比特幣持有人可能再次領先於曲線

根據加密企業家安東尼·彼得索諾（Anthony Pompompome）的說法，比特幣投資者是第一個確定美國官方經濟數據並採取相應行動的裂縫的投資者。

Crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano believes Bitcoin holders may have been ahead of the curve again. In an April 12 post on X, Pompliano claimed that Bitcoin investors were the first to identify cracks in the United States’ official economic data and act accordingly.

加密企業家Anthony Pompompommo認為比特幣持有者可能再次領先於曲線。在4月12日關於X的文章中，Pompliano聲稱比特幣投資者是第一個確定美國官方經濟數據並採取相應行動的裂縫的人。

“Bitcoiners were the first large-scale group to recognize the economic data was wrong, and they figured out a way to financially capture upside if they were right,” Pompliano stated.

Pompliano說：“比特幣者是第一個認識到經濟數據錯誤的大型小組，他們找出了一種在財務上佔據上升空間的方法。”

The unspoken secret as to why so many finance folks are wrong in their analysis of the tariffs is because the finance folks believe the government data.

關於為什麼這麼多財務人員在對關稅的分析中是錯誤的，這是因為財務人員認為政府的數據是錯誤的。

He added that mainstream financial analysts trusted inflation readings, jobs reports, GDP measurements, and other critical data points.

他補充說，主流財務分析師相信通貨膨脹率，工作報告，GDP測量值和其他關鍵數據點。

“They will tell you that they don't care about the technical analysis of the markets or the macroeconomic trends. They believe the government statistics and use them to guide their investment decisions.”

“他們會告訴您，他們不在乎市場或宏觀經濟趨勢的技術分析。他們相信政府的統計數據，並利用它們來指導其投資決策。”

However, macroeconomic pressures are increasing due to former President Donald Trump’s reintroduced tariffs, and skepticism is mounting.

但是，由於前總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）重新引入的關稅，宏觀經濟壓力正在增加，並且懷疑不斷。

In a March 20 LinkedIn post, Pompliano also spotlighted a revealing moment during U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s appearance on the All-In podcast. When asked directly whether he trusted the government’s economic data, Bessent answered, “No.”

在3月20日的LinkedIn帖子中，Pompliano在美國財政部長Scott Bessent在全國播客中露面時也聚焦了一個揭示的時刻。當他直接被問及他是否信任政府的經濟數據時，Bessent回答說：“不。”

For Pompliano and many in the crypto community, that was a watershed moment.

對於Pompliano和Crypto社區中的許多人來說，這是一個分水嶺。

“Even the Treasury Secretary has now publicly acknowledged he doesn’t believe the data,” Pompliano wrote. “He says we must listen to the people rather than blindly follow the government data reports.”

Pompliano寫道：“即使是財政部長，現在也公開承認他不相信數據。” “他說，我們必須傾聽人們的意見，而不是盲目遵循政府數據報告。”

Concerns about the accuracy of U.S. economic statistics aren't new. A July 2024 report by the Brookings Institution called for a re-evaluation of how data is collected and presented to ensure it remains trustworthy.

對美國經濟統計數據的準確性的擔憂並不新鮮。布魯金斯機構的2024年7月的報告呼籲重新評估數據的收集和呈現方式，以確保其保持值得信賴。

However, recent events have added urgency to the discussion. For instance, despite widespread predictions of a looming recession, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter of 2024.

但是，最近的事件增加了討論的緊迫性。例如，儘管對迫在眉睫的經濟衰退的廣泛預測，美國經濟在2024年第二季度的年增長率為2.1％。

Bitcoin Shows Strength As Equities Stumble

比特幣表現出強度，股票跌跌撞撞

Furthermore, Bitcoin continues to behave differently than traditional assets in this environment. On April 4, while U.S. equities stumbled amid tariff-related uncertainty, Bitcoin showed unexpected strength.

此外，在這種環境下，比特幣的行為與傳統資產的行為不同。 4月4日，儘管與關稅相關的不確定性，美國股票跌跌撞撞，但比特幣表現出意外的實力。

The price remained steady above $82,000 and climbed to $84,720, despite broader market weakness. Historically, Bitcoin and crypto assets have shown higher volatility during economic stress.

儘管市場疲軟，但價格保持穩定在82,000美元以上，並攀升至84,720美元。從歷史上看，比特幣和加密資產在經濟壓力期間顯示出更高的波動性。

However, the recent resilience could signal a shifting narrative.

但是，最近的彈性可能表明敘事發生了變化。

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes even suggested that Bitcoin may be entering what he calls an "up only mode." He argues that as confidence in traditional financial instruments declines, investors are increasingly turning to decentralized assets like Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.

前Bitmex首席執行官Arthur Hayes甚至建議比特幣進入他所謂的“僅上升模式”。他認為，隨著對傳統金融工具的信心，投資者越來越多地轉向分散資產，例如比特幣作為價值的替代商店。

It’s on like donkey kong. We will be getting more policy response this weekend if this keeps up. We are about to enter UP ONLY mode for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/KL3OSYfiMc

它像金剛。如果這樣做，我們將在本週末獲得更多的政策回應。我們即將以$ btc進入僅輸入模式。 pic.twitter.com/kl3osyfimc

Adding to this sentiment, Bitwise Invest’s Head of Alpha Strategies Jeff Parks stated on April 9 that "there is a higher chance Bitcoin survives over the dollar in our lifetime after today."

除此情緒外，Bitwise Invest的Alpha Strategies負責人Jeff Parks在4月9日表示：“在今天之後我們的一生中，比特幣在我們一生中的一生都有更高的機會。”

His remarks came as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 3.19% over five days, falling to 99.783, according to TradingView.

根據TradingView的數據，他的講話是因為美元指數（DXY）在五天內下降了3.19％，跌至99.783。

This sharp decline contradicts predictions from several Wall Street analysts who believed Trump’s tariffs would strengthen the dollar, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

正如《華爾街日報》報導的那樣，幾位華爾街分析師認為特朗普的關稅將加強美元的預測與這一急劇下降的預測相矛盾。

Pompliano summarized the situation bluntly: "The mainstream finance conversation has become an intellectual boondoggle where most people regurgitate ill-informed takes based on bad data."

Pompliano直言不諱地總結了這種情況：“主流金融對話已成為一個知識分子，大多數人會根據不良數據反省不明智的人。”

As confidence in government-issued economic data wanes even among high-level officials, Bitcoin’s value proposition appears stronger than ever.

隨著對政府發行的經濟數據的信心，即使在高級官員中，比特幣的價值主張似乎比以往任何時候都更強大。

For early adopters and long-time holders, this moment could mark a validation of their strategy: skepticism, decentralization, and betting against a broken system.

對於早期採用者和長期持有人來說，這一刻可以標誌著他們的戰略的驗證：懷疑，權力下放和對破碎的系統的押注。