四月以看跌結束，比特幣面臨不確定的未來

隨著比特幣接近四月收盤價，其價格不確定地徘徊在十天低點附近。華爾街交易時段的長期拋售使加密貨幣保持在關鍵阻力位以下。宏觀經濟和地緣政治波動加劇了挑戰，引發了人們對比特幣能否扭轉下跌趨勢的擔憂。儘管樂觀人士認為市場可能會恢復第一季的牛市，但看跌情緒依然強勁，賣家興趣集中在當前水準和歷史高點之間。然而，由於預計進一步的下行壓力，支撐區域受到密切關注。距離月度收盤僅剩幾天，4 月有望成為比特幣 2024 年迄今為止最糟糕的一個月，凸顯了不確定的前景和進一步下跌的可能性。

Bitcoin Faces Uncertain Future as April Draw to a Close on Bearish Note

四月接近尾聲，比特幣面臨不確定的未來

As the month of April draws near its end, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself in a precarious position, with its price action sinking to ten-day lows. The largest cryptocurrency remains mired beneath substantial resistance levels following a week of sustained selling pressure during Wall Street trading hours.

隨著 4 月接近尾聲，比特幣 (BTC) 發現自己處於不穩定的境地，其價格走勢跌至十天低點。在華爾街交易時段持續一週的拋售壓力之後，最大的加密貨幣仍陷入巨大阻力位。

Macroeconomic and geopolitical instability have further complicated the situation for Bitcoin bulls this month, leaving them grappling with formidable challenges. The current landscape presents significant hurdles, with considerable seller interest between the spot price and new all-time highs. While price discovery remains within reach, at approximately $12,000 away, such levels appear distant.

宏觀經濟和地緣政治的不穩定使本月比特幣多頭的處境更加複雜，使他們面臨巨大的挑戰。當前的情況存在重大障礙，現貨價格和歷史新高之間的賣家興趣濃厚。雖然價格發現仍然觸手可及，距離大約 12,000 美元，但這樣的水平似乎還很遙遠。

Market observers are cautiously monitoring the situation, scrutinizing key areas of support should downside pressure continue to accumulate. Optimists maintain that BTC/USD is merely traversing a range, expressing confidence that a continuation of the bull market witnessed in Q1 will materialize.

市場觀察家正在謹慎監控事態發展，並密切關注下行壓力繼續累積的關鍵支撐領域。樂觀者認為，比特幣/美元只是在穿越一個區間，他們對第一季牛市的延續將成為現實表示信心。

Deja vu may play a role in Bitcoin's potential resurgence this week. Less than four months after the United States, Hong Kong is poised to launch its own spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

似曾相識的感覺可能會在本週比特幣的潛在復甦中發揮作用。繼美國之後不到四個月，香港也準備推出自己的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）。

Bitcoin At Risk of Worst Month Since November 2022

比特幣面臨 2022 年 11 月以來最糟糕月份的風險

The weekly close offered scant respite to embattled Bitcoin traders as BTC/USD continued its downward trajectory into the Asia session.

隨著比特幣/美元在亞洲時段繼續下跌，每週收盤價並沒有給陷入困境的比特幣交易者喘息的機會。

Hitting lows of $61,943 on Bitstamp, the pair reached its lowest levels since April 19. The preceding week had seen relief bounces towards $65,000 repeatedly encountering selling pressure around the Wall Street open, a phenomenon that commentators attributed to U.S. automated trading algorithms.

該貨幣對在Bitstamp 上觸及61,943 美元的低點，達到4 月19 日以來的最低水平。因於美國自動交易演算法。

While bears have thus far failed to keep the market below $60,000 for an extended period, April is on track to deliver losses exceeding 12%, even at current levels around $62,000.

儘管空頭迄今未能將市場長期保持在 60,000 美元以下，但 4 月份的損失預計將超過 12%，即使目前水準約為 62,000 美元。

Data from CoinGlass confirms that such an outcome would make April Bitcoin's worst-performing month since November 2022, the height of the latest bear market.

CoinGlass 的數據證實，這樣的結果將使 4 月份比特幣成為自 2022 年 11 月以來表現最差的月份，也是最近一次熊市的最高峰。

Yen Volatility Adds to FOMC Week Uncertainty

日圓波動加劇了聯邦公開市場委員會本週的不確定性

Significant macroeconomic events will continue to dominate the news this week, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision taking center stage.

重大宏觀經濟事件將繼續主導本週的新聞，其中聯準會即將公佈的利率決定成為焦點。

While markets anticipate no surprises from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), recent macroeconomic data points have raised concerns among risk-asset bulls. Market participants fear that lower interest rates may materialize much later than initially anticipated, as indicated by estimates from CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

儘管市場預計聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的最新會議不會出現意外，但最近的宏觀經濟數據點引起了風險資產多頭的擔憂。正如芝加哥商品交易所集團 FedWatch 工具的估計所示，市場參與者擔心較低的利率可能會比最初預期的時間晚得多。

"We have a massive week ahead of us," summarized The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, in its weekly macro outlook thread. "After a month filled with hot inflation data, we will finally get the Fed's updated views."

交易資源《Kobeissi Letter》在其每週宏觀展望主題中總結道：“我們將迎來重要的一周。” “在充滿了熱門通膨數據的一個月之後，我們終於將得到美聯儲的最新觀點。”

Beyond the FOMC, the week's macroeconomic events include commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on May 1, followed by jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and May 3, respectively.

除了 FOMC 之外，本週的宏觀經濟事件還包括聯準會主席鮑威爾 5 月 1 日的評論，隨後分別是 5 月 2 日和 5 月 3 日的失業救濟申請和失業數據。

For Bitcoin and other risk assets, however, the outlook may not be entirely bleak, unless views shift towards a significant deterioration of economic circumstances.

然而，對於比特幣和其他風險資產來說，前景可能並不完全黯淡，除非人們的觀點轉向經濟環境的嚴重惡化。

"Worst case scenario would be consecutively bad spells for risk assets & potentially lead to bets of economy somehow breaking apart," said Skew, a popular trader, regarding the outlook. "Probably see sweep of $50K-$46K area. Don't see that happening till there's HTF close below $58K & narrative for a breakdown."

受歡迎的交易員 Skew 在談到前景時表示：“最糟糕的情況將是風險資產連續出現糟糕的情況，並可能導致對經濟的押注以某種方式崩潰。” “可能會看到 5 萬美元至 4.6 萬美元區域的橫掃。直到 HTF 收盤價低於 5.8 萬美元並且出現崩潰的敘述之前，不會看到這種情況發生。”

Signs of stress are evident this week, with the U.S. experiencing yet another regional bank failure. In Japan, the yen hit its lowest levels against the dollar since 1990 during a period of flash volatility, briefly exceeding 160 before recovering.

本週壓力跡象顯而易見，美國再次遭遇地區銀行倒閉。在日本，日圓兌美元匯率在急劇波動期間觸及 1990 年以來的最低水平，短暫突破 160，然後回升。

Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs Set to Launch

香港比特幣 ETF 即將推出

Shifting focus to Asia, the coming week marks a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's institutional adoption.

將焦點轉向亞洲，未來一周標誌著比特幣機構採用的關鍵時刻。

Similar to the U.S. in January, Hong Kong is preparing to launch spot Bitcoin ETFs, sparking anticipation of significant interest and potential price impact.

與 1 月美國類似，香港正準備推出貨比特幣 ETF，引發了人們的濃厚興趣和潛在價格影響的預期。

Citing a 2022 report from crypto exchange Huobi, Willy Woo, creator of the on-chain statistics platform Woobull, emphasized the substantial demand for spot ETF products.

鏈上統計平台 Woobull 的創建者 Willy Woo 引用加密貨幣交易所 Huobi 的 2022 年報告，強調了現貨 ETF 產品的巨大需求。

"The Asian market in user count is BIGGER than the US and European markets combined," Woo noted in a post on Twitter.

「亞洲市場的用戶數量比美國和歐洲市場的總和還要大，」Woo 在 Twitter 上的一篇貼文中指出。

House of Chimera, a blockchain research and advisory group, estimated potential inflows of $25 billion in a preliminary report on the upcoming ETF launch, citing estimates from Matrixport, a crypto financial services platform.

區塊鏈研究和諮詢集團 House of Chimera 在即將推出的 ETF 的初步報告中引用了加密貨幣金融服務平台 Matrixport 的估計，估計潛在資金流入為 250 億美元。

"The substantial capital potential might lead to increased liquidity and possibly stabilize Bitcoin prices," wrote House of Chimera on Twitter. "It also sets a precedent for other Asian markets, potentially influencing further regulatory adjustments in favor of crypto."

House of Chimera 在推特上寫道：“巨大的資本潛力可能會導致流動性增加，並可能穩定比特幣價格。” “這也為其他亞洲市場樹立了先例，可能會影響進一步有利於加密貨幣的監管調整。”

However, House of Chimera cautioned that investor participation from mainland China could face restrictions due to regulatory hurdles.

不過，House of Chimera 警告稱，由於監管障礙，中國大陸投資者的參與可能會受到限制。

"While the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong is a landmark development, its success and impact on the broader market will depend heavily on regulatory environments, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic factors influencing cryptocurrency valuations," concluded the group.

該組織總結道：「雖然在香港推出比特幣ETF 是一個里程碑式的發展，但其成功和對更廣泛市場的影響將在很大程度上取決於監管環境、投資者情緒和影響加密貨幣估值的宏觀經濟因素。

BTC Price Support Lines at Risk of Retest

BTC價格支撐線面臨重新測試的風險

As Bitcoin hovers near significant support levels, including $60,000 and $58,000, one trendline in particular has emerged as a potential flashpoint.

隨著比特幣徘徊在重要支撐位（包括 60,000 美元和 58,000 美元）附近，一條趨勢線已成為潛在的爆發點。

As reported by Cointelegraph, the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin's short-term holders (STHs) has garnered the attention of analysts.

根據 Cointelegraph 報導，比特幣短期持有者（STH）的總成本基礎引起了分析師的關注。

This investor cohort comprises entities holding a portion of BTC for a maximum of 155 days, embodying the speculative end of the investment spectrum.

該投資者群體由持有部分 BTC 最長期限為 155 天的實體組成，體現了投資範圍的投機性。

STH realized price, currently hovering around $59,800, represents a crucial level to monitor. Throughout Bitcoin's recovery from the 2022 bear market lows, STH realized price has consistently acted as a support, with only a brief period in September 2023 breaking this pattern.

STH 的實現價格目前徘徊在 59,800 美元左右，這是一個需要監控的關鍵水平。在比特幣從 2022 年熊市低點復甦的整個過程中，STH 實現價格一直充當支撐，只有 2023 年 9 月的短暫時期打破了這一模式。

"Will it hold as support this time?" queried Philip Swift, creator of the on-chain data platform Look Into Bitcoin.

“這次能起到支撐作用嗎？”鏈上資料平台 Look Into Bitcoin 的創作者 Philip Swift 問道。

Two mid-term exponential moving averages, or EMAs, known as the "bull market support band," are also positioned to provide damage control in the event of a deeper retracement.

兩條中期指數移動平均線（EMA），被稱為“牛市支撐帶”，也被定位為在出現更深回檔時提供損害控制。

"As we keep consolidating, the bull market support band is catching up to price," wrote popular trader Daan Crypto Trades in his latest post on the topic. "This should offer good support if we were to touch it. Back in 2021 when we broke the 2017 all-time high, we ended up not needing it but took off before the band could catch up."

「隨著我們不斷鞏固，牛市支撐帶正在追趕價格，」受歡迎的交易員 Daan Crypto Trades 在他關於該主題的最新帖子中寫道。 「如果我們要觸及它，這應該會提供良好的支撐。早在 2021 年，當我們突破 2017 年的歷史高點時，我們最終不需要它，但在樂隊趕上之前就起飛了。”

Retail Investors Return to Bitcoin

散戶重返比特幣

In a glimmer of optimism amidst the subdued BTC price action, retail investor interest is resurging.

在比特幣價格走勢低迷的情況下，散戶的興趣正在復甦，但出現了一絲樂觀情緒。

Checkmate, the pseudonymous lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, observed that wallets holding less than 100 BTC are actively increasing their exposure.

Glassnode 的匿名首席鏈上分析師 Checkmate 觀察到，持有少於 100 BTC 的錢包正在積極增加其風險敞口。

Citing data from his own platform, Checkonchain, Checkmate noted that 30-day rolling wallet balances turned positive on April 8 for the first time since mid-January.

Checkmate 引述自己平台 Checkonchain 的數據指出，30 天滾動錢包餘額於 4 月 8 日自 1 月中旬以來首次轉正。

"The Bitcoin retail holders, who are apparently degenerates who will sell on the first sign of a correction... ...appear to be stacking sats once again," he concluded. "Shrimp (<1 $BTC) are accumulating 12.2k $BTC per month as it stands."

他總結道：“比特幣散戶持有者顯然已經墮落了，一旦出現修正跡象就會拋售……似乎再次囤積比特幣。” 「蝦子 （