比特幣優勢達到4年，引發了有關替代幣恢復的問題

比特幣在加密市場上的優勢已經達到了將近四年的水平。受歡迎的交易員和分析師Rekt Capital警告說，Altcoins正在掙扎

Bitcoin’s dominance over the crypto market has reached levels not seen in nearly four years. Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital has warned that altcoins are struggling to hold ground, with BTC’s market cap dominance reaching a recent peak of 64.3% before settling around 61%.

比特幣對加密市場的統治地位已達到近四年來未見的水平。受歡迎的交易員和分析師Rekt Capital警告說，Altcoins正在努力保持地面，而BTC的市值統治地位最近達到了64.3％，直到61％左右。

As BTC’s price remained relatively strong despite broader economic uncertainty, investors began questioning whether altcoins would soon recover. However, Rekt Capital believes that the bottom for Bitcoin dominance was already established in early December when it dipped below 55%.

儘管經濟不確定性更廣泛，但BTC的價格仍然相對較高，投資者開始質疑Altcoins是否會很快恢復。但是，Rekt Capital認為，比特幣優勢的底部已經在12月初降至55％以下。

“That was the Bitcoin Dominance bottom, effectively confirming an end to the mini Altcoin Season we saw at the end of 2024 BTC,” he stated. Since then, BTC’s dominance has surged by 6%, making it difficult for altcoins to regain momentum.

他說：“那是比特幣的主導地位，有效地證實了我們在2024年BTC末看到的迷你山寨幣季節的結束。”從那時起，BTC的主導地位飆升了6％，這使得Altcoins難以恢復動力。

Bitcoin market cap dominance | Source: Rekt Capital

比特幣市值優勢|資料來源：Rekt Capital

A Long Road for Altcoins’ Comeback

Altcoins捲土重來的漫長道路

While some traders hope for a quick recovery, Rekt Capital argues that a true alt season will only return once Bitcoin’s dominance climbs another 16% from its current level. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin dominance will need to reach 71% before altcoins can start to flourish again.

雖然一些交易者希望能夠快速恢復，但Rekt Capital認為，一旦比特幣的統治地位從目前的水平降低了16％。如果歷史重演，則比特幣優勢將需要達到71％，然後山寨幣才能再次蓬勃發展。

“If history repeats, the real Altseason everybody is waiting for would begin once Bitcoin Dominance rejects from 71% (red),” he explained.

他解釋說：“如果歷史重演，一旦比特幣優勢從71％（紅色）拒絕，那麼每個人都在等待的真實季節將開始。”

Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-month chart | Source: Rekt Capital

比特幣市值統治1個月|資料來源：Rekt Capital

Not everyone shares this view. The trader Titan of Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin dominance at 64%, was “highly bearish” for the market. He noted the appearance of a Gravestone Doji pattern on the dominance chart, a rare formation that could indicate a potential shift in favor of altcoins.

並非每個人都分享這種觀點。加密貨幣的商人泰坦（Titan）指出，比特幣優勢為64％，對市場來說是“極不看的”。他指出，在優勢圖上出現了墓碑DOJI模式，這是一種罕見的地層，可能表明潛在的轉變，有利於山寨幣。

Meanwhile, Stockmoney Lizards, a trading resource, suggests that BTC’s growing dominance is due to a mix of factors. These include post-halving enthusiasm, ETF-driven demand, and even political influence, such as Donald Trump’s proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve.

同時，貿易資源的斯托克尼蜥蜴表明，BTC的統治地位越來越多，這是由於多種因素所致。其中包括備受期間的熱情，ETF驅動的需求，甚至是政治影響力，例如唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）提議的戰略比特幣保護區。

“There are several factors contributing to the heavy underperformance of Altcoins vs. Bitcoin. First, we are still in the post-halving Bitcoin Euphoria phase. This is fueled by ETF buying, as well as Trump’s plans of a strategic Bitcoin reserve,” the firm stated in a post on February 5.

“有幾個因素導致Altcoins與比特幣的表現不佳。首先，我們仍處於備用後的比特幣欣快階段。該公司在2月5日的帖子中說：“ ETF的購買以及特朗普的戰略比特幣儲備計劃所推動。”

Another key factor holding altcoins back is the continued weakness of Ethereum. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been stuck in a multiyear downtrend against Bitcoin, further strengthening BTC’s overall dominance in the market.

阻止山寨幣的另一個關鍵因素是以太坊的持續弱點。第二大加密貨幣已陷入對比特幣的多年下降趨勢中，進一步加強了BTC在市場上的總體優勢。

Historical Patterns Hint at Rally

歷史模式暗示集會

Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, the well-known analyst Cryptowzrd suggests that altcoin season might be on the horizon, potentially kicking off as early as March 2025. His shared chart published on February 3 highlighted a recurring historical pattern in the OTHERS/BTC ratio, revealing similarities with past altcoin bull runs.

儘管有盛行的看跌情緒，但這位著名的分析師Cryptowzrd表明，Altcoin季節可能即將到來，可能早在2025年3月就開始了。他的共享圖表於2月3日出版，突出了其他/BTC比率的經常性歷史模式（揭示了與過去的Altcoin Bull的相似之處。

OTHERS/BTC 1-month chart | Source: Cryptowzrd

其他/BTC 1個月表|資料來源：Cryptowzrd

Cryptowzrd stressed the significance of the Higher Low Trendline, recently retested. He noted that previous breakouts from this level sparked major altcoin rallies. In February 2017, a retest of this trendline preceded a strong altcoin rally starting in March. A similar pattern occurred in January 2021, leading to another surge across the altcoin market.

Cryptowzrd強調了最近重新測試的較高低趨勢線的重要性。他指出，以前從這個級別的突破引發了大型Altcoin集會。 2017年2月，該趨勢線的重新測試是在3月開始的強大山寨幣集會之前。類似的模式發生在2021年1月，導致山寨幣市場的另一場激增。

Now, in February 2025, the OTHERS/BTC ratio has once again bounced off this critical level, potentially laying the groundwork for another altcoin rally. Adding depth to his analysis, Cryptowzrd incorporates Elliott Wave Theory, completing a corrective wave (1-5) that signals a potential upward move.

現在，在2025年2月，其他/BTC的比率再次脫離了這一臨界水平，有可能為另一個Altcoin Rally奠定了基礎。加密植物加入了他的分析深度，結合了埃利奧特波理論，完成了一個糾正波（1-5），該波（1-5）信號是潛在的向上移動。

If you’re wondering what crypto to buy now, Bitcoin looks like a safer bet while its dominance is rising. When it eventually peaks, that’s the optimal time to buy alt coins.

如果您想知道現在要購買什麼加密貨幣，那麼比特幣看起來像是更安全的賭注，而其優勢正在上升。當它最終達到頂峰時，這是購買ALT硬幣的最佳時間。