英國央行模糊的利率立場加劇了市場不確定性中英鎊兌美元的波動

儘管有顯著的下跌趨勢，英鎊兌美元在周五交易中仍保持在 1.2602 水平附近。英國央行(BoE)維持高利率以對抗通膨，預計通膨將在2024年第二季逐步下降。不過，市場預計英國央行將在今年稍後降息，令英鎊承壓。

Bank of England's Ambiguous Stance on Interest Rates Triggers Market Volatility in GBP/USD

英國央行模糊的利率立場引發英鎊兌美元市場波動

The GBP/USD currency pair has experienced significant fluctuations during Friday's trading session, hovering around the 1.2602 level following a pronounced downward trajectory. The fluctuations stem from uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy stance and its potential impact on the British pound.

英鎊/美元貨幣對在周五交易時段經歷了大幅波動，在明顯下行軌跡之後徘徊在 1.2602 水平附近。波動源於英國央行（BoE）貨幣政策立場的不確定性及其對英鎊的潛在影響。

The BoE has maintained a cautious approach, refraining from providing clear guidance on its future interest rate decisions. This ambiguity has left markets in a state of limbo, with investors grappling to decipher the central bank's intentions.

英國央行一直保持謹慎態度，沒有就未來的利率決策提供明確的指導。這種模糊性使市場陷入了困境，投資人努力解讀央行的意圖。

In its recent policy meeting, the BoE opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, signaling an intention to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. This decision has raised questions about the BoE's commitment to combating rising inflation, which currently stands above the target level of 2%.

在最近的政策會議上，英國央行選擇將利率維持在5.25%不變，顯示有意長期維持限制性貨幣政策。這項決定引發了人們對英國央行應對通膨上升的承諾的質疑，目前通膨率高於 2% 的目標水準。

Market analysts believe that the BoE's indecisiveness has contributed to the ongoing volatility in the GBP/USD pair. The lack of clarity on future interest rate moves has left investors hesitant to make significant trades, resulting in sideways price action.

市場分析師認為，英國央行的優柔寡斷導致了英鎊兌美元匯率的持續波動。未來利率走勢缺乏明確性，導致投資人在進行重大交易時猶豫不決，導致價格橫盤走勢。

Adding to the market uncertainty is the contrasting stance adopted by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has recently indicated a willingness to pause its aggressive interest rate hike cycle and potentially initiate rate cuts later this year. This divergence in monetary policy approaches between the BoE and the Fed has created further confusion among market participants.

聯準會（Fed）採取的相反立場增加了市場的不確定性。聯準會最近表示願意暫停其激進的升息週期，並可能在今年稍後啟動降息。英國央行和聯準會在貨幣政策方針上的分歧讓市場參與者進一步感到困惑。

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has acknowledged that the economy is not yet at a stage where interest rates can be lowered, but he has also expressed optimism regarding the trajectory of inflation. However, he has emphasized the need for more evidence of moderate wage growth before considering any easing measures.

英國央行總裁安德魯貝利承認經濟尚未達到可以降低利率的階段，但他也對通膨軌跡表示樂觀。不過，他強調在考慮任何寬鬆措施之前，需要更多證據證明薪資適度成長。

Despite the BoE's cautious stance, markets continue to price in the possibility of interest rate cuts later this year. This expectation has put downward pressure on the British pound, weighing on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

儘管英國央行持謹慎立場，市場仍繼續消化今年稍後降息的可能性。這項預期給英鎊帶來下行壓力，打壓英鎊兌美元匯率。

In contrast to the BoE's ambiguity, the Fed has provided more explicit guidance on its future monetary policy intentions. The central bank has indicated an average expectation of three rate cuts in 2024, bringing it closer to market estimates. This clarity has provided some stability to the US dollar, which has benefited from the prospect of a less hawkish Fed.

與英國央行的模糊性相反，聯準會對其未來貨幣政策意圖提供了更明確的指導。央行給了2024年三次降息的平均預期，更接近市場預期。這種明確性為美元提供了一定的穩定性，美元受益於聯準會立場不那麼強硬的前景。

Adding to the market volatility is the release of the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures business activity in the UK. The PMI improved to 52.5 in March from 52.3 in February, beating market expectations. However, the services PMI declined to 51.7 from 52.3, missing estimates. These mixed signals have left markets indecisive regarding the strength of the UK economy.

衡量英國商業活動的標準普爾全球綜合採購經理人指數（PMI）的發布加劇了市場波動。 3月PMI從2月的52.3升至52.5，超出市場預期。然而，服務業 PMI 從 52.3 下降至 51.7，低於預期。這些混雜的訊號使市場對英國經濟的實力猶豫不決。

Market analysts anticipate a surge in volatility in today's trading session, as investors await the release of UK February retail sales figures. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Michael Barr could provide further clarity on the monetary policy outlook, potentially influencing the movement of the GBP/USD pair.

市場分析師預計今天交易時段的波動性將大幅上升，因為投資者等待英國 2 月零售銷售數據的發布。此外，聯準會主席鮑威爾和麥可巴爾的演講可能會進一步明確貨幣政策前景，這可能會影響英鎊兌美元匯率的走勢。

Given the ongoing uncertainty and potential for market volatility, traders are advised to implement prudent risk management strategies when trading the GBP/USD currency pair.

鑑於持續的不確定性和市場波動的可能性，建議交易者在交易英鎊/美元貨幣對時實施審慎的風險管理策略。