比特幣在極端財務壓力下的短期持有人

目前，在極端的財務壓力下，比特幣的短期持有人（STH）看到未實現的損失堆積起來，因為旗艦加密貨幣的價格一如既往。

The short-term holders of Bitcoin (BTC) are beginning to feel the pressure as the price of the flagship cryptocurrency remains as volatile as ever.

隨著旗艦加密貨幣的價格像以往一樣，比特幣（BTC）的短期持有人（BTC）開始感到壓力。

As the situation feels acute, some experts say the losses are actually within historical norms and still look better than the unrealized loss situation Bitcoin (BTC) was in in 2015-2016 (again, at a similar stage in the then-current halving cycle). That said, this piece isn’t about prettying up Bitcoin ETF inflows. It explores the possible significance of what these inflows into Bitcoin ETFs might mean for the price of Bitcoin itself. And: what kind of trends, both bearish and bullish, could play out from here.

由於情況感到敏銳，一些專家說，這些損失實際上處於歷史規範之內，而且看起來仍然比未實現的損失情況比特幣（BTC）在2015 - 2016年（同樣在當時的減半週期中的類似階段）。也就是說，這件作品並不是要漂亮的比特幣ETF流入。它探討了這些流入比特幣ETF的可能性可能對比特幣本身的價格意味著。而且：看跌和看漲的趨勢可以從這裡發揮出來。

#BTC's Short-Term Holders are under increasing pressure. Unrealized losses have surged, pushing many STH coins underwater, nearing the +2σ threshold. Still, losses remain within historical bull market bounds and are less severe than the May 2021 sell-off: https://t.co/dybs05jV9T

＃BTC的短期持有人的壓力正在增加。未實現的損失已經激增，將許多STH硬幣推向水下，接近 +2σ閾值。儘管如此，損失仍然在歷史牛市範圍內，不如2021年5月的拋售：https：//t.co/dybs05jv9t

This is a very concerning trend for anyone who bought Bitcoin at the higher prices we’ve seen in recent months.

對於以近幾個月來購買比特幣的任何人來說，這是一個非常令人關注的趨勢。

According to the most current reports, Bitcoin’s short-term holders sustained an eye-popping $7 billion rolling 30-day realized loss, the largest and most sustained loss event for STHs in this current cycle. The size of this number puts the strain on showing when investors were realized they were better off NOT holding the token that trades on the open market. On the other hand, the severity and size of the short-term losses underreport the amount of upside-downness that holders are really feeling because the reported losses are still not anywhere close to what was reported back in the 2021-2022 period when $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion were the amounts being reported as short-term holder realized losses.

根據目前的最新報導，比特幣的短期持有人在本期週期中，比特幣的短期持有人持續了70億美元的滾動30天的損失，這是STHS中最大，最持續的損失事件。這個數字的規模賦予了何時表明投資者意識到他們最好不要在公開市場上交易的代幣。另一方面，短期損失的嚴重性和規模不足以說明持有人真正感到的顛倒數量，因為所報告的損失仍未在2021 - 2022年期間報告的額定損失尚未接近報告的198億美元和2007億美元，而這些損失是短期持有人實現損失的金額。

Short-Term Holders Feeling the Squeeze

短期持有者感到擠壓

Bitcoin's short-term holders, defined as those holding for less than six months, are experiencing significant unrealized losses as the price of Bitcoin fluctuates. Data reveals that a growing number of STH coins are now underwater, with total unrealized losses nearly reaching the +2 standard deviation threshold, a level that signals substantial pressure on this part of the market.

比特幣的短期持有人被定義為持有少於六個月的人，隨著比特幣的價格波動，比特幣的持有人正在經歷重大未實現的損失。數據表明，現在越來越多的STH硬幣正在水下，總未實現的損失幾乎達到了+2標準偏差閾值，這一水平標誌著市場的這一部分巨大壓力。

As the saying goes, all trends eventually come to an end, and in the case of Bitcoin ETF inflows, it does appear that they may be slowing. On March 21, for instance, Bitcoin spot ETFs registered total net inflows of $83.0919 million. This was the sixth straight day that the ETFs saw net inflows. These ETFs are now managing about $1.496 billion in assets, and that figure is up about 15.64 percent since the start of this month.

俗話說，所有趨勢最終都結束了，在比特幣ETF流入的情況下，似乎它們可能正在放緩。例如，在3月21日，比特幣現場ETF的總淨流入量為830.919億美元。這是ETF連續第六天看到淨流入的。這些ETF現在管理著約14.96億美元的資產，自本月初以來，該數字增長了約15.64％。

On the other hand, Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a total net outflow of $18.6309 million, marking a 13th day of net outflows.

另一方面，以太坊斑點ETF的總淨流出為186.3萬美元，標誌著淨流出的第13天。

The persistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs indicate a building trust in the asset's lasting value. Long-term investors appear to be seeking more exposure to Bitcoin but prefer vehicles that are regulated and resemble more traditional investments. If this trend continues, it might help the Bitcoin market serve up a price that is more appealing to those buying it. In that case, the ETF might help constitute something of a “stability ball” for Bitcoin in the short run.

持續流入比特幣ETF表示對資產持久價值的建築信任。長期投資者似乎正在尋求更多接觸比特幣，但更喜歡受監管並類似於傳統投資的車輛。如果這種趨勢持續下去，它可能會幫助比特幣市場提高價格對購買的價格更具吸引力的價格。在這種情況下，ETF在短期內可能有助於比特幣構成“穩定球”。

Outlook for Bitcoin's Short-Term Holders

比特幣短期持有人的前景

The standoff of Bitcoin's short-term holders is getting tenser by the day, with unrecognized losses swelling as the price of the asset refuses to show any decisive upward momentum. Yet, these unrecognized losses are still relatively modest when stacked against the previous two-thirds or so of the last two Bitcoin market cycles. Yes, short-term holders are feeling the heat—but not in a way that suggests current losses are so painful folks are being forced to throw in the towel.

比特幣短期持有人的僵局每天都會變得緊張，因為資產的價格拒絕表現出任何果斷的上升勢頭，因此無法識別的損失腫脹。然而，當與最後兩個比特幣市場週期中的前三分之二左右堆疊時，這些未認可的損失仍然相對謙虛。是的，短期持有人正在感覺到熱量，但並非以表明當前的損失是如此痛苦的人們被迫扔毛巾。

Concurrent with this, the inflows into Bitcoin ETFs ongoing inflows into highlight ETFs into Bitcoin are from institutional investors and show that there is a belief in the long-term potential of this asset class. As long as this trend persists, seems to be in place, there is a knee-jerk market reaction that tends to give short-term holders a bit of cushion from otherwise downward pressures.

同時，將流入比特幣ETF的流入流入重點ETF進入比特幣的流入來自機構投資者，並表明人們相信該資產類別的長期潛力。只要這種趨勢持續存在，似乎已經存在，就會有一個膝蓋的市場反應，往往會給短期持有人帶來一些距離的緩衝。

In conclusion, while holders of Bitcoin in the short term face tough issues with unrealized losses that are becoming more and more substantial, the overall market is still being carried by oh-so-much institutional optimism and a carry-on influx of capital into Bitcoin ETFs. This means that while the next six to twelve months look like they could be quite turbulent for short-term holders of Bitcoin, the much broader picture for Bitcoin looks positive and is probably driven by the continued institutional adoption and support of Bitcoin.

總之，儘管短期內比特幣的持有人面臨著越來越多的損失的艱難問題，但越來越多的損失越來越實現，但整個市場仍然受到OH-SOUCH機構的樂觀情緒，並將資本湧入到比特幣ETF中。這意味著，儘管接下來的六到十二個月看起來對比特幣的短期持有人來說可能是非常動蕩的，但比特幣的更廣泛的情況看起來很積極，並且可能是由持續的機構採用和對比特幣的支持所驅動的。