狗狗幣的歷史迴響：2025 年減半後可能出現飆漲？

歷史數據表明，狗狗幣（DOGE）可能會在比特幣減半後七個月左右反彈至歷史新高。儘管最近價格下跌，但狗狗幣的價格走勢與先前的周期一致，可能預示著 11 月的反彈。如果這種模式重複，DOGE 可能會在 2025 年 4 月創下新高。

Dogecoin's Allure: Historical Patterns Suggest Potential Surge Towards Record Highs

狗狗幣的魅力：歷史模式顯示其可能飆升至歷史新高

As global financial markets grapple with uncertainty, the cryptocurrency realm has witnessed a prolonged correction that has cast a pall over many digital assets. Dogecoin (DOGE), the self-proclaimed "memecoin" that has captured the fascination of retail investors and crypto enthusiasts alike, has not been immune to this downturn, shedding value over the past month. However, a closer examination of historical data suggests that DOGE may be poised for a resurgence that could propel it to new all-time highs.

隨著全球金融市場應對不確定性，加密貨幣領域經歷了長期調整，為許多數位資產蒙上了陰影。狗狗幣（DOGE）是一種自稱為「memecoin」的貨幣，吸引了散戶投資者和加密貨幣愛好者的青睞，但它也未能倖免於這次經濟低迷，在過去一個月中貶值。然而，對歷史數據的仔細研究表明，狗狗幣可能會復甦，並可能將其推至歷史新高。

Echoes of the Past: Seven Months Post-Halving Liftoff

過去的迴響：減半後七個月

During the previous crypto bull market, Dogecoin embarked on a remarkable ascent in May 2020, coinciding with a period approximately seven months following the 2020 Bitcoin halving. This event, which occurs every four years, reduces the issuance rate of Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, and has historically been a catalyst for broader market rallies.

在上一次加密牛市期間，狗狗幣於 2020 年 5 月開始顯著上漲，恰逢 2020 年比特幣減半後約七個月的時期。這一事件每四年發生一次，降低了領先的加密貨幣比特幣的發行率，並且歷史上一直是更廣泛市場反彈的催化劑。

Mirror Image: DOGE's Trajectory Post-2020 Halving

鏡像：2020 年減半後 DOGE 的軌跡

Strikingly, Dogecoin's price continued to rise until it reached its zenith of $0.73 on May 8, 2021, exactly one year after the 2020 Bitcoin halving. This remarkable surge mirrored the historical pattern, suggesting that DOGE's price action might once again align with this established trend.

引人注目的是，狗狗幣的價格持續上漲，直到 2021 年 5 月 8 日達到 0.73 美元的最高點，恰好是 2020 年比特幣減半一年後。這一顯著的飆升反映了歷史模式，表明狗狗幣的價格走勢可能再次與這一既定趨勢保持一致。

Projecting a Future Trajectory: April 2025 as a Potential Turning Point

預測未來軌跡：2025 年 4 月是一個潛在的轉捩點

If the cyclical pattern holds true, Dogecoin's price could be poised to break new ground in April 2025. This projection, however, must be tempered with caution, as technical analysis can be less reliable when applied to memecoins, whose value is often driven by speculative sentiment rather than fundamental factors.

如果週期性模式成立，狗狗幣的價格可能會在2025 年4 月突破新的突破。的價值往往是由投機性驅動的情緒而非基本面因素。

The Mercurial Nature of Memecoins: Driven by Speculation, Not Fundamentals

Memecoin 的多變本質：由投機驅動，而非基本面

Robby Greenfield, founder of Umoja Labs, acknowledges the unique characteristics of memecoins, describing them as a "manic market" fueled by greed and often characterized by a lack of understanding of the associated risks. Despite this, Greenfield anticipates that certain memecoins, including DOGE and PEPE (PEPEUSD), will retain their elevated valuations.

Umoja Labs 的創始人 Robby Greenfield 承認模因幣的獨特特徵，將其描述為一個由貪婪推動的“瘋狂市場”，並且往往以缺乏對相關風險的了解為特徵。儘管如此，格林菲爾德預計某些模因幣，包括 DOGE 和 PEPE (PEPEUSD)，將保持其較高的估值。

Exchanges Embrace Memecoins: Legitimizing a Once-Fringe Asset Class

交易所擁抱 Memecoin：使曾經邊緣的資產類別合法化

The growing acceptance of memecoins by major cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Coinbase's introduction of memecoin futures markets, has further legitimized these assets. Greenfield suggests that the cult-like communities that have formed around these digital currencies will continue to support their presence among the higher-capitalized cryptocurrencies.

主要加密貨幣交易所對 memecoin 的接受度不斷提高，例如 Coinbase 推出 memecoin 期貨市場，進一步使這些資產合法化。格林菲爾德表示，圍繞這些數位貨幣形成的類似邪教的社區將繼續支持它們在資本較高的加密貨幣中的存在。

Memecoins as a Level Playing Field?

Memecoin 是一個公平的競爭環境嗎？

The meteoric rise of memecoins has also sparked debates about market fairness. In 2024, the launch of numerous cryptocurrencies with high fully diluted valuations (FDVs) and significant venture capitalist (VC) allocations has led some analysts to question the long-term impact of "money-hungry VCs" on the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

模因幣的迅速崛起也引發了有關市場公平性的爭論。 2024年，大量具有高完全稀釋估值（FDV）和大量風險投資家（VC）配置的加密貨幣的推出，導致一些分析師質疑「缺錢的風險投資」對加密貨幣生態系統的長期影響。

Gianluca Sacco, chief operating officer at VALR, posits that memecoins, with their lack of VC backing, may be perceived by retail investors as offering a more equitable market opportunity. Sacco highlights the vibrant communities that have emerged around these assets, providing a sense of camaraderie for participants.

VALR 營運長 Gianluca Sacco 認為，由於缺乏對風險投資的支持，memecoin 可能會被散戶投資者視為提供了更公平的市場機會。薩科強調了圍繞這些資產出現的充滿活力的社區，為參與者提供了一種友誼。

Cautionary Notes: Memecoin Market Metrics Warrant Scrutiny

注意事項：Memecoin 市場指標值得仔細審查

While certain memecoins, such as Pepe (PEPEUSD), Shiba Inu (SHIBUSD), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Floki (FLOKI), have experienced double-digit gains in recent days, Diane Dai, CMO of Dodo, cautions against interpreting these as signals of a resurgence in the wider memecoin market.

雖然某些 memecoin，例如 Pepe (PEPEUSD)、Shiba Inu (SHIBUSD)、Dogwifhat (WIF) 和 Floki (FLOKI) 最近幾天經歷了兩位數的漲幅，但 Dodo 首席營銷官 Diane Dai 警告不要將這些解釋為更廣泛的模因幣市場復甦的訊號。

Dai emphasizes that trading volume for these assets remains low, indicating insufficient market liquidity. The pronounced price fluctuations associated with memecoins, she argues, fall short of providing conclusive evidence of a significant influx of investors into the memecoin market post-halving.

戴強調，這些資產的交易量仍然很低，顯示市場流動性不足。她認為，與迷因幣相關的明顯價格波動不足以提供確鑿證據，證明減半後投資者大量湧入迷因幣市場。

A Dip in Market Sentiment: Daily Trading Volume and Market Cap Decline

市場情緒低迷：每日交易量與市值下降

Data from CoinMarketCap corroborates Dai's assessment, revealing a notable decline in the daily trading volume of memecoins over the past 24 hours, dropping by more than 17% to $6.58 billion. The market capitalization of memecoins has also decreased by 5.8% to $52.8 billion.

CoinMarketCap 的數據證實了 Dai 的評估，顯示過去 24 小時內 memecoin 的每日交易量顯著下降，下降了 17% 以上，至 65.8 億美元。 Memecoin 的市值也下降了 5.8%，至 528 億美元。

Conclusion: Dogecoin's Future Path Fraught with Uncertainties

結論：狗狗幣的未來之路充滿不確定性

While historical patterns suggest the possibility of Dogecoin's resurgence, investors should approach such projections with a sense of caution. The highly speculative nature of memecoins, coupled with the recent decline in market sentiment, underscores the importance of prudent investment strategies. As always, thorough research and a clear understanding of the risks involved are paramount before venturing into the realm of memecoin investing.

雖然歷史模式顯示狗狗幣有可能復甦，但投資者應謹慎對待此類預測。模因幣的高度投機性質，加上近期市場情緒的下降，凸顯了審慎投資策略的重要性。一如既往，在涉足模因幣投資領域之前，徹底的研究和對所涉及風險的清晰了解至關重要。