比特幣短暫高出$ 92,700，在星期二從低點延長了$ 81,500

在過去的48小時中，傳統和加密市場均已穩定，但關鍵波動指數仍然升高

The crypto market continues to stabilize following recent turbulence, with traditional markets also showing signs of recovery. However, despite the stabilization, key volatility indices remain elevated, a factor that could put a damper on bulls who are expecting a steady move higher.

在最近的動蕩之後，加密貨幣市場繼續穩定，傳統市場也顯示出恢復的跡象。然而，儘管穩定，關鍵波動指數仍然升高，這一因素可能會給公牛隊帶來阻礙，他們期望穩定的舉動更高。

As of 1 p.m. ET, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded flat on the day at $91,300. The crypto market leader earlier topped $92,700, extending the recovery from lows around $81,500 hit on Tuesday.

截至美國東部時間下午1點，比特幣（Crypto：BTC）當天以91,300美元的價格交易。加密市場領導者早些時候高出92,700美元，在周二命中率約為81,500美元。

The positive move could be attributed to rumors that President Donald Trump will unveil a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve during Friday’s White House crypto summit.

積極的舉動可能歸因於謠言說，唐納德·特朗普總統將在周五的白宮加密省會期間推出美國戰略比特幣儲備。

Moreover, hopes that Trump’s tariffs, which had threatened to spark a global recession, will likely not endure have helped restore the risk sentiment on Wall Street. Additionally, Germany and China's fiscal rockets offered support to Asian and European equities.

此外，希望特朗普的關稅威脅要引發全球衰退，可能不會忍受，這有助於恢復華爾街的風險情緒。此外，德國和中國的財政火箭為亞洲和歐洲股票提供了支持。

Still, we haven't seen a notable decline in the volatility indices. At press time, Volmex's BVIV index, which measures the implied or expected 30-day price turbulence, held just five points below Tuesday's high of 66% but well above the February low of 49.6%. Perhaps traders see Friday's crypto summit as the make-or-break moment for crypto, as the President, having promised big for months, is now expected to deliver the goods as soon as possible.

不過，我們還沒有看到波動指數的顯著下降。發稿時，Volmex的BVIV指數衡量了隱含或預期的30天價格動盪，僅比周二高66％的高點持有5分，但遠高於2月份的49.6％。也許交易者將周五的加密峰會視為加密貨幣的製造時刻，因為總統承諾要付出幾個月的時間，現在有望盡快交付貨物。

In traditional markets, VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, held at 23.65 Wednesday, the highest since mid-December, according to data source TradingView. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which measures the 30-expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, remained elevated at 104, the highest since November (check chart of the day).

根據數據源TradingView的數據，在傳統市場中，華爾街的恐懼量表在23.65舉行，這是自12月中旬以來最高的。同時，衡量美國財政部票據中30個預期波動率的移動指數在104號（自11月以來最高的）升高（當天的檢查圖）。

The elevated volatility in bonds is particularly concerning as it is known to cause financial tightening and weigh over risk assets. For now, however, a weaker dollar seems to be compensating for that.

債券的波動率提高特別令人擔憂，因為它眾所周知會導致財務收緊並權衡風險資產。但是，目前，較弱的美元似乎正在彌補這一點。

Now, sticky vol indices in traditional markets raise an important question: Is the market's concern solely about tariffs, or are there underlying worries related to a significant slowdown driven by other factors such as potential fiscal consolidation?

現在，傳統市場中的粘性卷指數提出了一個重要的問題：市場是僅關稅的關注，還是與其他因素（例如潛在的財政鞏固）驅動的重大放緩相關的基本擔憂？

The spread between yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill has again turned negative, inverting the yield curve to suggest recession - consecutive quarterly contractions in the GDP. "[This is] generally not a good sign," Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter said in Wednesday's edition.

美國10年期債券的收益率和三個月的國庫法案之間的差額再次變為負面，顛倒了收益曲線以表明經濟衰退 - 連續的GDP季度收縮。 “這通常不是一個好兆頭，” Crypto的作者Noelle Acheson現在在周三版中說。

Early this week, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model signaled a nearly 3% contraction in the U.S. GDP in the first quarter. The number is due for an update today. Recession fears will likely strengthen if we don't see an improvement today, potentially pressuring risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

本周初，亞特蘭大美聯儲的GDPNOW模型在第一季度表示在美國GDP近3％。該號碼應今天進行更新。如果我們今天看不到改善，可能會加劇風險資產，包括加密貨幣，那麼衰退的擔憂可能會加強。

Acheson summed up the situation best: "We are still navigating the tussle between narratives – on one hand, risk-off sentiment driven by macro uncertainty could keep BTC and other crypto assets depressed for a while. On the other hand, the “safe haven” narrative is gaining strength, as positive news from the White House highlights the astonishing shift in official support." Stay alert!

阿奇森最好地總結了情況：“我們仍在瀏覽敘事之間的爭吵 - 一方面，由宏觀不確定性驅動的風險情緒可能會使BTC和其他加密資產抑制一段時間。另一方面，“安全避風港”的敘述是在官方支持中獲得的“避風港”的敘述，正如白宮的正式轉移所獲得的積極新聞。”保持警覺！

What To Watch

看什麼

Crypto

加密

March 6: Ethereum-based L2 blockchain MegaETH deploys its public testnet, with user onboarding starting on March 10.

3月6日：基於以太坊的L2區塊鏈Megaeth部署了公共測試網，用戶將於3月10日開始。

March 6: Quantify Funds’ STKd 100% MSTR & 100% COIN ETF (APED) gets listed on Nasdaq.

3月6日：量化基金的STKD 100％MSTR和100％硬幣ETF（APED）在納斯達克列出。

March 7: President Trump will host the inaugural White House Crypto Summit, bringing together top cryptocurrency founders, CEOs and investors.

3月7日：特朗普總統將主持首屆白宮加密峰會，將高級加密貨幣創始人，首席執行官和投資者匯集在一起​​。

March 11: The Bitcoin Policy Institute and U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis co-host the invitation-only one-day event "Bitcoin for America" in Washington.

3月11日：比特幣政策研究所和美國參議員辛西婭·盧米斯（Cynthia Lummis）在華盛頓共同主持的僅邀請的一日活動“美國比特幣”。

March 12: Hemi, an L2 blockchain that operates on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, has its mainnet launch.

3月12日：Hemi是一個在比特幣和以太坊上運行的L2區塊鏈，其主網發射。

March 14: Pi Network (PI) transitions from Enclosed Mainnet to Open Mainnet.

3月14日：PI Network（PI）從封閉的Mainnet過渡到Open Mainnet。

March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.

3月15日：Athene Network（ATH）Mainnet發布。

March 16, 6:00 p.m.: CME Group’s solana SOLUSD futures start trading.

3月16日，下午6:00：CME集團的Solana Solusd期貨開始交易。

Macro

宏

March 6, 8:15 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council will announce its interest rate decision. Press conference (livestream link) at 8:45 a.m. The Monetary policy statement is released at 9:00 a.m. The ECB staff macroeconomic projections are released at 9:45 a.m.

3月6日，上午8:15：歐洲中央銀行（歐洲央行）理事會將宣布其利率決定。新聞發布會（Rivestream Link）在上午8:45，貨幣政策聲明在上午9:00發布。歐洲央行員工宏觀經濟預測於上午9:45發布

Deposit Facility Rate Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.75%

存款設施利率EST。 2.5％與上一條。 2.75％

Main Refinancing Rate Est.

手工再融資脾臟是。