Bitwise CIO 預測比特幣下一次減半將加速成長

Bitwise 資訊長 Matt Hougan 預測，比特幣 (BTC) 在下一個減半週期將發生重大變化，其中包括新投資者和 ETF 帶來的波動性下降 50%。 Hougan 預計投資組合中的比特幣配置將增加，比特幣 ETF 的流入將超過 2,000 億美元。此外，他建議央行可能向比特幣分配資金，這可能導致到2028 年比特幣價格上漲至25 萬美元以上。率的提高。

Bitcoin's Next Halving: Predictions from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan

比特幣的下一個減半：Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan 的預測

In a comprehensive report, Matt Hougan, the Chief Information Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, has outlined five significant predictions for the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for 2028. These predictions shed light on the potential transformations that await the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Bitwise 資訊長 (CIO) Matt Hougan 在一份綜合報告中概述了 2028 年即將到來的比特幣減半事件的五個重要預測。

New Investors and ETFs as Catalysts

新投資者和 ETF 作為催化劑

Hougan anticipates a substantial decline in Bitcoin's volatility, projecting a reduction of approximately 50%. This decrease is attributed to the influx of new investors through the rapidly growing spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market.

Hougan 預計比特幣的波動性將大幅下降，預計將下降約 50%。這一下降歸因於新投資者透過快速成長的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）市場湧入。

As financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the Bitcoin arena, their diverse investment strategies, characterized by portfolio rebalancing and consistent purchases, are expected to introduce counter-cyclical flows that dampen the cryptocurrency's volatility.

隨著財務顧問、家族辦公室和機構進入比特幣領域，他們以投資組合再平衡和持續購買為特徵的多樣化投資策略預計將引入反週期流動，抑制加密貨幣的波動性。

Increased Bitcoin Allocations in Portfolios

增加投資組合中的比特幣配置

Hougan foresees a growing recognition of Bitcoin's value within investment portfolios, predicting that target-date portfolios will commonly include 5% allocations to the cryptocurrency. As Bitcoin's volatility diminishes and its appeal to institutional investors rises, Hougan expects a notable surge in typical portfolio allocations.

Hougan 預計，比特幣在投資組合中的價值將得到越來越多的認可，並預測目標日期投資組合通常包含 5% 的加密貨幣配置。隨著比特幣波動性的減弱以及對機構投資者的吸引力的上升，Hougan 預計典型的投資組合配置將顯著增加。

ETF Inflows Surpassing $200 Billion

ETF流入超過2000億美元

The Bitwise CIO projects that Bitcoin ETFs will witness substantial inflows, exceeding $200 billion in aggregate. He emphasizes their impressive growth trajectory, noting that they have become the fastest-growing new ETF category in history. Hougan draws parallels with the rise of gold ETFs, which experienced consistent growth in net flows over the years, and anticipates a similar pattern for Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitwise CIO 預計，比特幣 ETF 將迎來大量資金流入，總額將超過 2,000 億美元。他強調了它們令人印象深刻的成長軌跡，並指出它們已成為歷史上成長最快的新 ETF 類別。 Hougan 將黃金 ETF 的崛起與多年來淨流量持續增長的黃金 ETF 進行了比較，並預計比特幣 ETF 也會出現類似的模式。

Central Banks' Embrace of Bitcoin

各國央行擁抱比特幣

In an intriguing prediction, Hougan suggests that central banks may allocate funds to Bitcoin prior to the next halving event. He highlights their historical role as significant investors in gold, accumulating substantial quantities of the precious metal. However, Hougan believes that due to Bitcoin's non-debt monetary characteristics and its functional advantages over gold in terms of payments and settlement, central banks will be increasingly drawn to the cryptocurrency.

在一個有趣的預測中，Hougan 表示央行可能會在下一次減半事件之前將資金分配給比特幣。他強調了他們作為黃金重要投資者的歷史作用，並累積了大量的貴金屬。不過，Hougan認為，由於比特幣的非債務貨幣特徵及其在支付和結算方面相對於黃金的功能優勢，各國央行將越來越被這種加密貨幣所吸引。

Hougan further elaborates on this matter: "There is also an element of game theory here. A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer for Bitcoin and, I believe, would contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to front-run the others?"

Hougan 進一步闡述了這個問題：「這裡還有博弈論的因素。一家主要央行採用比特幣作為儲備資產將改變比特幣的遊戲規則，我相信，這將導致價格大幅上漲。哪家央行會試圖領先於其他央行嗎？

Bitcoin's Price Projection: Above $250,000

比特幣的價格預測：超過 25 萬美元

Hougan makes a bold forecast, predicting that Bitcoin will trade at a price exceeding $250,000 by 2028, representing a hefty increase of nearly 280% from current levels. The Bitwise CIO attributes Bitcoin's past exponential growth to its evolution from a speculative asset to one with tangible utility in the real world.

Hougan 做出了大膽的預測，預計到 2028 年，比特幣的交易價格將超過 25 萬美元，較目前水準大幅上漲近 280%。 Bitwise 資訊長將比特幣過去的指數級成長歸因於它從一種投機資產演變為在現實世界中具有實際效用的資產。

Factors such as diminished volatility, enhanced custody options, low correlations with conventional stocks, improved accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all bolster Hougan's optimism regarding Bitcoin's future price appreciation.

波動性降低、託管選擇增強、與傳統股票的相關性較低、ETF 的可及性提高以及機構採用率不斷提高等因素都增強了 Hougan 對比特幣未來價格升值的樂觀態度。

In conclusion, Hougan expresses confidence in Bitcoin's mainstream adoption: "With the ETFs launched and gathering assets—and major Wall Street firms lining up behind bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream. At $250,000, bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we'll see at least that."

總而言之，Hougan 對比特幣的主流採用充滿信心：「隨著ETF 的推出和資產的聚集，以及華爾街主要公司紛紛支持比特幣，我懷疑該資產將繼續進一步進入主流。如果價格達到25 萬美元，比特幣將成為5萬億美元的資產當然會上漲嗎？

While Bitcoin's current price of $64,500 indicates a slight decline of approximately 3% over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency remains poised to make significant strides in the lead-up to the next halving event.

儘管比特幣目前的價格為 64,500 美元，在過去 24 小時內小幅下跌約 3%，但該加密貨幣仍有望在下一次減半事件之前取得重大進展。