比特幣減半迫在眉睫：歷史性的飆升與市場震盪的預期

2024 年初，在監管機構批准、比特幣 ETF 和市場對風險資產的胃口的推動下，比特幣 (BTC) 的價值飆升至 70,000 美元以上的歷史新高。比特幣減半是比特幣歷史上的關鍵事件，大約每四年發生一次，降低了新比特幣的生產速度。從歷史上看，由於供應減少和稀缺性增加，減半導致價格大幅上漲，2012年、2016年和2020年的減半證明了這一點。

Bitcoin Halving: A Catalyst for Historical Surges and Anticipated Market Impact

比特幣減半：歷史飆升和預期市場影響的催化劑

Following its remarkable ascent in early 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) stands poised at an inflection point as the highly anticipated fourth halving event draws near. This transformative process, scheduled for April 2024, has historically served as a pivotal catalyst for significant price rallies in the cryptocurrency market.

繼 2024 年初的顯著上漲之後，隨著備受期待的第四次減半事件的臨近，比特幣 (BTC) 正處於一個拐點。這個變革過程定於 2024 年 4 月進行，歷來都是加密貨幣市場價格大幅上漲的關鍵催化劑。

Understanding Bitcoin Halving

了解比特幣減半

At its core, Bitcoin halving refers to the systematic reduction in the issuance rate of new bitcoins. This fundamental aspect of Bitcoin's design is implemented approximately every four years and plays a crucial role in maintaining the scarcity and long-term value of the cryptocurrency.

比特幣減半的核心是指系統性降低新比特幣的發行率。比特幣設計的這一基本面向大約每四年實施一次，在維持加密貨幣的稀缺性和長期價值方面發揮著至關重要的作用。

During Bitcoin's mining process, individuals and companies known as "miners" use specialized computers to verify and add new blocks to the blockchain, the decentralized ledger that underpins Bitcoin's operation. In return for their services, miners are rewarded with newly minted bitcoins. However, this issuance rate undergoes a halving approximately every four years, progressively reducing the supply of new bitcoins entering the market.

在比特幣的挖礦過程中，被稱為「礦工」的個人和公司使用專用計算機來驗證並向區塊鏈添加新區塊，區塊鏈是支撐比特幣運行的去中心化帳本。作為他們服務的回報，礦工將獲得新鑄造的比特幣作為獎勵。然而，這項發行率大約每四年減半，逐漸減少進入市場的新比特幣供應。

Historical Significance of Bitcoin Halvings

比特幣減半的歷史意義

Past Bitcoin halving events have left an indelible mark on the cryptocurrency's trajectory. Following the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin's price surged from around $12 to over $900 within a year. Similarly, after the second halving in 2016, the price soared from approximately $600 to $2,500 within a year. The third halving in May 2020 witnessed a surge from $8,000 to over $40,000 within a year.

過去的比特幣減半事件在加密貨幣的發展軌跡上留下了不可磨滅的印記。 2012 年第一次減半後，比特幣的價格在一年內從 12 美元左右飆升至 900 美元以上。同樣，2016年第二次減半後，價格在一年內從約600美元飆升至2500美元。 2020 年 5 月的第三次減半見證了一年內從 8,000 美元飆升至 40,000 美元以上。

Anticipated Impact of the Upcoming Halving

即將到來的減半的預期影響

The upcoming halving event is widely anticipated to follow a similar pattern of price appreciation. Two primary factors contribute to this expected surge:

人們普遍預期即將到來的減半事件將遵循類似的價格升值模式。造成這種預期激增的兩個主要因素：

• Supply Reduction: By diminishing the issuance rate of new bitcoins, the halving reduces the overall supply entering the market. This reduction, coupled with the increasing demand for Bitcoin, is likely to create an imbalance that favors price increases.
• Increased Scarcity: As the total supply of Bitcoin becomes scarcer, its perceived value tends to increase. This perception of scarcity, coupled with the historical precedent set by previous halvings, fuels a positive sentiment in the market, leading to higher prices.

Should Investors Consider Buying Bitcoin Before Halving?

供應減少：透過減少新比特幣的發行率，減半減少了進入市場的總供應量。這種減少，加上對比特幣的需求不斷增加，可能會造成有利於價格上漲的不平衡。稀缺性增加： 隨著比特幣總供應量變得稀缺，其感知價值往往會增加。這種稀缺感，加上先前減半開創的歷史先例，激發了市場的正面情緒，導致價格上漲。投資者應該在減半之前考慮購買比特幣嗎？

While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the historical correlation between Bitcoin halvings and price surges provides compelling evidence for potential investors. However, it is essential to recognize that other factors, such as regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and technological advancements, can also influence Bitcoin's price.

雖然過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，但比特幣減半和價格飆升之間的歷史相關性為潛在投資者提供了令人信服的證據。然而，必須認識到，監管發展、宏觀經濟條件和技術進步等其他因素也會影響比特幣的價格。

As investors eagerly await the fourth Bitcoin halving in April 2024, it is prudent to approach any investment decisions with a comprehensive understanding of the risks and potential rewards involved. Nevertheless, the halving event stands as a significant milestone in the evolution of Bitcoin, with the potential to reshape its market dynamics and influence investor sentiment.

由於投資者熱切等待 2024 年 4 月第四次比特幣減半，因此在全面了解所涉及的風險和潛在回報的情況下做出任何投資決策都是謹慎的。儘管如此，減半事件仍然是比特幣發展過程中的重要里程碑，有可能重塑其市場動態並影響投資者情緒。