比特幣和大股引領華爾街第一季飆升

2024 年第一季度，比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數大盤股飆升，其中比特幣在 ETF 推出和預期減半的情況下上漲了 65%。標準普爾 500 指數上漲 10.16%，其次是那斯達克指數 (9.11%)、道瓊斯指數 (5.62%) 和羅素 2000 指數 (4.81%)。儘管債券殖利率較高，但經濟的彈性支撐了收益，第四季 GDP 修正後為 3.4%。

Bitcoin and Large-Cap Stocks Spearhead Wall Street's First Quarter Surge

比特幣和大盤股引領華爾街第一季飆升

Wall Street witnessed a remarkable surge in the first quarter of 2024, with Bitcoin and the blue-chip stocks of the S&P 500 index emerging as the standout winners. This unprecedented rally underscores the growing institutional acceptance of digital assets and the resilience of the US economy despite rising interest rates.

2024 年第一季度，華爾街股市大幅上漲，比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數的藍籌股成為了佼佼者。這種前所未有的反彈凸顯了機構對數位資產的接受度不斷提高，以及美國經濟在利率上升的情況下仍具有彈性。

Bitcoin's Stellar Performance

比特幣的優異表現

The digital currency Bitcoin surged by an impressive 65% during the quarter, reaching a value of approximately $70,000. This meteoric rise was fueled by a surge of buying activity from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched by Wall Street giants and the prospect of a supply reduction due to the upcoming halving event in April.

數位貨幣比特幣在本季飆升了 65%，價值約為 7 萬美元。華爾街巨頭推出的現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）購買活動激增，以及四月份即將到來的減半事件導致供應減少的前景，推動了這一飛速上漲。

The proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs has played a significant role in attracting institutional investors to the cryptocurrency market. These ETFs have amassed a substantial amount of Bitcoin, valued at approximately $27.5 billion in assets under management. This influx of institutional capital underscores the growing recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset class, offering diversification benefits and potential for substantial returns.

比特幣 ETF 的激增在吸引機構投資者進入加密貨幣市場方面發揮了重要作用。這些 ETF 累積了大量比特幣，管理資產價值約 275 億美元。機構資本的湧入凸顯了人們日益認識到比特幣作為一種合法的投資資產類別，提供多元化的好處和豐厚回報的潛力。

S&P 500's Broad-Based Rally

標普 500 指數廣泛上漲

The S&P 500 index, dominated by large-cap stocks, experienced a healthy gain of 10.16% during the quarter, closing at 5,254.35. This broad-based rally was driven by strong performance across various sectors, including technology, finance, and healthcare.

以大盤股為主的標準普爾 500 指數本季健康上漲 10.16%，收在 5,254.35 點。這次廣泛的反彈是由科技、金融和醫療保健等各行業的強勁表現所推動的。

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index climbed by 9.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 5.62%. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap companies, also posted a respectable gain of 4.81%.

以科技股為主的那斯達克指數上漲 9.11%，道瓊工業指數上漲 5.62%。追蹤小型股公司的羅素 2000 指數也錄得 4.81% 的可觀漲幅。

Resilience in the Face of Rising Interest Rates

面對利率上升的韌性

The gains in Bitcoin and equities occurred despite a steady increase in bond yields. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond ended the quarter with a yield of 4.20%, up from 3.90% at the beginning of the year. This rise in yields reflects the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's decision to postpone interest rate cuts.

儘管債券殖利率穩定上升，但比特幣和股票仍出現上漲。基準 10 年期美國公債本季末殖利率為 4.20%，高於年初的 3.90%。收益率的上升反映了美國經濟的韌性以及聯準會推遲降息的決定。

The robust economic growth, supported by strong consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment, has led to upward revisions in GDP estimates. This positive economic outlook has buoyed stock markets, as they typically anticipate future economic performance.

在強勁的消費者支出和非住宅固定投資的支持下，強勁的經濟成長導致國內生產毛額預測上調。這種積極的經濟前景提振了股市，因為它們通常會預測未來的經濟表現。

Consumer Spending Strengthens

消費者支出增強

Analysts highlight the rebound in consumer spending as a key driver behind the strong GDP growth. Spending rebounded to up 0.8%, exceeding expectations and signaling a healthy consumer appetite. The strong labor market has provided a solid foundation for consumer spending, suggesting that the economy has significant momentum.

分析師強調消費支出反彈是GDP強勁成長的關鍵驅動力。支出反彈至 0.8%，超出預期，顯示消費者胃口健康。強勁的勞動力市場為消費支出提供了堅實的基礎，顯示經濟成長勢頭強勁。

Analysts Remain Cautiously Optimistic

分析師保持謹慎樂觀

Despite the impressive performance in the first quarter, analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future. While earnings remain robust, equity analysts have modestly reduced their earnings estimates for the first quarter. However, the market has demonstrated its resilience in the face of high interest rates, indicating that investors are adjusting to this new economic environment.

儘管第一季的業績令人印象深刻，但分析師對未來的前景仍持謹慎樂觀的態度。儘管獲利依然強勁，但股票分析師小幅下調了第一季的獲利預期。然而，市場在高利率面前表現出了韌性，顯示投資者正在適應這種新的經濟環境。

Bitcoin's Dominance Continues

比特幣的主導地位仍在繼續

Looking ahead, experts believe that Bitcoin will continue to assert its dominance in the cryptocurrency market, maintaining a significant market capitalization and overall market share. The halving event in April, which reduces the supply of new bitcoins, is expected to further support the digital currency's value.

展望未來，專家認為，比特幣將繼續鞏固其在加密貨幣市場的主導地位，並維持顯著的市值和整體市場份額。四月份的減半事件減少了新比特幣的供應，預計將進一步支撐數位貨幣的價值。

Earnings Season to Drive Market Sentiment

財報季將推動市場情緒

For stocks, the upcoming earnings season is seen as the next major catalyst for market sentiment. If companies continue to report strong earnings, the market could extend its upward trajectory. However, analysts remain cautious and emphasize the need to monitor the potential impact of rising interest rates on corporate profits.

對股市而言，即將到來的財報季被視為市場情緒的下一個主要催化劑。如果公司繼續報告強勁的獲利，市場可能會延續其上漲軌跡。不過，分析師仍持謹慎態度，並強調需要監控利率上升對企業利潤的潛在影響。

Conclusion

結論

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a remarkable surge in Bitcoin and large-cap stocks, reflecting the growing institutional acceptance of digital assets and the resilience of the US economy. While analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, the market's performance will be closely watched as earnings season unfolds and the Federal Reserve continues to navigate the challenges of inflation and interest rate policy.

2024 年第一季度，比特幣和大盤股大幅上漲，反映出機構對數位資產的接受度不斷提高以及美國經濟的韌性。儘管分析師對前景保持謹慎樂觀，但隨著財報季的到來以及聯準會繼續應對通膨和利率政策的挑戰，市場表現將受到密切關注。