經濟動盪和市場波動，比特幣減半接近

比特幣第四次減半即將到來，供應減少將使比特幣區塊獎勵從 6.25 削減至 3.125。由於擔心美元可能崩盤，一些分析師預測比特幣價格將大幅上漲，可能達到 180 萬美元，而其他分析師則對短期價格波動持謹慎態度。

Bitcoin Halving Imminent Amidst Economic Turmoil and Price Volatility

經濟動盪與價格波動，比特幣減半迫在眉睫

On the cusp of Bitcoin's fourth halving event, the cryptocurrency market and the broader economic landscape are rife with uncertainty. This supply cut, scheduled to occur within hours, will reduce the block reward for miners by 50%, from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin.

在比特幣第四次減半事件的風口浪尖上，加密貨幣市場和更廣泛的經濟格局充滿了不確定性。此次供應削減計畫在數小時內發生，將使礦工的區塊獎勵減少 50%，從 6.25 比特幣減少到 3.125 比特幣。

The impending halving has sparked intense speculation regarding its potential impact on Bitcoin's price. Some analysts predict a surge to stratospheric levels, while others caution against exuberance. This halving marks a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's history, coming amidst a confluence of factors that have dramatically altered the market dynamics since the previous supply cut in 2020.

即將到來的減半引發了對其對比特幣價格潛在影響的強烈猜測。一些分析師預測，油價將飆升至平流層水平，而另一些分析師則警告不要過度繁榮。這次減半標誌著比特幣歷史上的關鍵時刻，自 2020 年上次供應削減以來，一系列因素極大地改變了市場動態。

Just hours remain before the halving, which will witness a reduction in the daily supply of new Bitcoin from approximately 900 to 450. This supply shock could have significant repercussions for Bitcoin's economic ecosystem.

距離減半只剩下幾個小時了，新比特幣的每日供應量將從大約 900 減少到 450。

Historical Precedents and Price Projections

歷史先例和價格預測

Examining past Bitcoin halvings offers some insight into potential price movements. In the year following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's price soared by over 1,500%. The 2016 halving witnessed a more moderate increase of approximately 180%. However, extrapolating these historical patterns to predict future price behavior is fraught with uncertainty.

檢查過去的比特幣減半可以為潛在的價格變動提供一些見解。 2012 年減半後的一年裡，比特幣的價格飆升了 1,500% 以上。 2016 年減半的增幅較為溫和，約 180%。然而，推論這些歷史模式來預測未來的價格行為充滿了不確定性。

Noelle Acheson, a renowned Bitcoin analyst, suggests that Bitcoin could potentially climb to $450,000 in one year, using the previous cycle as a reference point. Alternatively, the price could reach $1.8 million if the market follows a trajectory similar to the 2016 halving. Such valuations would result in Bitcoin achieving a market capitalization of $35 trillion.

著名比特幣分析師諾埃爾艾奇遜 (Noelle Acheson) 表示，以上一個週期為參考點，比特幣可能在一年內攀升至 45 萬美元。或者，如果市場遵循類似 2016 年減半的軌跡，價格可能會達到 180 萬美元。這樣的估值將使比特幣的市值達到 35 兆美元。

Market Dynamics and Long-Term Impact

市場動態和長期影響

Duncan Ash, Head of Strategy at Coincover, believes that the halving will temporarily disrupt the supply-demand balance, driving the market price higher. However, this upward pressure will eventually subside as the elevated price discourages new investors, thereby restoring equilibrium. In the mid to long term, the industry is poised for expansion, boasting a larger user base, enhanced market capitalization, and increased liquidity.

Coincover策略主管Duncan Ash認為，減半將暫時擾亂供需平衡，推動市場價格走高。然而，隨著價格上漲使新投資者望而卻步，這種上行壓力最終將消退，從而恢復平衡。從中長期來看，該產業將迎來擴張，用戶基礎擴大，市值增加，流動性增加。

Economic Factors and the Role of Wall Street

經濟因素與華爾街的作用

This halving occurs during a period of elevated inflation and interest rates. Jeff Hancock, CEO of Coinpass, underscores the evolution of the Bitcoin market, which has transitioned from a niche hobby to a legitimate asset class attracting institutional interest. The advent of numerous Wall Street spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) further solidifies the presence of institutional capital in this space.

這種減半發生在通貨膨脹和利率上升的時期。 Coinpass 執行長 Jeff Hancock）強調了比特幣市場的演變，比特幣市場已經從一種小眾愛好轉變為吸引機構興趣的合法資產類別。許多華爾街現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的出現進一步鞏固了機構資本在這一領域的存在。

Consensus Elusive, Historical Trends Provide Guidance

共識難以捉摸，歷史趨勢提供指導

Despite intense speculation, a consensus on the halving's impact remains elusive. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs analysts have issued divergent warnings about potential price declines in the immediate aftermath of the supply cut.

儘管有激烈的猜測，但關於減半影響的共識仍然難以達成。摩根大通和高盛分析師對供應削減後可能出現的價格下跌發出了不同的警告。

Historically, Bitcoin's price has exhibited upward trajectories in the months following previous halvings. However, Andrew O'Neill of S&P Global expresses skepticism regarding the validity of historical analogies for price predictions.

從歷史上看，比特幣的價格在先前減半後的幾個月內一直呈現上漲軌跡。然而，標準普爾全球公司的安德魯·奧尼爾對價格預測的歷史類比的有效性表示懷疑。

Bitcoin's halvings will continue every four years until approximately 2140. Once the network ceases to produce new Bitcoins, miners will solely rely on transaction fees for compensation, prompting them to explore alternative revenue streams such as ordinals, runes, and BRC-20 protocols that have already contributed to increased transaction fees.

比特幣的減半將每四年持續一次，直到大約2140 年。 20 協議，這些協議已經導致交易費用增加。

Conclusion

結論

Bitcoin's upcoming halving looms large over the cryptocurrency market amidst economic uncertainty and heightened volatility. While historical precedents offer some guidance on potential price movements, the unique circumstances surrounding this halving warrant caution in making definitive predictions. Only time will tell how this supply cut will shape the trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.

在經濟不確定性和波動加劇的情況下，比特幣即將減半在加密貨幣市場上特別突出。雖然歷史先例為潛在的價格走勢提供了一些指導，但圍繞減半的獨特情況需要謹慎做出明確的預測。只有時間才能證明這次供應削減將如何塑造比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣格局的軌跡。