在川普的放鬆管制議程推高加密貨幣之前，比特幣多頭可能不得不忍受拋售

加密貨幣多頭預計當選總統川普的放鬆管制議程將推動比特幣今年走高。但他們可能首先必須忍受拋售。

Crypto bulls are expecting President-Elect Donald Trump's deregulatory agenda to send bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) higher this year. But they might first have to stomach a sell-off.

加密貨幣多頭預計當選總統川普的放鬆管制議程將使比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）今年走高。但他們可能首先必須忍受拋售。

That would happen if the flagship token breaks below the $90,000 mark, and the risks of this are real, Standard Chartered said in a Tuesday note.

渣打銀行在周二的報告中表示，如果旗艦代幣跌破 9 萬美元大關，這種情況就會發生，而且這種風險是真實存在的。

"We think that a clean break below USD 90,000 for BTC would open up 10% of further downside near-term, to the low USD 80,000s. Prices of all other digital assets would likely follow," wrote Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research. In this scenario, it's entirely possible that forced or panic selling could amplify an ongoing sell-off currently driven by economic concerns.

「我們認為，如果 BTC 徹底跌破 9 萬美元，短期內將進一步下跌 10%，跌至 8 萬美元的低點。所有其他數位資產的價格可能會跟隨，」全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 寫道。在這種情況下，強製或恐慌性拋售完全有可能加劇目前由經濟擔憂引發的持續拋售。

Although bitcoin's price briefly reached as high as $97,000 on Tuesday, the currency was trading near the key threshold just one day prior. Alongside other crypto assets, the token has wavered dramatically this year as a risk-off sentiment has taken over investors. According to commentary from FXPro, the crypto market capitalization dropped to its lowest in three and a half weeks as of Monday evening.

儘管比特幣的價格在周二短暫達到了 97,000 美元的高位，但就在一天前，貨幣的交易價格還接近關鍵門檻。與其他加密資產一樣，由於避險情緒席捲了投資者，該代幣今年也出現了大幅波動。根據 FXPro 的評論，截至週一晚間，加密貨幣市值跌至三週半以來的最低水平。

Some of this stems from the same factors plaguing stocks and bonds. Bitcoin is down over 10% from its $108,000 all-time high reached last month, suffering a downturn when investors began suspecting tighter monetary policy in 2025. Bitcoin will typically decline when interest rates are high.

其中一些源於困擾股票和債券的相同因素。比特幣較上個月創下的 108,000 美元歷史高點下跌了超過 10%，當投資者開始懷疑 2025 年貨幣政策收緊時，比特幣陷入低迷。

But from here, any further downturn in crypto assets would be a self-fulfilling prophecy, Kendrick noted.

但從現在開始，加密資產的任何進一步下滑都將是一個自我實現的預言，肯德里克指出。

Spot ETF investors who have bought into bitcoin since the November presidential election now face an absolute profit of zero, given the recent price swings. That remains true as long as bitcoin remains above $90,000 — but a deeper decline will trigger investors to ditch the investment in panic, Kendrick said.

鑑於最近的價格波動，自 11 月總統大選以來買入比特幣的現貨 ETF 投資者現在面臨著絕對利潤為零的情況。肯德里克表示，只要比特幣維持在 9 萬美元以上，這種情況就仍然存在，但進一步下跌將引發投資者恐慌放棄投資。

"When prices rise, selling tends to come mostly from long-term holders taking profit. When prices fall, selling tends to come more from short-term holders selling at a loss. On-chain data shows that in recent days, 50-70% of sales have been at a loss," he wrote.

「當價格上漲時，拋售往往主要來自長期持有者獲利了結。當價格下跌時，拋售往往更多來自短期持有者虧本拋售。鏈上數據顯示，最近幾天，50-70 %的銷售額處於虧損狀態，」他寫道。

What would make bitcoin fall below the support level? While Wednesday's key inflation report will play a major role in the immediate term, bullish policy expectations could set the market up for disappointment in the coming weeks.

什麼會讓比特幣跌破支撐位？儘管週三的關鍵通膨報告將在短期內發揮重要作用，但看漲的政策預期可能會讓市場在未來幾週內感到失望。

Since Donald Trump was elected president, the market enjoyed a rush of buying amid excitement for crypto-friendly policies. The incoming administration has pledged to overhaul regulation, pass key legislation, and never to sell bitcoin held by the government. But if such changes are made quickly, Kendrick said, investors may feel let down.

自從唐納德·川普當選總統以來，市場因對加密貨幣友好政策的興奮而出現買盤熱潮。即將上任的政府承諾徹底改革監管，通過關鍵立法，並且永遠不會出售政府持有的比特幣。但肯德里克表示，如果迅速做出這樣的改變，投資人可能會感到失望。

If a correction does take bitcoin to the low $80,000s, the token would suffer a roughly 17% decline from Tuesday's high.

如果比特幣確實跌至 80,000 美元的低點，那麼該代幣將比周二的高點下跌約 17%。

However, FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich predicted on Monday that deflating risk appetite could deepen a future decline — a negative scenario would pull bitcoin back to $74,000. To be sure, bitcoin has held its ground since Monday's low point, bolstering recovery prospects.

然而，FxPro 首席市場分析師 Alex Kuptsikevich 週一預測，風險偏好下降可能會加劇未來的跌勢——負面情況將使比特幣回落至 74,000 美元。可以肯定的是，比特幣自周一低點以來一直堅守陣地，支撐了復甦前景。

Over the long term, both analysts still see a healthy bull case for the apex token. Since last year, Kendrick has projected that bitcoin can reach $200,000 by the end of the year as institutional demand for crypto recovers under Trump policies.

從長遠來看，兩位分析師仍然認為 apex 代幣有健康的多頭理由。自去年以來，肯德里克預計，隨著川普政策下機構對加密貨幣的需求復甦，比特幣到今年年底將達到 20 萬美元。