Bitwise CIO 對 2028 年比特幣減半的 5 個大膽預測

Bitwise 資訊長 Matt Hougan 預測，比特幣市場將在 2028 年減半前發生重大變化。 Hougan 預計，在新投資者透過現貨比特幣 ETF 進入的推動下，比特幣的波動性將下降 50%。他還預測，5% 的比特幣配置將在目標日期投資組合中變得普遍，從而推動機構採用。 Hougan 預計比特幣 ETF 的資金流入將超過 2000 億美元，並將其成長與黃金 ETF 的崛起進行比較。此外，他建議央行可能在減半之前將資金分配給比特幣，這可能會引發價格上漲。最後，Hougan 預測，到 2028 年，比特幣的價格將超過 25 萬美元，理由是比特幣已從一種投機資產轉變為具有現實世界實用性的資產，並且越來越被主流採用。

Bitwise CIO's Five Bold Predictions for Bitcoin's Next Halving in 2028

Bitwise CIO 對比特幣 2028 年下一次減半的五個大膽預測

In a comprehensive report, Matt Hougan, Chief Information Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, has shared five compelling predictions for the upcoming Halving of the Bitcoin (BTC) network, slated for 2028. His insights shed light on the potential transformations that await the world's leading cryptocurrency.

Bitwise 資訊長(CIO) Matt Hougan 在一份綜合報告中分享了對2028 年即將到來的比特幣(BTC) 網路減半的五個令人信服的預測。 。

1. Damping Volatility: New Investors and ETFs as Catalysts

1. 抑制波動性：新投資者和 ETF 作為催化劑

Hougan anticipates a significant reduction in Bitcoin's volatility, predicting a decline of 50%. He attributes this trend to the influx of new investors through the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market. As financial advisors, family offices, and institutions enter the fold, their distinct investment strategies, including portfolio rebalancing and consistent investments, are expected to introduce counter-cyclical flows, effectively mitigating Bitcoin's susceptibility to price swings.

Hougan 預計比特幣的波動性將大幅降低，預計下跌 50%。他將這一趨勢歸因於新投資者透過現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）市場湧入。隨著財務顧問、家族辦公室和機構的加入，他們獨特的投資策略，包括投資組合再平衡和持續投資，預計將引入反週期流動，有效減輕比特幣對價格波動的敏感度。

2. Growing Portfolio Allocations: Bitcoin's Institutional Embrace

2. 不斷成長的投資組合配置：比特幣的機構擁抱

Hougan envisions a future where Bitcoin allocations in portfolios will become commonplace, reaching 5% in target-date portfolios. As Bitcoin's volatility diminishes and it gains wider acceptance among institutional investors, Hougan anticipates an uptick in typical portfolio allocations.

Hougan 預計，未來投資組合中的比特幣配置將變得司空見慣，在目標日期投資組合中的佔比將達到 5%。隨著比特幣波動性的減弱以及它在機構投資者中獲得更廣泛的接受，Hougan 預計典型的投資組合配置將會增加。

3. ETF Surge: Bitcoin ETFs Poised for Massive Inflows

3. ETF激增：比特幣ETF可望迎來大規模資金流入

The Bitwise CIO forecasts that Bitcoin ETFs will witness an influx of over $200 billion in inflows. He emphasizes their exceptional growth, citing their status as the fastest-growing new ETF category in history. Hougan believes the ETF market is still in its nascent stages, with major institutions and wirehouses initiating their due diligence. Drawing parallels with the historical growth trajectory of gold ETFs, he anticipates a similar surge in Bitcoin ETF popularity.

Bitwise CIO 預測，比特幣 ETF 的資金流入將超過 2,000 億美元。他強調了它們的非凡成長，並稱它們是歷史上成長最快的新 ETF 類別。 Hougan認為，ETF市場仍處於起步階段，主要機構和電線公司都已啟動盡職調查。與黃金 ETF 的歷史成長軌跡相似，他預計比特幣 ETF 的受歡迎程度也會出現類似的飆漲。

4. Central Bank Adoption: Bitcoin's Allure for Monetary Authorities

4. 央行採用：比特幣對貨幣當局的吸引力

In a bold projection, Hougan suggests that central banks may allocate funds to Bitcoin ahead of the next Halving event. He notes that central banks have traditionally been substantial investors in gold, amassing significant reserves. However, with Bitcoin's unique characteristics as a non-debt currency and its practical advantages over gold in payment and settlement functions, Hougan believes it will captivate the attention of central banks. "There is also an element of game theory here," Hougan remarks. "A major central bank adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset would be a game-changer and, I believe, contribute to a dramatic increase in prices. Will one central bank try to outpace the others?"

胡根大膽預測，央行可能會在下一次減半事件之前將資金分配給比特幣。他指出，傳統上央行一直是黃金的重要投資者，並累積了大量儲備。不過，憑藉比特幣作為非債務貨幣的獨特特性，以及在支付結算功能上相對於黃金的實際優勢，Hougan相信它將引起各國央行的注意。 「這裡還有博弈論的元素，」霍根評論道。 “一家主要央行採用比特幣作為儲備資產將改變遊戲規則，我相信，這將導致價格大幅上漲。有一家央行會試圖超越其他央行嗎？”

5. Price Target: Bitcoin's Ascent to $250,000

5. 目標價：比特幣升至 25 萬美元

Hougan boldly forecasts that Bitcoin will trade above $250,000 by 2028, a staggering 280% increase from current levels. He attributes Bitcoin's previous exponential growth to its transition from a speculative asset to one with tangible utility. Factors such as declining volatility, enhanced custody options, low correlation with traditional stocks, improved accessibility through ETFs, and growing institutional adoption all contribute to Hougan's optimism regarding Bitcoin's future trajectory.

Hougan 大膽預測，到 2028 年，比特幣交易價格將超過 25 萬美元，較目前水準成長 280%，令人震驚。他將比特幣之前的指數級增長歸因於其從投機資產轉向有形效用資產的轉變。波動性下降、託管選擇增強、與傳統股票的相關性較低、ETF 的可及性提高以及機構採用率不斷提高等因素都促使 Hougan 對比特幣的未來軌跡持樂觀態度。

"With ETFs launched and accumulating assets—and major Wall Street firms aligning behind Bitcoin—I suspect the asset will continue to move further into the mainstream," Hougan concludes. "At $250,000, Bitcoin would be a $5 trillion asset. Could it go higher? Of course. But $250,000 would represent solid progress between halvings, and I think we'll see at least that."

「隨著 ETF 的推出和資產的積累，以及華爾街主要公司紛紛支持比特幣，我懷疑該資產將繼續進一步成為主流，」Hougan 總結道。 「如果價格達到25 萬美元，比特幣將成為價值5 兆美元的資產。它還能走得更高嗎？當然。但25 萬美元將代表減半之間的堅實進展，我認為我們至少會看到這一點。

Technical Analysis

技術分析

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $64,500, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours after retesting the $67,000 mark on Tuesday and failing to consolidate above that level.

截至本文撰寫時，BTC 交易價格為 64,500 美元，在周二重新測試 67,000 美元大關並未能在該水平上方盤整後，過去 24 小時內下跌了近 3%。

Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

免責聲明：本文僅供參考，不應視為投資建議。投資加密貨幣涉及風險，在做出任何投資決定之前進行徹底的研究至關重要。