比特幣即將到來的頂峰：衰變與權力、交易者衝突

Peter Brandt 的「指數衰減」理論表明，比特幣目前的牛市可能已經達到 70,000 美元的頂峰，進一步上漲的可能性只有 25%。然而，喬瓦尼·桑托斯塔西(Giovanni Santostasi) 的「冪律」行為等替代模型預測，到2025 年12 月，價格峰值將高得多，達到210,000 美元，而其他分析師則預計潛在的周期峰值範圍為120,000 美元至180,000 美元。

Bitcoin's Potential Peak: Exponential Decay Theory vs. Power Law Model

比特幣的潛在峰值：指數衰減理論與冪律模型

Amid the ongoing Bitcoin bull run, the question of its potential peak has sparked considerable debate within the cryptocurrency community. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has proposed an "exponential decay" pattern, suggesting that Bitcoin may have already reached its zenith in this cycle. However, alternative price models, such as the power law model, posit that the peak may still be significantly higher.

在持續的比特幣牛市中，其潛在高峰的問題在加密貨幣社群內引發了相當大的爭論。資深交易員彼得·勃蘭特提出了「指數衰減」模式，表明比特幣可能已經在這個週期中達到了頂峰。然而，替代價格模型（例如冪律模型）認為峰值可能仍然要高得多。

Exponential Decay Theory: Peak Reached at $70,000?

指數衰減理論：峰值達到 70,000 美元？

Peter Brandt's exponential decay theory postulates that the peak price of each successive Bitcoin bull market cycle exhibits a 20% decline compared to the previous cycle's peak. Historical data supports this pattern in the last three Bitcoin market cycles.

Peter Brandt 的指數衰減理論假設，每個連續的比特幣牛市週期的峰值價格與上一個週期的峰值相比都會下降 20%。過去三個比特幣市場週期的歷史數據支持了這種模式。

Based on this decay rate, Brandt estimates that the current cycle will witness a 4.5x gain from its low of around $15,500, resulting in a potential cycle top of approximately $70,000. Notably, Bitcoin has already surpassed this level, reaching a high of over $73,000 in March.

根據這一衰減率，Brandt 估計當前週期將比 15,500 美元左右的低點上漲 4.5 倍，從而導致潛在的週期頂部約為 70,000 美元。值得注意的是，比特幣已經突破了這一水平，在 3 月達到了超過 73,000 美元的高位。

However, Brandt himself acknowledges the limited probability of this theory, assigning a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle.

然而，布蘭特本人也承認此理論的可能性有限，認為比特幣在本週期中已經見頂的可能性為 25%。

Rebuttal by the Power Law Model: Peak Projected at $210,000

冪律模型的反駁：峰值預計為 210,000 美元

Giovanni Santostasi, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy, challenges Brandt's exponential decay theory with his own model based on long-term power law behavior. He highlights the insufficiency of data points to draw statistically significant conclusions from Brandt's theory.

Quantonomy 執行長兼研究總監 Giovanni Santostasi 以他自己的基於長期冪律行為的模型挑戰了 Brandt 的指數衰減理論。他強調了數據點的不足，無法從布蘭特的理論中得出具有統計意義的結論。

Santostasi employs a power law relationship, where one quantity (BTC price) varies as a power of another quantity (time). Extrapolating from the genesis block, his price model predicts a fourth cycle peak of around $210,000 in December 2025.

Santostasi 採用冪律關係，其中一個數量（BTC 價格）隨著另一個數量（時間）的冪而變化。從創世區塊推斷，他的價格模型預測 2025 年 12 月將出現第四個週期峰值，約 21 萬美元。

Other Price Predictions and Market Sentiment

其他價格預測和市場情緒

Numerous other analysts and traders have offered their predictions for Bitcoin's peak in this cycle. Pav Hundal of Swyftx estimates a price target of $120,000 by the next halving in 2028. Laurent Benayoun of Acheron Trading forecasts a potential peak of $180,000.

許多其他分析師和交易員也對比特幣在本週期達到頂峰做出了預測。 Swyftx 的 Pav Hundal 估計，到 2028 年下一次減半時，目標價為 12 萬美元。

While these predictions vary, they generally suggest that Bitcoin still has room for growth before reaching its peak. However, it is important to note that market sentiment can fluctuate rapidly, and unexpected events can influence price movements.

儘管這些預測各不相同，但它們普遍表明比特幣在達到頂峰之前仍有成長空間。然而，值得注意的是，市場情緒可能會迅速波動，意外事件可能會影響價格趨勢。

Current Market Status

目前市場狀況

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,528, a 15% decline from its all-time high in mid-March. Despite this pullback, the market sentiment remains largely bullish, with many analysts anticipating further appreciation in the long term.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 62,528 美元，較 3 月中旬的歷史高點下跌 15%。儘管出現這種回調，但市場情緒仍然基本看漲，許多分析師預計長期來看將進一步升值。