效解決來自 Solana 等更快網路的競爭。

Context: This criticism extends beyond Drake’s talk to the Ethereum Foundation’s broader approach. While his focus is on the consensus layer, there are ongoing efforts to improve Ethereum as a whole, with plans to enhance Layer 1 fragmentation set for adoption by 2025. Upcoming features like pre-confirmations and based rollups aim to further benefit Ethereum L1 validators.

背景：這種批評超越了德雷克對以太坊基金會更廣泛方法的談話範圍。雖然他的重點是共識層，但人們仍在努力改進整個以太坊，並計劃在2025 年之前增強第1 層碎片化的採用。坊L1 驗證者受益。

Conclusion

結論

Justin Drake’s presentation didn’t drastically shift opinions, but it did solidify bullish sentiment among Ethereum supporters, particularly regarding Layer 2 developments. Meanwhile, skeptics remain concerned about ETH's recent price performance, which has lagged behind that of Bitcoin and Solana. In the complex landscape of cryptocurrency, the Ethereum community recognizes the importance of careful, deliberate progress as they navigate substantial investments in this evolving space.

Justin Drake 的演講並沒有徹底改變觀點，但確實鞏固了以太坊支持者的看漲情緒，特別是在 Layer 2 開發方面。與此同時，懷疑論者仍然對 ETH 最近的價格表現感到擔憂，該價格表現落後於比特幣和 Solana。在加密貨幣的複雜格局中，以太坊社群認識到在這個不斷發展的領域進行大量投資時謹慎、深思熟慮取得進展的重要性。

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows

比特幣現貨 ETF 流量

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflows. Source: CoinGlass

比特幣現貨 ETF 淨流入總額。來源：CoinGlass

Inflows into Bitcoin Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant slowdown in the latter half of last week. This deceleration can be attributed to two main factors: profit-taking by investors, and the broader market's response to anticipated changes in monetary policy.

上週下半週，比特幣現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的資金流入大幅放緩。這種減速可歸因於兩個主要因素：投資者的獲利了結以及更廣泛的市場對貨幣政策預期變化的反應。

As Bitcoin's price surged in recent weeks, many investors have seized the opportunity to lock in gains, leading to reduced inflows into these ETFs.

隨著近幾週比特幣價格飆升，許多投資者抓住機會鎖定收益，導致流入這些 ETF 的資金減少。

Additionally, the overall landscape for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, has been complicated by the Federal Reserve's signals regarding interest rate cuts. Investors are now grappling with the possibility that the central bank may adopt a more

此外，聯準會有關降息的訊號使包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產的整體格局變得複雜。投資者現在正在努力應對央行可能採取更多措施的可能性。