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比特幣是引人注目的推動者,週一觸及一個月高位,在美聯儲上周大幅降息後維持了漲勢
Bitcoin hit one-month highs and the dollar firmed against the yen on Monday in a quiet Asian session, as traders awaited further cues on U.S. interest rates and their impact on global markets and currencies.
週一,在平靜的亞洲交易時段,比特幣觸及一個月高位,美元兌日圓走強,交易者等待有關美國利率及其對全球市場和貨幣影響的進一步線索。
Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $63,243 and was not far from the one-month high of $63,431 it hit on Sept. 19.
比特幣上漲 0.8% 至 63,243 美元,距離 9 月 19 日觸及的一個月高點 63,431 美元不遠。
The dollar was around 144.08 yen at the start of the Asian session, having hit a two-week high of 144.50 last week. The greenback hit a two-decade low of 139.69 yen on Sept. 12.
亞洲時段開盤時,美元兌日圓匯率約144.08日圓,上週曾觸及兩周高點144.50。 9 月 12 日,美元兌日圓觸及 20 年來最低點 139.69。
The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged last week and indicated it was in no hurry to hike them again, putting a pause to the yen’s sharp gains this month. The currency is up 1.4% in September.
日本央行上週維持利率不變,並表示不急於再次升息,阻止了日圓本月的大幅上漲。 9 月該貨幣上漲 1.4%。
The main driver of trade was expectations around further Fed rate cuts and the gains those have spurred in equities, commodity currencies and other risk assets.
貿易的主要驅動力是對聯準會進一步降息的預期以及刺激股票、大宗商品貨幣和其他風險資產上漲的預期。
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against major currencies, gained slightly to 100.8, continuing to stay above the one-year low it hit last week.
衡量美元兌主要貨幣匯率的美元指數小幅上漲至100.8,並持續維持在上週觸及的一年低點上方。
The Fed's rate cut "appears to have calmed market fears of a U.S. recession", Goldman Sachs said in a note. "Our G10 FX team expect a slight rebound for the U.S. dollar over the next 3 months, before easing again on a 6- and 12-month view."
高盛在報告中表示,聯準會降息「似乎平息了市場對美國經濟衰退的擔憂」。 “我們的 G10 外匯團隊預計美元將在未來 3 個月內小幅反彈,然後在 6 個月和 12 個月的觀點上再次放鬆。”
Fed futures traders have priced in 75 bps in rate cuts by the end of this year, and nearly 200 bps in cuts by December 2025 that will take the Fed's policy rate by the end of 2025 to 2.75%, according to CME FedWatch.
根據 CME FedWatch 的數據,聯準會期貨交易員預計到今年底降息 75 個基點,到 2025 年 12 月降息近 200 個基點,這將使聯準會的政策利率到 2025 年底降至 2.75%。
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been steepening after the Fed's rate cut, and investors added to bets favoring a second outsized rate cut after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday he was worried inflation may soon be running substantially below the central bank's 2% target.
聯準會降息後,美國公債殖利率曲線一直陡峭,在聯準會理事克里斯多福沃勒(Christopher Waller)週五表示擔心通膨可能很快大幅低於央行2%的目標後,投資人加大了對第二次大幅降息的押注。
Meanwhile, the majority of economists polled by Reuters anticipate two more 25 bps rate cuts at the Fed's final two meetings this year.
同時,路透社調查的大多數經濟學家預計,聯準會今年最後兩次會議將再降息兩次,每次 25 個基點。
In weekend news, U.S. House Republicans unveiled a three-month stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown.
週末消息,美國眾議院共和黨宣布了一項為期三個月的權宜之計法案,以避免政府關閉。
For the yen, an upcoming ruling party vote later this week to choose a new prime minister makes the BOJ's job challenging in the coming months. A snap election is seen as likely in late October.
對於日圓而言,執政黨將於本週稍後投票選舉新首相,這使得日本央行未來幾個月的工作面臨挑戰。人們認為十月下旬可能會提前舉行選舉。
Liberal Democratic Party frontrunners to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have presented diverse views on monetary policy.
接替即將卸任首相岸田文雄的自民黨領跑者對貨幣政策提出了不同的看法。
Sanae Takaichi - who would become the nation's first female premier - is a reflationist who has accused the Bank of Japan of raising rates too soon. Shigeru Ishiba has said the central bank is "on the right policy track", while Shinjiro Koizumi, son of charismatic ex-premier Junichiro Koizumi, has so far only said he will respect the BOJ's independence.
將成為日本首位女首相的高市早苗是一位通貨再膨脹論者,她指責日本央行過早升息。石破茂表示,央行“走在正確的政策軌道上”,而魅力十足的前首相小泉純一郎之子小泉進次郎迄今為止只表示,他將尊重日本央行的獨立性。
The selection presents two-way risks for yen, Barclays analysts wrote on the weekend. "The main risk here is if Abenomics advocate Takaichi wins, this could pose headwinds to the BOJ's policy-normalization plan and raise concerns about fiscal discipline," they said.
巴克萊分析師週末寫道,這項選擇為日圓帶來了雙向風險。他們表示:“這裡的主要風險是,如果安倍經濟學的倡導者高一獲勝,這可能會給日本央行的政策正常化計劃帶來阻力,並引發人們對財政紀律的擔憂。”
That could lead to a steeper Japanese bond curve and downside pressure on the yen as investors pare expectations for another rate rise, they said.
他們表示,隨著投資者降低對再次升息的預期,這可能導致日本債券曲線更加陡峭,並給日圓帶來下行壓力。
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday, with its governor saying the central bank had to be "careful not to cut too fast or by too much."
英國央行週四維持利率不變,行長表示央行必須「小心不要降息太快或降幅太大」。
The pound was down 0.1% at $1.3310, staying near highs it hit on Friday after the release of strong British retail sales data.
英鎊下跌0.1%至1.3310美元,維持在周五公佈強勁的英國零售銷售數據後觸及的高點附近。
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