比特幣的 SOPR 比率發出謹慎訊號，暗示潛在的市場峰值

比特幣支出產出利潤率（SOPR）用於比較長期和短期持有者的獲利能力，目前正在形成歷史頂部模式，表明市場頂部可能正在接近或已經生效。從歷史上看，這種模式與比特幣價格高峰一致，儘管獲利回吐規模隨著時間的推移而縮小，但該指標的頂部始終與價格高點保持一致。 SOPR 比率近期達到峰值，加上比特幣恢復至 66,100 美元上方，短期內可能發出看跌訊號。

Bitcoin's Historical Indicator Signals Potential Market Top

比特幣的歷史指標預示著潛在的市場頂部

In a recent analysis published by CryptoQuant, a leading provider of on-chain data and insights, a critical indicator has emerged, suggesting a potential top in the Bitcoin market. The indicator in question is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Ratio, a metric that gauges whether Bitcoin investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss.

在鏈上數據和見解的領先供應商 CryptoQuant 最近發布的一份分析中，出現了一個關鍵指標，表明比特幣市場可能觸頂。所討論的指標是支出產出利潤率（SOPR）比率，該指標衡量比特幣投資者是否以盈利或虧損的方式出售其代幣。

The SOPR Ratio compares the SOPR of two distinct Bitcoin investor groups: long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). LTHs are defined as those who have held their coins for more than 155 days, while STHs have held their coins for less than 155 days.

SOPR 比率比較了兩個不同的比特幣投資者群體的 SOPR：長期持有者 (LTH) 和短期持有者 (STH)。 LTH 的定義是持幣時間超過 155 天的人，而 STH 的持幣時間少於 155 天的人。

Historically, when the SOPR Ratio exceeds 1, it indicates that LTHs, known for their steadfast hands, are actively taking profits. This pattern has often coincided with market tops in the past.

從歷史上看，當SOPR比率超過1時，顯示以堅定的雙手著稱的LTH正在積極獲利了結。這種模式在過去常常與市場頂部一致。

Currently, the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio has reached a peak and reversed its upward trajectory. This implies that LTHs have been selling a significant portion of their coins at a profit, potentially signaling a market top.

目前，比特幣SOPR比率的7日移動平均線（MA）已達到高峰並扭轉了其上升軌跡。這意味著 LTH 一直在出售其大部分代幣以獲取利潤，這可能預示著市場已見頂。

The chart below illustrates this historical pattern:

下圖說明了這個歷史模式：

[Image of Bitcoin SOPR Ratio chart showing historical peaks and reversals]

[顯示歷史高峰和逆轉的比特幣 SOPR 比率圖表圖片]

As evident from the chart, each peak in the LTH profit-taking has coincided with a market top. While the scale of LTH profit-taking may have diminished over the cycles, the pattern remains consistent.

從圖表中可以明顯看出，LTH 獲利了結的每個高峰都與市場頂部重疊。儘管 LTH 獲利了結的規模可能在各個週期中縮小，但該模式仍然保持一致。

According to the analysis, the recent peak in the SOPR Ratio may indicate a potential top in the current Bitcoin cycle. However, it's crucial to note that the exact degree of decline in the indicator may vary from the historical pattern.

根據分析，近期 SOPR 比率的峰值可能預示著當前比特幣週期的潛在頂部。然而，值得注意的是，該指標的確切下降程度可能與歷史模式有所不同。

Nevertheless, the apparent peak in the SOPR Ratio remains a significant bearish signal, particularly in the short term. This suggests that a market correction or consolidation may be on the horizon.

儘管如此，SOPR 比率的明顯峰值仍然是一個重要的看跌訊號，特別是在短期內。這表明市場調整或盤整可能即將到來。

Bitcoin Price Dynamics

比特幣價格動態

In recent days, Bitcoin has experienced a modest recovery, surging above $66,100. However, the price action should be interpreted with caution in light of the potential market top indicated by the SOPR Ratio.

最近幾天，比特幣經歷了小幅復甦，飆升至 66,100 美元上方。然而，鑑於 SOPR 比率顯示的潛在市場頂部，應謹慎解讀價格走勢。

[Image of Bitcoin price chart showing recent recovery]

[顯示近期復甦的比特幣價格圖表圖]

Traders and investors are advised to monitor the SOPR Ratio closely and remain vigilant to any potential market shifts. While the indicator provides valuable insights, it's essential to consider other factors and conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions.

建議交易者和投資者密切關注 SOPR 比率，並對任何潛在的市場變化保持警惕。雖然該指標提供了有價值的見解，但在做出任何投資決策之前，必須考慮其他因素並進行徹底的盡職調查。

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin SOPR Ratio is a highly effective indicator that has historically provided valuable insights into market trends. The recent peak in the 7-day MA of the SOPR Ratio suggests a potential top in the current Bitcoin cycle.

比特幣 SOPR 比率是一個非常有效的指標，歷來為市場趨勢提供了寶貴的見解。 SOPR 比率 7 天移動平均線的近期高峰表明當前比特幣週期可能達到頂部。

While the exact trajectory of the indicator and the market remain uncertain, the emergence of this historical pattern warrants caution among traders and investors. Careful monitoring of the indicator and other market metrics is crucial to navigate the volatile and unpredictable nature of the cryptocurrency market.

儘管該指標和市場的確切軌跡仍不確定，但這種歷史模式的出現值得交易者和投資者保持謹慎。仔細監控該指標和其他市場指標對於應對加密貨幣市場的波動性和不可預測性至關重要。