2024 比特幣減半：稀少性激增，重塑加密貨幣格局

備受期待的比特幣將於 2024 年 4 月減半，這將大幅減少區塊獎勵，加劇稀缺性，並對加密貨幣生態系統產生深遠影響。根據存量與流量比率，比特幣的稀缺性是黃金的兩倍，機構投資者一直在預期供應緊張，而採礦業則因生產成本增加而面臨整合。

Bitcoin Halving 2024: Scarcity to Soar, Reshaping the Crypto Landscape

2024 比特幣減半：稀缺性飆升，重塑加密貨幣格局

The highly anticipated Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 2024, is set to ignite a transformative era of scarcity for the world's preeminent cryptocurrency. With the block reward reduced by half, from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, the fundamental supply dynamics of Bitcoin are poised for a profound shift, carrying far-reaching consequences for investors, miners, and the broader crypto ecosystem.

備受期待的比特幣減半定於 2024 年 4 月舉行，將引發世界傑出加密貨幣稀缺的變革時代。隨著區塊獎勵減少一半，從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC，比特幣的基本供應動態即將發生深刻的轉變，為投資者、礦工和更廣泛的加密生態系統帶來深遠的影響。

Shrinking Supply, Surging Scarcity: Bitcoin's New Reality

供應減少，稀缺性激增：比特幣的新現實

The halving will essentially cut the issuance rate of new Bitcoins in half, significantly altering the supply-demand equation. As a result, the scarcity of Bitcoin will soar, propelling the cryptocurrency into a realm of scarcity that rivals even that of gold.

減半實際上將使新比特幣的發行率減少一半，從而顯著改變供需方程式。結果，比特幣的稀缺性將飆升，將加密貨幣推向甚至可以與黃金相媲美的稀缺領域。

Using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, a metric that compares a commodity's circulating supply to its annual production, we can gauge the extent of Bitcoin's post-halving scarcity. Currently, Bitcoin's S2F ratio hovers around 56, slightly below gold's ratio of 60. However, post-halving, Bitcoin's S2F ratio is projected to double to 112, making it twice as scarce as gold, a universally recognized store of value.

使用庫存流量（S2F）比率（一種將商品的流通供應與其年產量進行比較的指標），我們可以衡量比特幣減半後的稀缺程度。目前，比特幣的S2F比率徘徊在56左右，略低於黃金的60比率。手段黃金的兩倍。

Institutional Positioning: Recognizing the Halving's Potential

機構定位：認識減半的潛力

Institutional investors, with their keen foresight, have swiftly acknowledged the implications of the halving and have strategically positioned themselves accordingly. The Bybit report reveals that institutions have been steadily increasing their Bitcoin allocations since September 2023. As of January 31, 2024, an average of 40% of their total assets were invested in Bitcoin.

具有敏銳遠見的機構投資者迅速認識到減半的影響，並相應地進行了策略定位。 Bybit報告顯示，自2023年9月以來，機構一直在穩定增加比特幣配置。

This surge in institutional interest can be attributed, in part, to the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States, which has made Bitcoin a more accessible and alluring investment option.

機構興趣的激增在一定程度上可以歸因於比特幣現貨ETF在美國的批准，這使得比特幣成為更容易獲得和更具吸引力的投資選擇。

Supply Squeeze Intensifies: Miners Face Challenges

供應緊張加劇：礦商面臨挑戰

As the halving draws near, the supply squeeze is expected to intensify. With mining rewards being slashed in half, marginal miners, those with less efficient equipment and higher operating costs, may struggle to remain profitable. To sustain their operations, they may be compelled to liquidate their Bitcoin reserves.

隨著減半的臨近，供應緊張預計將加劇。隨著挖礦獎勵削減一半，邊緣礦工（那些設備效率較低、營運成本較高的礦工）可能難以維持獲利。為了維持運營，他們可能被迫清算比特幣儲備。

However, as these reserves are depleted, the overall supply of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges is likely to dwindle, further exacerbating the supply crunch.

然而，隨著這些儲備的耗盡，交易所上可供出售的比特幣的整體供應量可能會減少，從而進一步加劇供應緊縮。

Mining Industry Restructuring: Only the Strongest to Survive

礦業重組：只有最強者才能生存

The halving will significantly impact the mining industry, with the cost of producing a single Bitcoin projected to rise to between $28,000 and $42,000. This cost increase could lead to a consolidation in the industry, where only the most efficient miners with advanced rigs and lower costs will be able to survive, especially if the Bitcoin price falls below $40,000.

減半將對採礦業產生重大影響，生產單一比特幣的成本預計將升至 28,000 美元至 42,000 美元之間。這種成本增加可能會導致行業整合，只有擁有先進設備和較低成本的最高效礦商才能生存，特別是如果比特幣價格跌破 40,000 美元。

Investor Behavior: Navigating the Halving's Aftermath

投資者行為：應對減半的後果

Investor behavior is another crucial factor to consider in the context of the halving. If Bitcoin continues to ascend to new all-time highs post-halving, as it has in previous cycles, investors may be lured by the prospect of profit-taking.

投資人行為是減半背景下需要考慮的另一個關鍵因素。如果比特幣在減半後繼續升至歷史新高，就像之前的周期一樣，投資者可能會被獲利回吐的前景所吸引。

However, the Bybit report suggests that the current cycle may deviate from this pattern, as more investors have positioned themselves earlier in anticipation of the halving. This could potentially limit the scope for substantial gains post-halving.

然而，Bybit 報告表明，當前週期可能會偏離這種模式，因為更多投資者在減半預期中提前佈局。這可能會限制減半後大幅收益的範圍。

Volatility and Risk Management: Protecting Positions

波動性和風險管理：保護頭寸

As the halving approaches, market volatility is expected to escalate. Investors should consider employing diverse investment strategies to safeguard their positions, such as utilizing straddles to capitalize on volatility, whether it be upward or downward.

隨著減半臨近，市場波動預計將加劇。投資人應考慮採用多樣化的投資策略來保護自己的頭寸，例如利用跨式組合來利用波動性，無論是向上或向下。

A Transformational Event with far-Reaching Implications

具有深遠影響的變革性事件

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is a landmark event that will indelibly shape the future of the cryptocurrency. With the supply of new Bitcoins being halved, the halving will propel Bitcoin into a realm of heightened scarcity, rivalling that of gold, the time-honored haven asset.

2024 年 4 月的比特幣減半是一個里程碑事件，將不可磨滅地塑造加密貨幣的未來。隨著新比特幣的供應量減半，減半將推動比特幣進入高度稀缺的領域，與歷史悠久的避險資產黃金相媲美。

Institutional investors have astutely recognized the halving's potential and are strategically positioned. As the halving draws near, the supply squeeze will intensify, potentially leading to a consolidation in the mining industry, where only the most efficient miners will endure. Investor behavior and risk management strategies will be crucial in navigating the post-halving landscape.

機構投資者已經敏銳地認識到減半的潛力，並進行了策略定位。隨著減半的臨近，供應緊張將加劇，可能導致採礦業的整合，只有最高效的礦商才能生存。投資人行為和風險管理策略對於駕馭減半後的格局至關重要。

The Bitcoin halving of 2024 is a transformative event with far-reaching consequences for the entire crypto ecosystem. Its impact will be felt by investors, miners, and the broader crypto community alike, ushering in a new era of scarcity that will redefine the role of Bitcoin in the global financial landscape.

2024 年比特幣減半是一個變革性事件，對整個加密生態系統產生深遠影響。投資者、礦工和更廣泛的加密社群都將感受到它的影響，迎來一個稀缺的新時代，這將重新定義比特幣在全球金融格局中的作用。