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比特幣 [BTC] 最近從 10.8 萬美元調整至 9.25 萬美元,目前交易價格為 9.8 萬美元。這使得比特幣的恐懼和貪婪價值降至中性
Bitcoin [BTC] began the week in a consolidation phase after dropping to lows of $92.5k on the 22nd of December. The recent sell-off saw the cryptocurrency lose support at $108k, and traders were left wondering whether BTC would attempt another push toward the all-time highs.
比特幣 [BTC] 在 12 月 22 日跌至 9.25 萬美元的低點後,本週開始進入盤整階段。最近的拋售導致加密貨幣失去了 10.8 萬美元的支撐,交易員想知道 BTC 是否會嘗試再次推向歷史高點。
The sell-off also saw the Bitcoin Fear and Greed value drop to neutral levels after being in the extremes of ‘Extreme Fear’ and ‘Extreme Greed’ over the past few weeks. At press time, the F&G value stood at 56.
在過去幾週處於「極度恐懼」和「極度貪婪」的極端狀態之後,這次拋售也導致比特幣的恐懼和貪婪價值跌至中性水平。截至發稿時,F&G 值為 56。
Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index drops from ‘Extreme Greed’ to ‘Neutral’
比特幣恐懼和貪婪指數從“極度貪婪”降至“中性”
After spending a majority of November in the ‘Extreme Fear’ zone, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index rose sharply. By the 11th of November, the F&G value reached ‘Extreme Greed,’ where it remained for almost a month. During this period, BTC rose by 24.6%.
在 11 月的大部分時間都處於「極度恐懼」區域後,比特幣恐懼和貪婪指數大幅上漲。到11月11日,F&G值達到“極度貪婪”,並保持了近一個月。在此期間,BTC上漲了24.6%。
However, the bullish sentiment began to drop on the 12th of December, reaching ‘Neutral’ levels by the 23rd. This signaled a shift in the market sentiment, which could be attributed to the recent sell-off.
然而,看漲情緒從 12 月 12 日開始下降,到 23 日達到「中性」水準。這標誌著市場情緒的轉變,這可能歸因於最近的拋售。
As a rule of thumb, buying when the sentiment is fearful and selling when it is greedy is generally advised. But during strong trends, like the one we saw over the past month, greedy readings can be accompanied by strong market-wide gains.
根據經驗,通常建議在市場情緒恐懼時買入,在市場貪婪時賣出。但在強勁趨勢期間,就像我們在過去一個月看到的那樣,貪婪的讀數可能會伴隨著整個市場的強勁上漲。
Open Interest dropped sharply as speculators hesitated to go long
由於投機者猶豫是否做多,未平倉合約急劇下降
One of the other key metrics used to gauge the Bitcoin Fear and Greed sentiment is the Open Interest. According to Coinglass, BTC OI dropped from $68.13 billion to $60.21 billion in the past nine days.
用於衡量比特幣恐懼和貪婪情緒的其他關鍵指標之一是未平倉合約。根據 Coinglass 的數據,過去 9 天,BTC OI 從 681.3 億美元下降至 602.1 億美元。
This massive drop in OI signaled that speculators were hesitant to go long on BTC futures. It also highlighted a lack of enthusiasm among futures market participants bullish on Bitcoin.
OI 的大幅下降表明投機者對於做多 BTC 期貨猶豫不決。這也凸顯了期貨市場參與者對比特幣看漲缺乏熱情。
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Bitcoin’s mean coin age reverses after a two-month downtrend
比特幣的平均幣齡在經歷兩個月的下降趨勢後出現逆轉
While the sentiment across the market cooled down, there were some positives for BTC. One of the key accumulation metrics- mean coin age, had been trending down from late September to mid-December.
儘管整個市場情緒降溫,但比特幣也出現了一些正面因素。關鍵的累積指標之一——平均幣齡,從 9 月底到 12 月中旬一直呈下降趨勢。
However, this trend began to reverse over the past ten days, signaling accumulation, which was a strong bullish sign. It showed that older coins were being held onto.
然而,這種趨勢在過去十天開始逆轉,發出吸籌訊號,這是一個強烈的看漲訊號。這表示較舊的硬幣被保留。
The 90-day MVRV ratio was at 9.46%, showing that on average, holders within this time window were at a decent profit. Despite being in the green, the 90-day MVRP ratio has been trending downward for nearly six weeks.
90天MVRV比率為9.46%,顯示平均而言,該時間窗口內的持有者獲得了可觀的利潤。儘管呈綠色,但 90 天 MVRP 比率在近六週內一直呈下降趨勢。
This highlighted that selling pressure from short to medium-term holders’ profit-taking would likely have a minimal impact in the coming days. Together, these clues signaled that Bitcoin was gearing up for another push.
這凸顯出短期至中期持有者獲利了結帶來的拋售壓力可能在未來幾天產生的影響很小。這些線索共同表明,比特幣正在為另一次推動做好準備。
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