比特幣減半：四年一度的市場催化劑引發期待

每四年，比特幣社群就會預期比特幣會減半，這是一個以新比特幣產生數量減少為標誌的關鍵事件。從歷史上看，減半與看漲的市場趨勢同時發生，通常會導致價格大幅上漲。

Bitcoin Halving: A Quadrennial Catalyst for Cryptocurrency Market Growth

比特幣減半：加密貨幣市場成長的四年一次催化劑

Every four years, the Bitcoin (BTC) community eagerly anticipates the Bitcoin halving, a pivotal event that has historically exerted a bullish influence on the cryptocurrency market. As the market draws closer to the fourth halving on April 19, let us delve into five captivating facts about this phenomenon that may intrigue even seasoned crypto enthusiasts.

每四年，比特幣（BTC）社群都會熱切期待比特幣減半，這是歷史上對加密貨幣市場產生看漲影響的關鍵事件。隨著市場距離 4 月 19 日第四次減半越來越近，讓我們深入研究有關這一現象的五個迷人事實，即使是經驗豐富的加密貨幣愛好者也可能會感興趣。

1. Astronomical Price Appreciation Following Halvings

1. 減半後價格天文數字升值

Historically, Bitcoin's price has embarked on a surge following each halving, primarily driven by the equilibrium between supply and demand. Post-halving price rallies have been remarkable, as evidenced by historical data. After Bitcoin's inaugural halving on November 28, 2012, its price soared from a mere $11 to a then-record high of $1,240 a year later. Similarly, following the second halving in July 2016, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from around $650 to a new peak of $20,000 in December 2017. The third halving in May 2020 ignited a meteoric price rise from approximately $8,800 to a staggering $69,000 in November 2021. These impressive gains translate to an astounding 650,000% return on investment since the first halving.

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格在每次減半後都會開始飆升，這主要是由供需平衡所推動的。正如歷史數據所證明的那樣，減半後的價格反彈非常顯著。比特幣於 2012 年 11 月 28 日首次減半後，其價格從區區 11 美元飆升至一年後的歷史新高 1,240 美元。同樣，在2016 年7 月第二次減半之後，比特幣的價格從650 美元左右飆升至2017 年12 月的20,000 美元新高。至2021 年11 月的驚人69,000 美元。

2. Testing Miners' Economic Resilience

2. 測試礦工的經濟彈性

Each halving significantly reduces the reward that miners receive for verifying transactions, rendering profitability more challenging, particularly for miners with higher operating expenses. This economic pressure prompts miners to adopt more energy-efficient technologies or cease operations altogether. For instance, after the third Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the average cost to mine one BTC surged, as depicted in the chart below. The escalating operational costs have led to the marginalization of smaller miners, potentially contributing to the centralization of the network.

每次減半都會大大減少礦工驗證交易所獲得的獎勵，使獲利能力更具挑戰性，特別是對於營運費用較高的礦工而言。這種經濟壓力促使礦商採用更節能的技術或完全停止營運。例如，在 2020 年 5 月第三次比特幣減半後，開採 1 個 BTC 的平均成本大幅上升，如下圖所示。不斷上升的營運成本導緻小型礦商被邊緣化，可能導致網路的集中化。

3. Speculation-Driven Pre-Halving Price Rallies

3. 投機驅動的減半前價格上漲

The anticipation of a Bitcoin halving often triggers speculative price increases. For example, in the six months leading up to the 2020 halving, Bitcoin's price climbed by over 40%, surging from around $7,000 in November 2019 to approximately $10,000 by May 2020. These gains are largely attributed to speculative investors seeking to capitalize on the post-halving price appreciation, mirroring historical patterns and contributing to market volatility.

對比特幣減半的預期往往會引發投機性價格上漲。例如，在2020 年減半之前的六個月裡，比特幣的價格上漲了40% 以上，從2019 年11 月的約7,000 美元飆升至2020 年5 月的約10,000 美元。尋求利用減半後的投機投資者-價格升值減半，反映歷史模式並加劇市場波動。

4. Supply Shock and Post-Halving Price Increases

4. 供應衝擊和減半後價格上漲

The theory behind a post-halving price increase centers around the concept of a supply shock. With each of the first three halvings, the daily production of Bitcoin has been halved, from 50 to 25 to 12.5, and most recently in 2020, to 6.25 BTC per block. This reduction can induce significant price movements if demand remains robust. For instance, in the year following the 2016 halving, Bitcoin's price experienced a near 300% surge, partially attributed to this supply shock.

減半後價格上漲背後的理論圍繞著供應衝擊的概念。前三個減半中，比特幣的日產量都減半，從 50 到 25 到 12.5，最近一次是在 2020 年，減半到每個區塊 6.25 BTC。如果需求保持強勁，這種減少可能會導致價格大幅波動。例如，在 2016 年減半後的一年裡，比特幣的價格經歷了近 300% 的飆升，部分原因是因為這種供應衝擊。

5. Macroeconomic Impact on Halving Cycles

5.宏觀經濟對減半週期的影響

The broader economic landscape plays a pivotal role in shaping the impact of Bitcoin halvings on its price. For example, the 2020 halving coincided with a period of expansive monetary policies, including near-zero interest rates in the U.S. This unique situation enhanced Bitcoin's allure as a "digital gold," contributing to its price soar from around $8,000 at the time of the halving in May 2020 to an all-time high of nearly $69,000 by November 2021.

更廣泛的經濟格局在影響比特幣減半對其價格的影響方面發揮關鍵作用。例如，2020 年減半恰逢擴張性貨幣政策時期，包括美國接近零的利率。 。

Conclusion

結論

The Bitcoin halving is a quadrennial event that has historically influenced the cryptocurrency market with profound impact. While the precise outcome of each halving remains uncertain, these five fascinating facts provide a glimpse into the potential forces that may shape the market's trajectory in the lead-up to and following the upcoming halving on April 19. It is imperative to emphasize that this article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations, and any investment or trading decision should be undertaken after thorough due diligence.

比特幣減半是四年一度的事件，歷史上對加密貨幣市場產生了深遠的影響。雖然每次減半的確切結果仍不確定，但這五個令人著迷的事實讓我們得以一睹可能在4 月19 日即將到來的減半之前和之後塑造市場軌蹟的潛在力量。是，本文不構成投資建議或推薦，任何投資或交易決定應在經過徹底的盡職調查後做出。