儘管拋售壓力令人擔憂，但比特幣減半後以太坊仍在飆升

比特幣減半後，在強勁基本面的支撐下，比特幣和以太幣價格都上漲。雖然比特幣達到了 84 萬個區塊的里程碑，但以太坊投資者儘管虧損地址有所增加，但仍表現出看漲情緒，這可能預示著山寨幣市場的拋售壓力。

Ethereum Price Soars Post-Bitcoin Halving, Despite Concerns of Selling Pressure

儘管存在拋售壓力，但比特幣減半後以太幣價格仍飆升

Following the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, the blockchain industry has witnessed several noteworthy milestones. Bitcoin's block count has reached 840,000, while the halving itself has reduced the mining reward to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. Surprisingly, despite predictions of a potential price drop due to selling pressure from miners, Bitcoin's price has surged, approaching $66K. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also experienced a rally, supported by a range of positive on-chain metrics. However, concerns have been raised about the increasing number of loss-making Ethereum addresses, which could pose a potential risk of selling pressure on the altcoin.

在備受期待的比特幣減半事件之後，區塊鏈產業見證了幾個值得注意的里程碑。比特幣的區塊數量已達到 84 萬個，而減半本身已將挖礦獎勵減少至每個區塊 3.125 比特幣。令人驚訝的是，儘管預測由於礦工的拋售壓力可能導致價格下跌，但比特幣的價格飆升，接近 66,000 美元。在一系列積極的鏈上指標的支持下，第二大加密貨幣以太坊也經歷了反彈。然而，人們對虧損的以太坊地址數量不斷增加表示擔憂，這可能會對山寨幣造成潛在的拋售壓力。

Ethereum Investors Maintain Bullish Outlook

以太坊投資者維持看漲前景

Data from Coinglass reveals that, despite recent price volatility, the majority of Ethereum investors remain bullish. This optimistic outlook is exemplified by the actions of a trader who, despite suffering a $4.5 million loss from a previous long position on ETH, has opened yet another long bet on the token. Over the past 24 hours, ETH price has witnessed a total liquidation of over $14.8 million, primarily driven by buyers.

Coinglass 的數據顯示，儘管最近價格波動，但大多數以太坊投資者仍然看漲。一位交易員的行為就反映了這種樂觀的前景，儘管該交易員之前持有 ETH 多頭頭寸，損失了 450 萬美元，但他仍對該代幣進行了另一筆多頭押注。在過去 24 小時內，ETH 價格的清算總額超過 1,480 萬美元，主要是由買家推動的。

Loss-Making Addresses Raise Concerns

虧損地址引發擔憂

However, data from IntoTheBlock suggests that ETH's price may face a short-term setback due to the surge in loss-making addresses. The proportion of out-the-money addresses has jumped from 8% to over 18% in a week, indicating rising impatience among holders. If ETH price fails to register further gains or triggers a correction, these holders may intensify selling pressure by closing their positions.

然而，IntoTheBlock 的數據表明，由於虧損地址激增，ETH 價格可能面臨短期回檔。一週內，價外地址比例從 8% 躍升至 18% 以上，顯示持有者的不耐煩情緒加劇。如果 ETH 價格未能進一步上漲或引發回調，這些持有者可能會透過平倉來加劇拋售壓力。

Netflow Metrics Indicate Buying Demand

淨流量指標顯示購買需求

The Netflow metric, which measures the difference between inflow and outflow volumes on exchanges, currently stands at -16K ETH, indicating that outflow volume is surpassing inflow. This suggests that buying demand is outweighing selling pressure, potentially reducing the likelihood of an immediate sell-off.

Netflow 指標衡量交易所流入量和流出量之間的差異，目前為 -16K ETH，顯示流出量超過流入量。這表明購買需求超過了拋售壓力，可能會降低立即拋售的可能性。

MVRV Ratio Suggests Potential for Price Stability

MVRV 比率顯示價格穩定的潛力

Insights from IntoTheBlock reveal that Ethereum's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen, suggesting that many Ethereum holders are yet to see profits. This scenario could be beneficial for ETH's price, as these holders may retain their holdings in anticipation of further increases, potentially stabilizing the price against downturns.

IntoTheBlock 的見解顯示，以太坊的市場價值與已實現價值 (MVRV) 比率已經下降，這表明許多以太坊持有者尚未看到利潤。這種情況可能有利於 ETH 的價格，因為這些持有者可能會保留其持有的資產，以預期價格進一步上漲，從而可能穩定價格以應對低迷。

Ethereum Growth Metrics Paint Mixed Picture

以太坊成長指標描繪出一幅混合圖景

While these factors create a generally bullish sentiment for Ethereum, indicators of the network's growth present a mixed picture. Data from Santiment indicates a slowdown in the rate of new user adoption within the Ethereum ecosystem, which could potentially lead to further price drops.

雖然這些因素為以太坊帶來了普遍看漲的情緒，但該網路的成長指標卻呈現出喜憂參半的景象。 Santiment 的數據表明，以太坊生態系統內新用戶採用率放緩，這可能會導致價格進一步下跌。

Technical Analysis Suggests Price Consolidation

技術分析顯示價格整合

Ether has approached the 20-day EMA, currently at $3,158, signaling an attempt by bulls to regain momentum. However, sellers are creating strong resistance around the $3,200 mark, limiting the current buying demand. As of writing, ETH price trades at $3,165, declining over 1.5% in the last 24 hours.

以太幣已接近 20 日均線，目前價格為 3,158 美元，表明多頭試圖重獲動力。然而，賣家在 3,200 美元關卡附近形成強勁阻力，限制了當前的購買需求。截至撰寫本文時，ETH 價格交易價格為 3,165 美元，在過去 24 小時內下跌超過 1.5%。

The 20-day EMA is flattening, and the RSI is hovering just above the midpoint, indicating an equilibrium in market forces. Should the price retreat from the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair may pull back to $3,056. This level is crucial for the bulls to hold, as a breach could lead to a drop towards $2,800.

20 日均線趨於平緩，RSI 徘徊在中點上方，顯示市場力量處於平衡狀態。如果價格從 20 日均線回落，ETH/USDT 貨幣對可能會回落至 3,056 美元。對於多頭守住這一水平至關重要，因為突破可能導致跌向 2,800 美元。

Conversely, if Ether breaks above the 200-day EMA, it could boost the buying momentum. The pair could then target the 50-day SMA at $3,586 and potentially extend gains to $3,700. Surpassing this threshold would signal the potential end of the corrective phase, paving the way for a retest of $4K.

相反，如果以太幣突破 200 日均線，可能會提振購買勢頭。然後，該貨幣對可能將 50 日移動平均線目標定為 3,586 美元，並可能將漲幅擴大至 3,700 美元。超過這個門檻將標誌著修正階段可能結束，為重新測試 4000 美元鋪平道路。

Conclusion

結論

Despite concerns over the increasing number of loss-making Ethereum addresses, indicators such as the MVRV ratio and Netflow metrics suggest that the overall sentiment for Ethereum remains positive. The technical analysis suggests a period of consolidation, with support at $3,056 and resistance at $3,200. Should Ether break above the 200-day EMA, it could trigger a rally towards $3,700 and potentially higher. The broader cryptocurrency market remains volatile, and investors are advised to exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

儘管人們對虧損的以太坊地址數量不斷增加感到擔憂，但 MVRV 比率和 Netflow 指標等指標表明，以太坊的整體情緒仍然樂觀。技術分析顯示將進入盤整期，支撐位為 3,056 美元，阻力位為 3,200 美元。如果以太幣突破 200 日均線，可能會引發反彈至 3,700 美元甚至更高。更廣泛的加密貨幣市場仍然波動，建議投資者在做出任何投資決定之前保持謹慎並進行徹底的研究。