Celestia 即將解鎖的代幣：平衡的前景

Celestia 即將解鎖超過 10 億美元的 TIA 代幣，這已成為投資者關注的焦點。最近的分析表明，市場受到的影響可能比最初擔心的要溫和，這可能為人們重新燃起對 TIA 的興趣奠定了基礎。

Celestia's impending token unlock has become a focal point for investors, with projections indicating that only half of the projected $1 billion in TIA tokens will be available for sale. This has sparked discussions about the potential positive effects on TIA's price dynamics.

Celestia 即將解鎖的代幣已成為投資者關注的焦點，預計價值 10 億美元的 TIA 代幣中只有一半可供出售。這引發了關於對 TIA 價格動態的潛在正面影響的討論。

Recent analyses indicate that the market may experience a milder impact than initially feared, potentially setting the stage for renewed interest in TIA. Here, we break down the key insights surrounding this significant event and its implications for the market.

最近的分析表明，市場受到的影響可能比最初擔心的要溫和，這可能為人們重新燃起對 TIA 的興趣奠定了基礎。在這裡，我們詳細分析了圍繞這一重大事件的關鍵見解及其對市場的影響。

As Celestia is set to unlock a substantial amount of its TIA tokens, projections suggest that only half of this sum—approximately 188.5 million tokens—will be made available for sale. Taran Sabharwal, the founder of the crypto OTC firm Stix, anticipates that this will result in a selling pressure of around $460 million.

由於 Celestia 將解鎖大量 TIA 代幣，預計只有其中一半（約 1.885 億個代幣）可供出售。加密場外交易公司 Stix 的創始人 Taran Sabharwal 預計，這將導致約 4.6 億美元的拋售壓力。

This figure represents less than 50% of the total amount available for unlock, alleviating concerns about an overwhelming sell-off. Sabharwal explained, “We've summarized that a total of 92.3 million $TIA will be liquid post-unlock, which acts as the upper bound of overall spot selling pressure.”

這一數字僅佔可解鎖總量的不到 50%，緩解了人們對大量拋售的擔憂。 Sabharwal 解釋說：“我們總結出，解鎖後總共 9230 萬美元的 TIA 將具有流動性，這是整體現貨拋售壓力的上限。”

The outlook for TIA following the token unlock appears more optimistic than many had expected. As shorts—investors betting against the price—begin to unwind, this could provide a bullish signal for spot buyers.

代幣解鎖後 TIA 的前景似乎比許多人預期的更樂觀。隨著空頭（押注價格的投資者）開始平倉，這可能為現貨買家提供看漲訊號。

“We expect a lot of these shorts to continue winding down, partially negating the spot-selling pressure. This funding reset may be a bull signal for spot buyers,” Sabharwal stated.

「我們預計許多空頭將繼續減少，部分抵銷現貨拋售壓力。這種資金重置對於現貨買家來說可能是一個牛市訊號，」Sabharwal 表示。

Traders and analysts echo this sentiment, suggesting that any minor dips in TIA's price could present excellent re-entry points for those bullish on the asset.

交易員和分析師也認同這種觀點，認為 TIA 價格的任何小幅下跌都可能為看漲該資產的人提供絕佳的重新入場點。

One user remarked, “With unlocks getting absorbed by the market and shorts starting to cover, it could be one of the best entries on $TIA for those bullish on the ETH modularity narrative.”

一位用戶評論道：“隨著解鎖量被市場吸收，空頭開始回補，對於那些看好 ETH 模組化敘述的人來說，這可能是 $TIA 的最佳入場點之一。”

In the current market, sentiment appears to be leaning towards optimism. Simon Dedic, a partner at crypto venture capital firm Moonrock Capital, acknowledged that while short-term volatility might be expected, the overall setup looks bullish.

在當前市場上，情緒似乎傾向於樂觀。加密貨幣創投公司 Moonrock Capital 的合夥人 Simon Dedic 承認，雖然可能會出現短期波動，但整體格局看起來看漲。

“While we might see volatility in the short term, this could ultimately be a huge bullish setup. With Celestia positioning itself as the go-to data availability layer, $TIA might just be setting up for its own $SOL-like move,” Dedic commented.

「雖然短期內我們可能會看到波動，但這最終可能是一個巨大的看漲格局。隨著 Celestia 將自己定位為首選資料可用性層，$TIA 可能只是在為自己的類似 $SOL 的舉措做好準備，」Dedic 評論道。

However, caution remains essential. Ignas, a DeFi analyst, warned that the possibility of an extended price decline cannot be ignored.

然而，謹慎仍然至關重要。 DeFi 分析師伊格納斯警告稱，價格持續下跌的可能性不容忽視。

He noted that ongoing concerns—referred to as FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt)—related to Celestia's relatively low revenue of $15,000 since its debut in October 2023, could complicate the market's reaction.

他指出，自 2023 年 10 月首次亮相以來，Celestia 的收入相對較低，僅為 15,000 美元，持續的擔憂（稱為 FUD（恐懼、不確定性和懷疑））可能會使市場的反應變得複雜。

As of now, market positioning on major exchanges like Binance is increasingly bullish, with long positions rising from 55% to over 60% in the past few days. This shift indicates that traders are anticipating a rebound for TIA.

截至目前，幣安等主要交易所的市場部位日益看漲，多頭持股比例連日從55%上升至60%以上。這一轉變表明交易者預計 TIA 將會反彈。

For traders, a critical level to monitor is $4.50, which has previously halted pullbacks since early September. If TIA breaches this level, it could slide down towards range lows near $3.50, introducing new challenges for investors.

對於交易者來說，需要監控的關鍵水平是 4.50 美元，自 9 月初以來已停止回調。如果 TIA 突破這一水平，它可能會滑向 3.50 美元附近的區間低點，給投資者帶來新的挑戰。

While the upcoming unlock of TIA tokens poses potential risks, the reduced sell-off expectations may pave the way for a more favorable market response.

儘管即將解鎖的 TIA 代幣會帶來潛在風險，但拋售預期的降低可能為更有利的市場反應鋪平道路。

As traders and investors navigate this crucial period, the combination of increasing long positions and unwinding shorts presents a cautiously optimistic outlook.

隨著交易員和投資者度過這段關鍵時期，多頭部位增加和空頭平倉的結合呈現出謹慎樂觀的前景。

With the future of Celestia and TIA closely tied to its ability to attract interest and maintain investor confidence, the coming days will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of this cryptocurrency. As always, participants should remain vigilant and informed as market conditions evolve.

由於 Celestia 和 TIA 的未來與其吸引興趣和維持投資者信心的能力密切相關，未來幾天將是決定這種加密貨幣發展軌蹟的關鍵。一如既往，隨著市場狀況的變化，參與者應保持警惕並了解情況。