比特幣長期持有者最近一直在分配

鏈上數據顯示，比特幣長期持有者最近參與了大規模拋售，這一跡象可能對比特幣價格而言並不理想。

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holders Have Been Distributing Heavily - What Does It Mean for BTC Price?

比特幣的長期持有者一直在大量分配——這對比特幣價格意味著什麼？

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have just shown their heaviest profit-taking event of the ongoing cycle, as highlighted by on-chain analyst Checkmate in a new post on X.

正如鏈上分析師 Checkmate 在 X 上的一篇新文章中所強調的那樣，比特幣的長期持有者剛剛展示了當前週期中最嚴重的獲利回吐事件。

Bitcoin LTHs Have Been Moving Their Coins Recently

比特幣 LTH 最近一直在轉移他們的硬幣

As on-chain analyst Checkmate explained in a recent post on X, the Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have just shown their heaviest profit-taking event of the ongoing cycle.

正如鏈上分析師 Checkmate 在 X 最近的一篇文章中所解釋的那樣，比特幣長期持有者 (LTH) 剛剛展示了當前週期中最嚴重的獲利回吐事件。

The “long-term holders” (LTHs) are defined as those BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for more than 155 days. This cohort is one of the two main divisions of the sector based on their holding time, with the other group being the “short-term holders” (STHs).

「長期持有者」（LTH）被定義為持有比特幣超過 155 天的 BTC 投資者。根據持有時間，該群體是該行業的兩個主要類別之一，另一類是「短期持有者」(STH)。

Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs can be considered to include the diamond hands of the market, while the STHs consist of the weak hands.

根據統計，投資者持有代幣的時間越長，他們在任何時候出售代幣的可能性就越小。因此，LTH 可以被認為包括市場的鑽石手，而 STH 則包括弱手。

Although the LTHs don’t sell too often, it would appear that the latest price rally has been too good a profit-taking opportunity for even these HODLers to miss out on.

儘管 LTH 出售的頻率並不高，但最近的價格上漲似乎是一個絕佳的獲利了結機會，即使是這些 HODLers 也不容錯過。

There are several ways to track the behavior of this cohort, with one such being the amount of supply that they are ‘spending.’ Here is a chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in both the 30-day and cumulative value of this Bitcoin metric since November 2023.

有幾種方法可以追蹤該群體的行為，其中一種就是他們「花費」的供應量。以下是分析師分享的圖表，顯示了自 2023 年 11 月以來該比特幣指標的 30 天和累積價值的趨勢。

As the graph shows, the Bitcoin LTHs have seen their 30-day spent supply spiking to high levels recently. In total, these investors have shifted around $60 billion worth of tokens during the past month.

如圖所示，比特幣 LTH 的 30 天消耗供應量最近飆升至高水準。過去一個月，這些投資者總共轉移了價值約 600 億美元的代幣。

Usually, whenever these investors decide to break their dormancy, it’s for selling purposes, so all this movement is likely to correlate to a selloff from the group.

通常，每當這些投資者決定打破休眠狀態時，都是為了拋售，因此所有這些變動都可能與集團的拋售有關。

Naturally, with this spike in the 30-day spent supply, the cumulative value of the spent supply has also shot up. In the context of the current chart, this latter metric is tracking the cumulative value of the amount of distribution that the LTHs have been doing since November 2023.

當然，隨著 30 天已用供應量的激增，已用供應量的累積價值也激增。在目前圖表的背景下，後一個指標正在追蹤 LTH 自 2023 年 11 月以來一直在進行的分配量的累積值。

The reason Checkmate has picked this month as the cutoff is that BTC found the bottom of its last bear market in that month following the FTX crash. In other words, the month serves as the start for the ‘current’ cycle of the asset.

Checkmate 選擇本月作為截止點的原因是 BTC 在 FTX 崩盤後的那個月找到了上一次熊市的底部。換句話說，該月是資產「當前」週期的開始。

At present, the indicator is sitting at $273 billion. This means that the LTH distribution from the past month has made up for about 21% of the entire supply spent since the start of the cycle.

目前，該指標為 2,730 億美元。這意味著上個月的 LTH 分配已佔週期開始以來總供應量的 21% 左右。

From the chart, it’s apparent that these diamond hands had also participated in a massive selloff in the first quarter of the year and it was perhaps this selling that forced Bitcoin into a phase of consolidation.

從圖表中可以明顯看出，這些鑽石手也參與了今年第一季的大規模拋售，也許正是這種拋售迫使比特幣進入了整合階段。

Given this trend, it would be interesting to see whether the recent selling would have a similar effect on BTC or if demand this time around is high enough to overcome this obstacle.

鑑於這種趨勢，看看最近的拋售是否會對比特幣產生類似的影響，或者這次的需求是否足以克服這一障礙，將會很有趣。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is around $95,500, which shows an increase of more than 8% over the last week.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣價格約為 95,500 美元，較上週上漲超過 8%。