比特幣的 NVT 金叉訊號顯示市場過熱，可能會出現修正

比特幣網路交易價值（NVT）金十字指標最近飆升至3.17，顯示市場過熱，價格可能觸頂。該指標比較了 NVT 比率的短期和長期趨勢，該比率衡量比特幣相對於交易量的市值。從歷史上看，NVT Golden Cross 的值高於 2.2 就表明估值過高，通常先於價格調整。

Bitcoin's NVT Golden Cross Signals Market Overheating and Price Correction

比特幣的NVT黃金交叉訊號顯示市場過熱和價格調整

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price coincided with a surge in the NVT Golden Cross indicator, raising concerns about the market's overheated nature and potential for a correction.

最近比特幣價格的飆升與 NVT Golden Cross 指標的飆升同時發生，引發了人們對市場過熱性質和回調潛力的擔憂。

NVT Golden Cross: A Measure of Market Sentiment

NVT Golden Cross：衡量市場情緒的指標

The NVT Golden Cross is a modified version of the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) metric, which gauges the ratio between Bitcoin's market capitalization and transaction volume. High NVT values indicate that the asset's price is elevated compared to its utility, while low values suggest undervaluation.

NVT Golden Cross 是 NVT（網路交易價值）指標的修改版本，該指標衡量比特幣市值與交易量之間的比率。高 NVT 值表示資產的價格與其效用相比較高，而低值表示資產被低估。

The NVT Golden Cross compares the short-term trend of the NVT (10-day moving average) to its long-term trend (30-day MA). Historically, values above 2.2 have signaled overheated conditions, while values below -1.6 have hinted at undervaluation.

NVT 金十字將 NVT（10 日移動平均線）的短期趨勢與其長期趨勢（30 日移動平均線）進行比較。從歷史上看，高於 2.2 的值表示過熱狀況，而低於 -1.6 的值則暗示估計。

Recent Surge and Overheating Signal

最近的突波和過熱訊號

During Bitcoin's recent rally to $71,000, the NVT Golden Cross spiked to 3.17, reaching levels not seen since the 2017 bull market. This surge suggested that the market had become overheated, with the current price outpacing the underlying network activity.

在比特幣最近上漲至 71,000 美元期間，NVT 黃金交叉指數飆升至 3.17，達到 2017 年牛市以來的最高水平。這種飆升表明市場已經過熱，當前價格超過了基礎網路活動。

Historical Correlation with Price Corrections

與價格修正的歷史相關性

In the past, similar surges in the NVT Golden Cross have often preceded price corrections. After hitting high levels in 2017 and 2021, the indicator has subsequently declined alongside Bitcoin's price.

過去，NVT Golden Cross 的類似飆升往往先於價格調整。在 2017 年和 2021 年觸及高位後，該指標隨後隨比特幣價格一起下跌。

Current Market Dynamics

當前市場動態

Since the recent overheated signal, the NVT Golden Cross has cooled off along with Bitcoin's price. However, it has not yet crossed into negative territory, indicating that the market sentiment remains relatively bullish.

自從最近的過熱訊號以來，NVT Golden Cross 已隨著比特幣的價格降溫。然而，它尚未進入負值區域，表明市場情緒仍然相對看漲。

Price Recovery and Potential Correction

價格回升和潛在修正

Bitcoin has rebounded in the past day, partially recovering from its recent losses. However, the NVT Golden Cross's previous overheated signal and its correlation with price corrections suggest that the risk of a further correction remains.

比特幣在過去一天有所反彈，部分從近期的損失中恢復過來。然而，NVT Golden Cross 先前的過熱訊號及其與價格調整的相關性表明，進一步調整的風險仍然存在。

Analyst Perspectives

分析師觀點

"The NVT Golden Cross provided a clear indication of the recent top in Bitcoin's price," said an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post. "Such high values have historically been associated with overheated market conditions and subsequent corrections."

一位分析師在 CryptoQuant Quicktake 帖子中表示：“NVT Golden Cross 清楚地表明了比特幣價格近期的頂部。” “從歷史上看，如此高的價值與市場過熱和隨後的調整有關。”

Another analyst noted, "While Bitcoin has rebounded slightly, the NVT Golden Cross remains in a cautionary zone. Investors should be aware of the potential for a deeper correction if the indicator fails to maintain its downward trend."

另一位分析師指出，“雖然比特幣小幅反彈，但 NVT Golden Cross 仍處於警戒區域。投資者應該意識到，如果該指標未能維持下降趨勢，可能會出現更深層的回調。”

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has emerged as a valuable indicator for gauging market sentiment and identifying potential overheating conditions. Its recent surge to 3.17, followed by a partial cooldown, suggests that the market remains at risk of a correction. Investors are advised to monitor the indicator's trend and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

比特幣 NVT Golden Cross 已成為衡量市場情緒和識別潛在過熱狀況的寶貴指標。最近飆升至 3.17，隨後出現部分降溫，顯示市場仍面臨回檔風險。建議投資人密切注意該指標的走勢並相應調整交易策略。