加密貨幣市場領導者比特幣短暫超過92700美元，在星期二將低點的回收率延長了約81500美元

在過去的48小時中，傳統和加密市場都穩定下來，但關鍵波動指數仍然升高，呼籲對希望穩定行動的公牛謹慎行事。

Both traditional and crypto markets have stabilized in the past 48 hours, but key volatility indices remain elevated, calling for caution for bulls who are expecting a steady move higher.

在過去的48小時中，傳統和加密市場都穩定下來，但關鍵波動指數仍然升高，呼籲對希望穩定行動的公牛謹慎行事。

Bitcoin, the crypto market leader, briefly topped $92,700, extending the recovery from lows around $81,500 on Tuesday. MOVE, CRO, ONDO and Render traded 10% to 17% higher as of writing. Broadly speaking, AI, gaming and Layer 2 coins are the best-performing crypto sub-sectors for the past 24 hours.

加密市場領導者比特幣短暫超過92,700美元，在周二從低點延長了約81,500美元的回收率。隨著寫作，Move，Cro，Ondo和渲染量提高了10％至17％。從廣義上講，AI，遊戲和第2層硬幣是過去24小時表現最佳的加密子扇區。

The positive move could be attributed to rumors that President Donald Trump will unveil a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve during Friday’s White House crypto summit. Meanwhile, hopes that Trump's tariffs will likely not endure have helped restore the risk sentiment on Wall Street and Germany and China's fiscal rockets have offered support to Asian and European equities.

積極的舉動可能歸因於謠言說，唐納德·特朗普總統將在周五的白宮加密省會期間推出美國戰略比特幣儲備。同時，希望特朗普的關稅可能不會忍受，這有助於恢復華爾街的風險情緒，德國和中國的財政火箭對亞洲和歐洲的股票提供了支持。

Still, we haven't seen a notable decline in the volatility indices. At press time, Volmex's BVIV index, which measures the implied or expected 30-day price turbulence, held just five points below Tuesday's high of 66% but well above the February low of 49.6%. Perhaps traders see Friday's crypto summit as the make-or-break moment for crypto, as the President, having promised big for months, is now expected to deliver the goods as soon as possible.

不過，我們還沒有看到波動指數的顯著下降。發稿時，Volmex的BVIV指數衡量了隱含或預期的30天價格動盪，僅比周二高66％的高點持有5分，但遠高於2月份的49.6％。也許交易者將周五的加密峰會視為加密貨幣的製造時刻，因為總統承諾要付出幾個月的時間，現在有望盡快交付貨物。

In traditional markets, VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, held at 23.65 Wednesday, the highest since mid-December, according to data source TradingView. Meanwhile, the MOVE index, which measures the 30-expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury notes, remained elevated at 104, the highest since November (check chart of the day).

根據數據源TradingView的數據，在傳統市場中，華爾街的恐懼量表在23.65舉行，這是自12月中旬以來最高的。同時，衡量美國財政部票據中30個預期波動率的移動指數在104號（自11月以來最高的）升高（當天的檢查圖）。

The elevated volatility in bonds is particularly concerning as it is known to cause financial tightening and weigh over risk assets. For now, however, a weaker dollar seems to be compensating for that.

債券的波動率提高特別令人擔憂，因為它眾所周知會導致財務收緊並權衡風險資產。但是，目前，較弱的美元似乎正在彌補這一點。

Still, the sticky vol indices in traditional markets raise an important question: Is the market's concern solely about tariffs, or are there underlying worries related to a significant slowdown driven by other factors such as potential fiscal consolidation?

儘管如此，傳統市場中的粘性卷指數提出了一個重要的問題：市場是對關稅的關注，還是與其他因素（例如潛在的財政合併）驅動的重大放緩相關的潛在擔憂？

The spread between yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and the three-month Treasury bill has again turned negative, inverting the yield curve to suggest recession - consecutive quarterly contractions in the GDP. "[This is] generally not a good sign," Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter said in Wednesday's edition.

美國10年期債券的收益率和三個月的國庫法案之間的差額再次變為負面，顛倒了收益曲線以表明經濟衰退 - 連續的GDP季度收縮。 “這通常不是一個好兆頭，” Crypto的作者Noelle Acheson現在在周三版中說。

Early this week, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model signaled a nearly 3% contraction in the U.S. GDP in the first quarter. The number is due for an update today. Recession fears will likely strengthen if we don't see an improvement today, potentially pressuring risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

本周初，亞特蘭大美聯儲的GDPNOW模型在第一季度表示在美國GDP近3％。該號碼應今天進行更新。如果我們今天看不到改善，可能會加劇風險資產，包括加密貨幣，那麼衰退的擔憂可能會加強。

Acheson summed up the situation best: "We are still navigating the tussle between narratives – on the one hand, risk-off sentiment driven by macro uncertainty could keep BTC and other crypto assets depressed for a while. On the other hand, the “safe haven” narrative is gaining strength, as positive news from the White House highlights the astonishing shift in official support." Stay alert!

阿奇森最好地總結了情況：“我們仍在瀏覽敘事之間的爭吵 - 一方面，由宏觀不確定性驅動的風險情緒可能會使BTC和其他加密資產抑制一段時間。另一方面，“避風港”的敘述是“避風港”的敘述，因為來自白宮的積極新聞是官方支持的正面新聞。”保持警覺！