比特幣的軌跡與過去的減半週期相呼應：投資者預期市場動態

比特幣當前的趨勢反映了其在先前減半週期中的軌跡。在該事件發生之前，比特幣通常會經歷價值上漲。接下來是一段修正或盤整期，然後是減半後的飆升。 2020 年第三次減半時，比特幣上漲了約 2,000%，儘管低於先前的周期。值得注意的是，機構投資者對比特幣表現出越來越大的興趣，這表明其在金融領域的地位不斷變化。專家預計下一次減半可能會發生在四月或五月，這可能會引發牛市週期。

Bitcoin's Current Trajectory: A Mirror of the Past

比特幣當前的軌跡：過去的鏡子

Bitcoin's recent surge, culminating in an impressive all-time high of $73,750 on March 14, has drawn parallels to its behavior during the 2018-2022 halving cycle. As the next halving looms, investors are speculating on what the future holds, guided by historical precedents.

比特幣最近的飆升，在 3 月 14 日達到令人印象深刻的歷史新高 73,750 美元，這與它在 2018-2022 年減半週期期間的表現相似。隨著下一次減半的臨近，投資者正在根據歷史先例猜測未來會發生什麼。

The Halving: A Paradigm of Inflation Control

減半：通膨控制的範例

The Bitcoin halving, a roughly quadrennial event, reduces the block reward given to miners by half, thereby slowing the issuance of new Bitcoins. This mechanism serves as a built-in inflation control measure within the Bitcoin code.

比特幣減半大約每四年一次，它將給予礦工的區塊獎勵減少一半，從而減緩了新比特幣的發行。該機制充當比特幣代碼中內建的通膨控制措施。

Historical Halving Patterns and their Predictive Value

歷史減半模式及其預測價值

Historically, Bitcoin's price performance has exhibited a discernible pattern surrounding halving events. Typically, the price experiences an upswing leading up to the halving, followed by a period of correction or consolidation, before ascending to new heights post-halving.

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格表現圍繞著減半事件呈現出明顯的模式。通常情況下，價格會在減半前經歷上漲，然後是一段修正或盤整期，然後在減半後升至新高。

The First Halving: Bitcoin's Inception and Rise

第一次減半：比特幣的誕生與崛起

The inaugural halving event in 2012 saw the block reward halved from 50 to 25 BTC. During this period, Bitcoin operated under the radar within niche tech communities. Its ascent to mainstream prominence began in 2013, when its value skyrocketed from double digits to over $1,000. Despite this meteoric rise, the broader financial world initially dismissed Bitcoin as a fleeting fad.

2012 年首次減半事件中，區塊獎勵從 50 BTC 減半至 25 BTC。在此期間，比特幣在利基技術社群的雷達下運行。它於 2013 年開始躋身主流，當時其價值從兩位數飆升至 1,000 美元以上。儘管比特幣迅速崛起，但更廣泛的金融界最初並不認為比特幣是曇花一現的時尚。

The Second Halving: Bitcoin's Ascent into the Mainstream

第二次減半：比特幣躋身主流

The second halving in 2016, which reduced the block reward from 25 to 12.5 BTC, coincided with Bitcoin's increasing visibility in the mainstream financial landscape. In the lead-up to the halving, Bitcoin exhibited a bullish trend, rising from around $430 in January to over $750 by early June.

2016 年的第二次減半，將區塊獎勵從 25 BTC 減少到 12.5 BTC，恰逢比特幣在主流金融領域的知名度不斷提高。在減半之前，比特幣呈現看漲趨勢，從 1 月的 430 美元左右上漲到 6 月初的 750 美元以上。

Post-Halving: Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise and Consolidation

減半後：比特幣的快速崛起與整合

Following the completion of the second halving, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation, trading sideways for several months. However, this phase was short-lived as the halving's impact began to materialize. By December 2017, approximately 1.5 years after the halving, Bitcoin had surged to over $19,000, marking an astounding 12,000% gain within that cycle.

第二次減半完成後，比特幣進入盤整期，橫盤盤整數月。然而，隨著減半的影響開始顯現，這個階段是短暫的。到 2017 年 12 月，即減半後約 1.5 年，比特幣已飆升至 19,000 美元以上，標誌著該週期內漲幅高達 12,000%。

The Third Halving: A Pandemic-Era Bull Run

第三次減半：大流行時代的牛市

Leading up to the 2020 halving, Bitcoin displayed a consolidation pattern, hovering around $7,000 to $7,500. As the year progressed, Bitcoin's value gradually increased, reaching around $9,000 in anticipation of the halving.

在 2020 年減半之前，比特幣呈現出盤整格局，徘徊在 7,000 美元至 7,500 美元之間。隨著時間的推移，比特幣的價值逐漸上漲，在減半的預期中達到 9,000 美元左右。

Post-Halving: A Pandemic-Defying Surge

減半後：對抗疫情的激增

Following the halving, Bitcoin witnessed a significant surge in momentum, driven by the diminished supply of new coins. By November 2020, Bitcoin had climbed to around $15,000, exceeding its pre-halving levels. This upward trajectory continued, culminating in a new all-time high of almost $69,000 in November 2021.

減半後，由於新幣供應減少，比特幣的勢頭顯著飆升。到 2020 年 11 月，比特幣已攀升至 15,000 美元左右，超過減半前的水平。這種上升趨勢仍在繼續，並於 2021 年 11 月創下近 69,000 美元的歷史新高。

The Fourth Halving: A New Era Beckons

第四次減半：新時代的召喚

Experts predict the next Bitcoin halving to occur sometime between late April and May. While each halving brings its own unique market dynamics, investors can anticipate a similar pattern of price behavior. Brace yourself for volatility and carefully consider your trading strategies during this transformative event.

專家預測下一次比特幣減半將發生在四月下旬至五月之間的某個時間點。雖然每次減半都會帶來獨特的市場動態，但投資人可以預期類似的價格行為模式。做好應對波動的準備，並在這一變革性事件期間仔細考慮您的交易策略。

Spot ETFs: A Game-Changer in the Bitcoin Narrative

現貨 ETF：比特幣敘事中的遊戲規則改變者

The recent approval of spot BTC ETFs by the SEC has sparked speculation about Bitcoin's potential for further mainstream adoption. Many believe these instruments will draw institutional investors into the crypto space, fueling a sustained bull run.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 最近批准了現貨 BTC ETF，引發了人們對比特幣進一步成為主流的潛力的猜測。許多人認為這些工具將吸引機構投資者進入加密貨幣領域，從而推動持續的牛市。

Crypto Dot.com: A Bubble in the Making?

Crypto Dot.com：泡沫正在形成？

Some analysts have likened the current crypto market to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, emphasizing the influx of institutional capital and technological advancements as drivers of market highs. However, they anticipate this crypto cycle to have a longer duration, influenced by economic factors such as liquidity and interest rates.

一些分析師將目前的加密貨幣市場比作 20 世紀 90 年代末的網路泡沫，強調機構資本的湧入和技術進步是市場高點的驅動力。然而，他們預計，受流動性和利率等經濟因素的影響，這個加密貨幣週期的持續時間會更長。

The Bull Cycle's Peak: A Speculative Horizon

牛市週期的頂峰：投機期

Predictions abound regarding the peak of the current bull cycle, with some analysts suggesting potential highs ranging from $250,000 to $600,000 or more. While the market's ability to defy expectations is well-known, it's crucial to exercise caution and consider the possibility of a subsequent crash.

關於當前牛市週期高峰的預測比比皆是，一些分析師認為潛在高點範圍為 25 萬美元至 60 萬美元或更高。儘管市場超出預期的能力眾所周知，但謹慎行事並考慮隨後崩盤的可能性至關重要。

Trading Strategy: Focus on Buying Power

交易策略：關注購買力

Rather than fixating on USD valuations during the bull cycle, traders are advised to focus on maintaining buying power. This entails accumulating assets with long-term value, ensuring financial resilience during periods of market volatility.

建議交易者在牛市週期中不要專注於美元估值，而應專注於維持購買力。這需要累積具有長期價值的資產，確保市場波動期間的財務彈性。

Closing Thoughts: Embracing the Halving Cycle

結論：擁抱減半週期

As the next Bitcoin halving approaches, investors should embrace the historical patterns and market behaviors that have characterized previous halving cycles. Prepare for price fluctuations, capitalize on opportunities, and exercise caution in your trading decisions.

隨著下一次比特幣減半的臨近，投資人應該接受先前減半週期的歷史模式和市場行為。為價格波動做好準備，利用機會，並在交易決策中謹慎行事。