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與普遍的看漲情緒相反,比特幣在 10 月開始出現看跌情緒,該月前三天價格下跌超過 7%。
Bitcoin began October on a bearish note, recording a price decline of over 7% in the first three days of the month. But while the BTC market experienced an uptick on Friday as data from the US Labor Department signaled incoming rate cuts, investors have generally retained a cautionary approach.
比特幣從 10 月開始就處於看跌狀態,該月前三天價格下跌超過 7%。儘管由於美國勞工部的數據顯示即將降息,比特幣市場週五出現上漲,但投資者普遍保持謹慎態度。
Bitcoin price began the new month of October on a bearish note, showing signs of struggle to maintain the bullish momentum that saw the asset hit new all-time highs (ATH) in September. At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is up 2.17% over the past 24 hours, trading at $62,071.
比特幣價格在 10 月的新月份開始時就處於看跌狀態,顯示出難以維持看漲勢頭的跡象,該資產在 9 月創下了歷史新高 (ATH)。截至撰寫本文時,比特幣價格在過去 24 小時內上漲 2.17%,交易價格為 62,071 美元。
However, over the past three days of the month, BTC price has recorded a loss of 7.16%. This decline comes as the asset hit a new local top on September 28, failing to break past the $63,000 resistance level.
然而,本月過去三天,BTC 價格卻錄得 7.16% 的下跌。此次下跌之際,該資產於 9 月 28 日觸及新的局部頂部,但未能突破 63,000 美元的阻力位。
Now, as Bitcoin price experiences a slight recovery following the bearish sentiments at the start of the month,鏈接至外部站点。 Chain analysis platform CryptoQuant has revealed some interesting trends. According to the platform’s data, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, which measures investor sentiments, now signals ‘Fear.’
現在,隨著比特幣價格在月初的看跌情緒之後出現小幅回升,連結至外部站點。根據該平台的數據,衡量投資者情緒的比特幣恐懼和貪婪指數現在發出「恐懼」訊號。
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index signals ‘Fear’ following recent price slump
近期價格暴跌後,比特幣恐懼和貪婪指數發出「恐懼」訊號
The Fear and Greed Index generally measures the emotions, moods, and behaviors of the crypto market as well as predicts potential trends based on investor sentiment. The index operates on a 0-100 scale, where values above 50 indicate greed, with anything over 74 representing extreme greed, while values below 50 signal fear, and under 24, extreme fear.
恐懼和貪婪指數通常衡量加密貨幣市場的情緒、情緒和行為,並根據投資者情緒預測潛在趨勢。該指數的範圍為 0-100,其中數值高於 50 表示貪婪,超過 74 表示極度貪婪,而數值低於 50 表示恐懼,低於 24 表示極度恐懼。
According to maartunn, an analyst on CryptoQuant, the Fear and Greed Index is currently at 37, indicating that many investors are cautious about adding the leading cryptocurrency to their portfolio. In particular, the analyst notes that each time the Fear and Greed Index reached the fear level since 2023, Bitcoin’s price has formed a bottom, i.e. reached the lowest point during a price decline, and is set for price reversal.
CryptoQuant 分析師 maartunn 表示,恐懼和貪婪指數目前為 37,顯示許多投資者對將領先的加密貨幣添加到投資組合中持謹慎態度。該分析師特別指出,自2023年以來,每當恐懼和貪婪指數達到恐懼水平時,比特幣的價格就已經形成底部,即達到價格下跌期間的最低點,並為價格反轉做好準備。
Bitcoin price might have already bottomed out as it begins to form a recovery from the fear level, which could see the asset rally to new highs before the end of the year. However, it cannot be said that the price bottom has now occurred as Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the asset is still far above its next significant support level following months of consolidation between $55,000 – 70,000.
比特幣價格可能已經觸底,因為它開始從恐懼水平復甦,這可能會導致資產在年底前反彈至新高。然而,不能說價格已經觸底,因為比特幣日線圖顯示,在 55,000 美元至 70,000 美元之間盤整數月之後,該資產仍遠高於其下一個重要支撐位。
Bitcoin price is now facing resistance at the $63,000 level, which has caused the asset to begin forming lower highs on the daily chart. If BTC price fails to break past this resistance level soon, it could begin forming a double top pattern, which will invalidate any bullish expectations for the month.
比特幣價格目前面臨 63,000 美元水平的阻力,這導致資產開始在日線圖上形成較低的高點。如果比特幣價格未能很快突破這一阻力位,它可能會開始形成雙頂模式,這將使本月的任何看漲預期失效。
Stablecoin activity supports fear, uncertainty among investors
穩定幣活動加劇了投資者的恐懼和不確定性
In addition to the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index of 37, the crypto market has also experienced an increase in the market activity of stablecoins namely the Tether USD (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). This development indicates that investors are opting for less volatile assets than risky coins such as Bitcoin, which is often due to uncertainty and fear of impending price crash.
除了比特幣恐懼和貪婪指數為 37 之外,加密貨幣市場的穩定幣 Tether USD (USDT) 和 USD Coin (USDC) 的市場活動也有所增加。這一發展表明,與比特幣等高風險代幣相比,投資者選擇波動性較小的資產,這通常是由於不確定性和對即將到來的價格崩盤的擔憂。
A CryptoQuant analyst known as BaroVirtual has attributed this fear to several factors including weak retail market participation, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as the SEC’s hesitation to launch a Spot Ethereum ETF Options. At the same time, another analyst has noted that the options market is also showing signs of fear among traders.
一位名為 BaroVirtual 的 CryptoQuant 分析師將這種擔憂歸因於多種因素,包括零售市場參與度疲軟、中東地緣政治緊張局勢加劇,以及 SEC 對推出現貨以太坊 ETF 選擇權猶豫不決。同時,另一位分析師指出,選擇權市場也顯示出交易者的恐懼跡象。
According to the analyst, the options Put/Call Open Interest Ratio, which measures the total amount of bearish (Put) options relative to bullish (Call) options, has shown a bullish bias throughout the recent bull market. But now, as Bitcoin price hit new highs and began to consolidate, the Put/Call OI Ratio has shown a bearish bias.
這位分析師表示,期權看跌/看漲未平倉利率衡量的是看跌(看跌)期權相對於看漲(看漲)期權的總量,在最近的牛市中表現出看漲傾向。但現在,隨著比特幣價格創下新高並開始盤整,看跌/買權持股比率已顯示出看跌傾向。
This development suggests that options traders are now expecting a price bottom to occur soon, which will see the asset begin to rally to new highs before the end of the year. However, if the options market continues to show bearish sentiments, it could indicate that the recent bullish momentum may fizzle out soon.
這一事態發展表明,期權交易者現在預計價格很快就會觸底,這將使該資產在年底前開始反彈至新高。然而,如果期權市場繼續表現出看跌情緒,則可能表明近期的看漲勢頭可能很快就會消失。
At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to exchange hands at 62,071 following a 2.17% gain in the last day. Meanwhile, the token’s daily trading volume is down 17.91% and valued at $29.71 billion.
截至撰寫本文時,比特幣繼續以 62,071 換手,在最後一天上漲 2.17% 後。同時,該代幣的每日交易量下降了 17.91%,價值 297.1 億美元。
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