專家經濟學家探索未知領域：克勞蒂亞·薩姆的經濟預測

與宏觀經濟學家兼作家克勞迪婭·薩姆一起分享她對美國經濟現狀的專家見解。在本期《快報》中，薩姆討論了市場面臨的潛在風險和機遇，強調了股市的分歧，並對經濟格局進行了詳細分析。不要錯過 Sahm 為投資者和金融愛好者提供的寶貴觀點和可行建議。

Claudia Sahm's Economic Forecast: Navigating Uncharted Territory

克勞蒂亞·薩姆的經濟預測：探索未知領域

Claudia Sahm, the macroeconomist renowned for the eponymous "Sahm Rule" for recessionary indicators, has shared her insights on the trajectory of the U.S. economy in an insightful interview with The Express.

宏觀經濟學家克勞迪婭·薩姆 (Claudia Sahm) 以衰退指標的同名「薩姆規則」而聞名，她在接受《快報》採訪時分享了她對美國經濟軌蹟的見解。

The Sahm Rule: A Prognostic Guide

Sahm 規則：預測指南

The Sahm Rule, conceived by Sahm during her tenure at the Federal Reserve, monitors the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate for individuals aged 25 to 54. A surge in this rate above a specific threshold, currently set at 0.5%, signifies the onset of a recession.

薩姆規則是薩姆在聯準會任職期間構想的，它監控25 歲至54 歲個人失業率的三個月移動平均值。該失業率飆升至特定門檻（目前設定為0.5%）之上，意味著失業率上升。經濟衰退的開始。

The U.S. Economy: A Precarious Balancing Act

美國經濟：不穩定的平衡行為

Sahm's assessment of the current economic landscape suggests a precarious balance between potential growth and looming risks. She acknowledges the robust recovery witnessed in recent quarters, fueled by substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. However, she cautions against complacency, highlighting potential vulnerabilities that could derail this growth trajectory.

薩姆對當前經濟狀況的評估表明，潛在成長和迫在眉睫的風險之間存在不穩定的平衡。她承認近幾季在大規模財政和貨幣刺激措施的推動下出現了強勁復甦。然而，她警告不要自滿，並強調了可能破壞這一成長軌蹟的潛在漏洞。

One such vulnerability lies in the ongoing pandemic, which continues to pose uncertainties and could disrupt economic activity. Global supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices, and geopolitical tensions further compound the potential for economic setbacks.

其中一個脆弱性在於持續的大流行，它繼續帶來不確定性，並可能擾亂經濟活動。全球供應鏈中斷、能源價格上漲和地緣政治緊張局勢進一步加劇了經濟衰退的可能性。

Diverging Markets: A Tale of Contrast

分化的市場：對比的故事

Despite the broader economic uncertainties, the stock market has rallied to unprecedented heights, with major indices reaching record highs. This bullish run has been driven by optimism regarding corporate earnings growth and expectations of a prolonged period of low interest rates.

儘管經濟存在更廣泛的不確定性，股市仍反彈至前所未有的高度，主要股指創下歷史新高。這種看漲行情是由對企業獲利成長的樂觀情緒以及對長期低利率的預期所推動的。

However, Sahm emphasizes the importance of acknowledging the divergence between different sectors of the stock market. While technology and other growth-oriented stocks have soared, traditional industries have lagged, reflecting the uneven nature of the economic recovery.

然而，薩姆強調承認股市不同板塊之間存在差異的重要性。儘管科技股和其他成長股飆升，但傳統產業表現落後，反映出經濟復甦的不平衡。

Navigating the Uncertainties

應對不確定性

In navigating these uncertainties, Sahm advises investors and policymakers to remain vigilant and responsive. She underlines the need for prudent fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth while mitigating potential risks.

在應對這些不確定性時，薩姆建議投資者和政策制定者保持警惕並做出反應。她強調需要採取審慎的財政和貨幣政策來支持經濟成長，同時降低潛在風險。

For investors, diversification and a long-term perspective are crucial. Sahm also suggests considering alternative asset classes, such as real estate or commodities, to hedge against potential market volatility.

對於投資者來說，多元化和長遠眼光至關重要。薩姆還建議考慮替代資產類別，例如房地產或大宗商品，以對沖潛在的市場波動。

Conclusion

結論

Claudia Sahm's economic forecast provides valuable insights into the complexities and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy. Her message is clear: while the recovery remains fragile and subject to numerous external factors, cautious optimism and prudent planning are essential for navigating the challenges ahead.

克勞迪婭·薩姆的經濟預測為了解美國經濟面臨的複雜性和不確定性提供了寶貴的見解。她的訊息很明確：儘管復甦仍然脆弱並受到眾多外部因素的影響，但謹慎樂觀和審慎規劃對於應對未來的挑戰至關重要。