滯脹擔憂導致加密貨幣市場低迷

在相互矛盾的市場訊號中，比特幣和以太坊價格在亞洲商業週開始下跌。加密貨幣市場在應對滯脹威脅的同時尋求財政部普通帳戶和即將在香港推出的現貨比特幣 ETF 的支持。包括 BTC 和 ETH 在內的主要加密貨幣表現出看跌趨勢，分析師對滯脹壓力和聯準會潛在的政策反應表示擔憂。隨著交易員評估地緣政治因素和宏觀經濟狀況，市場方向仍不確定。

Amidst a complex interplay of economic and market forces, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a downturn in prices during the initial stages of the Asian business week. The decline in valuations for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the two leading cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, has been observed amidst a mix of bullish and bearish signals.

在經濟和市場力量複雜的相互作用下，加密貨幣市場在亞洲商業週初期經歷了價格低迷。在看漲和看跌訊號的混合中，觀察到比特幣（BTC）和以太幣（ETH）這兩種市值領先的加密貨幣的估值下降。

Uncertainty surrounding the threat of stagflation, a situation characterized by high inflation and sluggish economic growth, has cast a shadow over the crypto market. The release of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for the first quarter of 2023 revealed an annualized growth rate of 1.6%, significantly lower than the preceding quarter's 3.4% expansion. Concurrently, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation measure closely monitored by the Federal Reserve (Fed), rose to an annualized rate of 3.4% in the first three months of the year, from 1.8% in the final quarter of 2023.

以高通膨和經濟成長緩慢為特徵的滯脹威脅的不確定性給加密貨幣市場蒙上了陰影。美國公佈的2023年第一季國內生產毛額（GDP）報告顯示，年化成長率為1.6%，顯著低於上一季3.4%的成長速度。與此同時，聯準會密切監控的一項關鍵通膨指標——個人消費支出（PCE）指數，年率從去年最後一季的 1.8% 升至今年前三個月的 3.4%。

The combination of slower growth and persistent inflation has heightened concerns about stagflation, a scenario that typically reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by central banks. The prediction market platform Polymarket currently indicates a 35% probability of a rate cut, although this probability has been gradually increasing in recent weeks.

成長放緩和持續通膨加劇了人們對滯脹的擔憂，這種情況通常會降低央行降息的可能性。預測市場平台Polymarket目前顯示降息的可能性為35%，儘管這種可能性最近幾週一直在逐漸增加。

In an effort to counter the potential economic headwinds, the U.S. government has implemented strategies to increase liquidity in the financial system. The Treasury General Account (TGA) holds approximately $1 trillion in assets, and the Reverse Repurchase Program (RRP) has added $400 billion in liquidity. This influx of funds may provide support to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

為了因應潛在的經濟阻力，美國政府實施了增加金融體系流動性的策略。財政部普通帳戶（TGA）持有約1兆美元資產，反向回購計畫（RRP）增加了4,000億美元的流動性。這種資金的湧入可能會為包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產提供支持。

Another factor influencing the crypto market is the launch of a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in Hong Kong, scheduled for April 30th. While the ETF has garnered attention from investors and traders, news that mainland Chinese investors will not be permitted to trade the product has dampened some of the initial optimism surrounding its launch.

影響加密貨幣市場的另一個因素是定於 4 月 30 日在香港推出現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF)。儘管該ETF吸引了投資者和交易員的關注，但有關中國大陸投資者將不被允許交易該產品的消息削弱了圍繞其推出的最初樂觀情緒。

Amidst these market dynamics, BTC is currently trading at approximately $62,549, a decline of 1.64% from its previous trading session. ETH has also experienced a price decrease, currently valued at $3,186.12, representing a 3.56% reduction from the previous trading day. The broader crypto market, as measured by the Coindesk 20 (CD20) index, has also witnessed a decline of 3% over the last 24 hours, standing at 2,176.55.

在這些市場動態中，BTC 目前的交易價格約為 62,549 美元，較前一交易日下跌 1.64%。 ETH價格也出現下跌，目前價格為3,186.12美元，較前一交易日下跌3.56%。以 Coindesk 20 (CD20) 指數衡量的更廣泛的加密貨幣市場在過去 24 小時內也下跌了 3%，至 2,176.55。

While the immediate market direction remains uncertain, analysts at QCP Capital have highlighted the potential risks posed by stagflation, cautioning that it could have a significant impact on risky asset classes, including digital assets. The U.S. economic outlook and the Fed's monetary policy decisions will continue to shape the trajectory of the crypto market in the coming weeks and months.

儘管目前的市場方向仍不確定，但 QCP Capital 的分析師強調了滯脹帶來的潛在風險，警告這可能對包括數位資產在內的風險資產類別產生重大影響。美國經濟前景和聯準會的貨幣政策決定將繼續影響未來幾週和幾個月加密貨幣市場的軌跡。