比特幣融資利率創歷史新高，顯示謹慎樂觀

儘管最近出現波動，但比特幣融資利率仍處於歷史高位，這表明對潛在反彈持謹慎態度。儘管出現獲利了結和拋售，比特幣價格的跌幅仍限制在 20% 左右。分析師預計，在可能上漲至 10 萬美元之前，將出現進一步修正，其中 6.55 萬美元的支撐至關重要。

Bitcoin Funding Rates Soar to Record Highs, Signaling Caution

比特幣融資利率飆升至歷史新高，發出謹慎訊號

Amidst the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has drawn significant attention, witnessing a sharp correction of over 10% from its all-time high of $73,500, plunging to $65,500 before partially recovering to $67,000. However, analysts warn that the downtrend may not have run its course yet.

在近期加密貨幣市場的波動中，比特幣（BTC）引起了廣泛關注，從歷史高點 73,500 美元大幅回調超過 10%，暴跌至 65,500 美元，然後部分回升至 67,000 美元。然而，分析師警告稱，下降趨勢可能尚未結束。

Record-High Funding Rates: A Cautionary Tale

創紀錄的高融資率：一個警世故事

A key metric, Bitcoin's funding rates, has reached record highs, a level last observed during the bullish run of April 2021. Funding rates reflect the sentiment in the perpetual swaps market, with positive rates indicating an abundance of long-position traders willing to pay funding to short traders.

比特幣的融資利率這一關鍵指標已達到歷史新高，這是在2021 年4 月的牛市期間最後一次觀察到的水平。融資利率反映了永續掉期市場的情緒，正利率表明大量多頭交易者願意支付為空頭交易者提供資金。

This phenomenon often suggests that the market is overleveraged, creating a potential risk of a sharp correction. In the previous instance when funding rates reached such elevated levels in April 2021, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic collapse from over $60,000 to below $30,000 within a mere three months.

這種現象往往顯示市場槓桿率過高，有大幅回調的潛在風險。上一次融資利率在 2021 年 4 月達到如此高的水平時，比特幣在短短三個月內就從 6 萬美元以上急劇暴跌至 3 萬美元以下。

Market Manipulation and Profit-Taking

市場操縱和獲利了結

Further analysis reveals that widespread profit-taking and reactionary selling have been prevalent in the market. However, despite these sell-offs, Bitcoin's price drawdowns have remained remarkably low, barely exceeding 20%. This observation suggests that buyers have been actively absorbing the selling pressure, preventing a more significant decline.

進一步分析顯示，市場普遍存在獲利回吐和反動拋售。然而，儘管出現了這些拋售，比特幣的價格跌幅仍然非常低，僅超過 20%。這項觀察結果表明，買家一直在積極吸收拋售壓力，防止更大幅度的下跌。

Analysts Bullish Post Halving Event

分析師看好減半事件

Despite the current headwinds and short-term selling pressure, analysts remain bullish about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, particularly in the wake of the anticipated halving event. Historically, halving events, where the block reward for mining Bitcoin is halved, have marked significant milestones for price appreciation.

儘管目前存在逆風和短期拋售壓力，但分析師仍然看好比特幣的長期前景，特別是在預期的減半事件之後。從歷史上看，減半事件（即開採比特幣的區塊獎勵減半）標誌著價格升值的重要里程碑。

Technical Analysis Forecasts: $100,000 and Beyond

技術分析預測：100,000 美元及以上

Technical analysts have drawn a channel from the recent low to the high, which aligns almost perfectly with a price target of $100,000. They argue that selling acts as a bullish catalyst, especially during periods of fear and doubt. Furthermore, linear and log targets for the completion of wave 3 are identified at $90,000 and $115,000, respectively.

技術分析師繪製了從近期低點到高點的通道，該通道與 100,000 美元的目標價幾乎完美吻合。他們認為，拋售是看漲催化劑，尤其是在恐懼和懷疑時期。此外，完成第三波的線性和對數目標分別確定為 90,000 美元和 115,000 美元。

Market Sentiment and Whale Activity

市場情緒和鯨魚活動

Market sentiment remains cautious, as evidenced by the high funding rates. However, on-chain analysis indicates that Bitcoin buyers have been strongly absorbing the selling pressure, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. Additionally, the support level at $65,500 is being closely monitored as a potential catalyst for a bullish breakout.

市場情緒依然謹慎，融資利率高就證明了這一點。然而，鏈上分析表明，比特幣買家一直在大力吸收拋售壓力，這表明市場動態可能會改變。此外，65,500 美元的支撐位正受到密切關注，作為看漲突破的潛在催化劑。

Inflows Slow but Net Positive

資金流入緩慢但淨額為正

While net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain positive, daily inflows have declined significantly in recent weeks. This slowdown could contribute to the current sideways movement in Bitcoin's price, but analysts believe that it will not hinder the long-term uptrend.

儘管現貨比特幣 ETF 的淨流入量仍為正值，但最近幾週每日流入量大幅下降。這種放緩可能會導致比特幣價格目前的橫盤走勢，但分析師認為，這不會阻礙長期上漲趨勢。

Conclusion: Caution and Optimism

結論：謹慎和樂觀

The current volatility in the Bitcoin market warrants caution, particularly given the record-high funding rates. However, the resilience of Bitcoin's price despite widespread selling and the bullish sentiment among analysts regarding the post-halving environment suggest that the long-term trend remains positive. Investors should proceed with caution in the short term while maintaining a strategic focus on the long-term potential of Bitcoin.

當前比特幣市場的波動值得謹慎對待，特別是考慮到創紀錄的高融資利率。然而，儘管出現廣泛拋售，但比特幣價格的彈性以及分析師對減半後環境的看漲情緒表明，長期趨勢仍然積極。投資者應在短期內謹慎行事，同時保持對比特幣長期潛力的策略關注。