比特幣可能在選舉日重回歷史新高

英國跨國銀行渣打銀行的分析師仍看好比特幣（BTC），儘管這種首次出現的加密貨幣仍徘徊在心理層面以下。

Standard Chartered analysts are bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) despite the coin trading below the key psychological level of $70,000. They now predict BTC could hit $125,000 before the year ends if the Republican Party wins the U.S. Congress in the presidential elections next month.

儘管比特幣交易價格低於 7 萬美元的關鍵心理水平，但渣打銀行分析師仍看好比特幣。他們現在預測，如果共和黨在下個月的總統選舉中贏得美國國會，比特幣可能會在年底前達到 12.5 萬美元。

Bitcoin Could Hit All-Time High Again On Election Day

比特幣可能在選舉日再次創下歷史新高

In a recent report, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin could hit highs of around $73,000 by November 5, the day the next president of the United States is picked.

在最近的一份報告中，渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 預測，到 11 月 5 日，即下一任美國總統當選的當天，比特幣可能會達到 73,000 美元左右的高點。

If former president Donald Trump is reelected, Kendrick argued that the price of the premier crypto will increase by around 4% after the result is announced, based on an analysis of BTC derivatives and trading volume indicators. The crypto will then rally another 10% in the following days.

肯德里克認為，如果前總統川普連任，根據對 BTC 衍生性商品和交易量指標的分析，結果公佈後，頂級加密貨幣的價格將上漲 4% 左右。加密貨幣將在接下來的幾天內再上漲 10%。

“Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around USD 73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win; this is slightly below the USD 73,800 all-time high recorded in March.”

「我們的基本情況是，到選舉日，比特幣價格將升至 73,000 美元左右，趕上川普獲勝的博彩市場機率；這略低於 3 月創下的 73,800 美元的歷史高點。

However, if Vice President Kamala Harris emerges victorious, Kendrick believes Bitcoin will likely sell off initially but will end the year trading at all-time highs of around $75,000.

然而，如果副總統卡瑪拉·哈里斯（Kamala Harris）獲勝，肯德里克認為比特幣最初可能會遭到拋售，但年底交易價格將達到 75,000 美元左右的歷史高點。

“Bitcoin prices have been driven higher in recent weeks, coinciding with other trades popular among Trump supporters,” he postulated. Polymarket now shows Trump with a 59% chance of winning and a 75% conditional probability of a Republican sweep if Trump wins.

他推測：“最近幾週，比特幣價格一直走高，與川普支持者流行的其他交易同時發生。” Polymarket 現在顯示川普獲勝的可能性為 59%，如果川普獲勝，共和黨橫掃共和黨的條件機率為 75%。

Trump has presented himself as a crypto supporter, despite past negative comments on the industry, while opponent Kamala Harris has only just started to reveal policy plans toward digital assets.

儘管過去對該行業發表了負面評論，但川普仍將自己視為加密貨幣的支持者，而對手卡馬拉·哈里斯才剛開始透露針對數位資產的政策計畫。

Kendrick is not the only industry spectator who has shown confidence in Trump. Bitwise’s head of Alpha Strategies, Jeff Park, recently forecasted BTC’s potential moonshot to as high as $92,000 if Trump retakes the White House.

肯德里克並不是唯一對川普表現出信心的產業旁觀者。 Bitwise 的 Alpha Strategies 主管 Jeff Park 最近預測，如果川普重新入主白宮，BTC 的潛在登月價格將高達 92,000 美元。

However, other industry pundits like Larry Fink, the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, believe BTC will thrive over the long term, irrespective of who wins the impending presidential election.

然而，全球最大資產管理公司執行長拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)等其他行業專家認為，無論誰贏得即將到來的總統選舉，比特幣都將長期蓬勃發展。

Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,425, reflecting a +1.3% change on the day.

比特幣目前交易價格為 67,425 美元，當天漲幅為 +1.3%。