隨著業界歡迎即將上任的川普政府的「加密貨幣友善」政策，比特幣飆升至 99,000 美元以上

加密貨幣已經存在了一段時間了。但是，很可能在過去幾年中您已經越來越多地聽說過它。

Bitcoin price today: Cryptocurrency inches closer to $100,000 after record highs, but experts warn of investment risks

今日比特幣價格：加密貨幣在創下歷史新高後逼近 10 萬美元，但專家警告投資風險

Bitcoin price today: Cryptocurrency inches closer to $100,000 after record highs, but experts warn of investment risks

今日比特幣價格：加密貨幣在創下歷史新高後逼近 10 萬美元，但專家警告投資風險

Bitcoin price today, January 13: The cryptocurrency continued its record-breaking streak after inching closer to the $100,000 mark for the first time ever. As of early Friday, BTC was trading at $98,882, according to CoinDesk. The recent surge in interest around bitcoin comes as industry players pin their hopes on the incoming Trump administration to bring a more “crypto-friendly” approach toward regulating the digital currency. Here's a closer look at what's driving the price and what experts are saying about the risks.

今天，即 1 月 13 日，比特幣價格：這種加密貨幣在首次逼近 10 萬美元大關後，繼續其破紀錄的勢頭。據 CoinDesk 稱，截至週五早些時候，BTC 交易價格為 98,882 美元。最近人們對比特幣的興趣激增，業界人士寄望即將上任的川普政府能夠採取更「對加密貨幣友善」的方法來監管數位貨幣。以下是對推動價格的因素以及專家對風險的看法的詳細分析。

Bitcoin price today: A quick recap

今日比特幣價格：快速回顧

After dropping below $17,000 following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, Bitcoin has now recovered to stand at the doorstep of $100,000 — a remarkable turnaround in just two years. The cryptocurrency has rocketed more than 40 per cent in just two weeks.

在加密貨幣交易所 FTX 崩潰後，比特幣跌破 17,000 美元，現在已經恢復到 10 萬美元的門口——這是短短兩年內的一個顯著轉變。這種加密貨幣在短短兩週內就飆升了 40% 以上。

What’s driving Bitcoin price?

是什麼推動了比特幣價格？

A lot of the recent action has to do with the outcome of the US presidential election. Crypto industry players have welcomed Trump's victory, in hopes that he would be able to push through legislative and regulatory changes that they've long lobbied for — which, generally speaking, aim for an increased sense of legitimacy without too much red tape. Trump, who was once a crypto sceptic, recently pledged to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet” and create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. His campaign accepted donations in cryptocurrency and he courted fans at a bitcoin conference in July. He also launched World Liberty Financial, a new venture with family members to trade cryptocurrencies.

最近的許多行動都與美國總統大選的結果有關。加密貨幣行業參與者對川普的勝利表示歡迎，希望他能夠推動他們長期以來遊說的立法和監管改革——一般來說，這些改革的目標是在沒有太多繁文縟節的情況下增強合法性。曾經對加密貨幣持懷疑態度的川普最近承諾讓美國成為“地球的加密貨幣之都”，並創建比特幣的“戰略儲備”。他的競選活動接受了加密貨幣捐款，並在 7 月的比特幣會議上吸引了粉絲。他也與家族成員創立了世界自由金融公司（World Liberty Financial），從事加密貨幣交易。

How of this will actually pan out — and whether or not Trump will successfully act quickly on these promises — has yet to be seen. “This is not necessarily a short-term story, it's likely a much longer-term story," Citi macro strategist David Glass told The Associated Press last week. "And there is the question of how quickly can US crypto policy make a serious impact on (wider adoption).”

這實際上將如何實現——以及川普是否會成功地迅速兌現這些承諾——還有待觀察。花旗宏觀策略師大衛·格拉斯上週對美聯社表示：“這不一定是一個短期故事，它可能是一個長期故事。”“問題是美國的加密貨幣政策能多快產生嚴重影響。” （更廣泛的採用）。

Adam Morgan McCarthy, a research analyst at Kaiko, thinks the industry is craving “just some sort of clarity”. Much of the approach to regulating crypto in the past has been “enforcement based”, he notes, which has been helpful in weeding out some bad actors — but legislation might fill in other key gaps.

Kaiko 研究分析師 Adam Morgan McCarthy 認為，該行業渴望「某種程度的明確性」。他指出，過去監管加密貨幣的大部分方法都是“基於執法”，這有助於清除一些不良行為者，但立法可能會填補其他關鍵空白。

Gary Gensler, who as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission under President Joe Biden has led a US government's crackdown on the crypto industry, penalised a number of crypto companies for violating securities laws. Gensler announced on Thursday that he would step down as SEC chair on January 20, Inauguration Day. Despite crypto's recent excitement around Trump, McCarthy said that 2024 has already been a “hugely consequential year for regulation in the US” — pointing to January's approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, for example, which mark a new way to invest in the asset.

加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）在喬·拜登總統領導下擔任美國證券交易委員會主席，領導了美國政府對加密貨幣行業的打擊，他對多家違反證券法的加密貨幣公司進行了處罰。 Gensler 週四宣布，他將於 1 月 20 日就職日辭去 SEC 主席職務。儘管加密貨幣最近圍繞川普而令人興奮，但麥卡錫表示，2024 年已經是「美國監管影響重大的一年」——例如，他指出1 月批准了現貨比特幣ETF，這標誌著一種投資該資產的新方式。

Spot ETFs have been the dominant driver of bitcoin for some time now — but, like much of the crypto's recent momentum, saw record inflows postelection.

一段時間以來，現貨 ETF 一直是比特幣的主要推動力，但與加密貨幣近期的大部分勢頭一樣，在大選後資金流入創歷史新高。

According to Kaiko, bitcoin ETFs recorded $6 billion in trade volume for the week of the election alone. In April, bitcoin also saw its fourth “halving” — a preprogrammed event that impacts production by cutting the reward for mining, or the creation of new bitcoin, in half. In theory, if demand remains strong, some analysts say this “supply shock” can also help propel the price long term. Others note it may be too early to tell.

據 Kaiko 稱，光是選舉當週，比特幣 ETF 的交易量就達到了 60 億美元。四月份，比特幣還經歷了第四次「減半」——這是一個預先編程的事件，透過將採礦或新比特幣的創造獎勵減半來影響生產。理論上，如果需求保持強勁，一些分析師表示，這種「供應衝擊」也可能有助於長期推動價格。其他人指出，現在下結論可能還為時過早。

What are the risks?

有哪些風險？

History shows you can lose money in crypto as quickly as you've made it. Long-term price behaviour relies on larger market conditions. Trading continues at all hours, every day. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin stood at just over $5,000. Its price climbed to nearly $69,000 by November 2021, during high demand for technology assets, but later crashed during an aggressive series of Federal Reserve rate hikes. And in late 2022 collapse of FTX significantly undermined confidence in crypto overall, with bitcoin falling below $17,000. Investors began returning in large numbers as inflation started to cool — and gains skyrocketed on the anticipation and then early success of spot ETFs. But experts still stress caution, especially for small-pocketed investors. And lighter regulation from the coming Trump administration could mean less guardrails. While its been a big month for crypto — and particularly bitcoin, which McCarthy notes has set record highs for ten of the last 21 days — there's always risk for “

歷史表明，你在加密貨幣領域賺錢的速度可能和你賺錢的速度一樣快。長期價格行為依賴更大的市場條件。交易每天全天候進行。在 COVID-19 大流行開始時，比特幣價格略高於 5,000 美元。到 2021 年 11 月，在技術資產需求旺盛期間，其價格攀升至近 69,000 美元，但後來在聯準會一系列激進加息期間暴跌。 2022 年底，FTX 的崩潰嚴重削弱了人們對加密貨幣的整體信心，比特幣跌破 17,000 美元。隨著通膨開始降溫，投資者開始大量回歸，並且由於現貨 ETF 的預期和早期成功，收益飆升。但專家們仍然強調謹慎，尤其是對於財力有限的投資者。即將上任的川普政府放鬆監管可能意味著更少的護欄。雖然對於加密貨幣（尤其是比特幣）來說這是一個重要的月份，麥卡錫指出，比特幣在過去 21 天中有 10 天創下了歷史新高，但始終存在“