聯準會政策與比特幣減半引發加密資產拋售

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，即將到來的比特幣減半和聯準會的政策可能會導致 4 月下半月出現大量加密貨幣拋售。海耶斯預測，加密資產將經歷波動時期，減半和聯準會的策略可能導致市場低迷數週。

Federal Reserve Policies and Bitcoin Halving Expected to Trigger Crypto Asset Firesale

聯準會政策和比特幣減半預計將引發加密資產拋售

New York, New York - April 11, 2023 - According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, a significant sell-off in crypto assets is imminent due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event and the Federal Reserve's strategies.

紐約州紐約 - 2023 年 4 月 11 日 - 加密貨幣交易所 BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，由於即將到來的比特幣減半事件和聯準會的策略，加密資產即將出現大幅拋售。

Hayes predicts a period of volatility for cryptocurrencies in the latter half of April. He anticipates that the Bitcoin halving, scheduled to occur on May 1st, 2024, coupled with the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) and Treasury's General Account (TGA) remaining unused, will fuel a massive crypto asset firesale, potentially depressing the market for several weeks.

Hayes 預測 4 月下半月加密貨幣將出現波動期。他預計，定於2024 年5 月1 日發生的比特幣減半，加上聯準會的量化緊縮(QT) 和財政部的普通帳戶(TGA) 仍未使用，將引發大規模的加密資產拋售，可能會壓低市場幾週。

The Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, where the block reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half. Hayes suggests that while the halving could boost prices in the medium term, it could also negatively impact crypto prices immediately before and after the event.

比特幣減半大約每四年發生一次，開採比特幣的區塊獎勵減少一半。海耶斯表示，雖然減半可能會在中期推高價格，但也可能在減半事件前後對加密貨幣價格產生負面影響。

"I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving," Hayes wrote in a blog post on April 8th. "It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets."

海耶斯在 4 月 8 日的部落格文章中寫道：“我相信比特幣和加密貨幣價格總體將在減半前後暴跌。” “這將為加密資產的瘋狂拋售注入動力。”

Hayes also noted that the second half of April could be a "precarious period for risky assets" due to factors like U.S. tax payments removing liquidity, the Fed initiating QT, and the Treasury's TGA remaining unused.

海耶斯也指出，由於美國納稅消除流動性、聯準會啟動QT以及財政部的TGA仍未使用等因素，4月下半月可能是「風險資產的不穩定時期」。

After the Fed's meeting on May 1st, Hayes expects a slowdown in money supply tightening and anticipates the Treasury will infuse "most likely, an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will pump markets."

5 月 1 日聯準會會議結束後，海耶斯預計貨幣供應緊縮將會放緩，並預計財政部「很可能會向系統注入額外 1 兆美元的流動性，這將提振市場」。

Hayes' predictions come at a time when Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a year-to-date increase of over 61.55%, trading at $71,359 as of April 11th, 2023. Hayes, who previously suggested caution before dismissing all meme coins as "stupid," has also forecasted Bitcoin's potential rise to a $1 million valuation.

海耶斯做出這項預測之際，比特幣(BTC) 今年迄今的漲幅超過61.55%，截至2023 年4 月11 日交易價格為71,359 美元。海耶斯此前建議謹慎行事，認為所有迷因幣都是「愚蠢的」 ，」還預測比特幣估值可能升至 100 萬美元。

Despite the predicted volatility, market analysts are forecasting a potential rally that could see Bitcoin's value soar to new heights. However, the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving and the Federal Reserve's policies on the crypto market remains to be seen.

儘管預計會出現波動，但市場分析師預測，比特幣的價值可能會飆升至新的高度。然而，即將到來的比特幣減半以及聯準會政策對加密市場的影響仍有待觀察。

"The Bitcoin halving and the Federal Reserve's strategies will have a significant impact on crypto asset prices," said Hayes. "Investors should be prepared for a period of volatility and should adjust their trading strategies accordingly."

海耶斯表示：“比特幣減半和美聯儲的策略將對加密資產價格產生重大影響。” “投資者應該為一段時期的波動做好準備，並相應調整交易策略。”

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can be influenced by a wide range of factors. Investors should always conduct their own research and consider seeking professional financial advice before making any investment decisions.

加密貨幣市場波動性很大，可能受到多種因素的影響。在做出任何投資決定之前，投資者應始終進行自己的研究並考慮尋求專業的財務建議。