比特幣（BTC）顯示出有希望的復甦跡象，可能正在走向趨勢逆轉

最近，比特幣（BTC）顯示出有希望的復甦跡象，形成了六個月來的第一個更高的低點。這一發展，加上各種分析師的觀點，表明領先的加密貨幣可能正在走上趨勢逆轉的道路。下面我們來仔細看看這對比特幣的未來和當前的市場情緒意味著什麼。

Bitcoin (BTC) price showed a promising sign of recovery last week by forming its first higher low in six months. This development, coupled with various analyst opinions, suggests that the leading cryptocurrency might be on the path to a trend reversal. Here’s a closer look at what this means for Bitcoin’s future and the current market sentiment.

比特幣（BTC）價格上週出現了六個月來首次更高的低點，顯示出有希望的復甦跡象。這一發展，加上各種分析師的觀點，表明領先的加密貨幣可能正在走上趨勢逆轉的道路。下面我們來仔細看看這對比特幣的未來和當前的市場情緒意味著什麼。

Understanding the Higher Low

了解更高的低點

In technical analysis, a “higher low” occurs when a down-trending asset records a dip that is not as deep as its previous low. This pattern can signal a potential reversal in the market trend, indicating that selling pressure might be easing.

在技​​術分析中，當下跌趨勢資產的跌幅沒有之前的低點那麼深時，就會出現「更高的低點」。這種模式可能預示著市場趨勢可能逆轉，表明拋售壓力可能正在緩解。

For Bitcoin, the latest lower low saw prices fall to $53,300, which was not as severe as the drop to just below $50,000 on August 5th. Prior to that, Bitcoin hit a low of $54,200 on July 5th.

對於比特幣來說，最新的低點價格跌至 53,300 美元，跌幅沒有 8 月 5 日跌至略低於 50,000 美元那麼嚴重。此前，比特幣於 7 月 5 日觸及 54,200 美元的低點。

The formation of this higher low suggests that Bitcoin might be finding strong support levels, which could be a positive indicator for future price movements. Analyst ‘Mando’ highlighted this in a recent post on X, emphasizing the significance of this pattern. However, he also cautioned that this does not entirely rule out the possibility of further declines.

這一較高低點的形成表明，比特幣可能正在找到強勁的支撐位，這可能是未來價格走勢的積極指標。分析師「Mando」在 X 最近的一篇文章中強調了這一點，強調了這種模式的重要性。不過，他也警告稱，這並不完全排除進一步下跌的可能性。

Analysts’ Bullish Outlook

分析師看漲前景

Despite some cautious notes, several analysts remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. Analyst ‘Kaleo’ noted that Bitcoin is currently in a more favorable position compared to the same stage in the previous cycle following the 2020 halving. He pointed out that 141 days after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin was down only 19% from its previous peak, compared to a 46% drop 141 days after the 2017 halving.

儘管有一些謹慎的評論，一些分析師仍然對比特幣的前景感到樂觀。分析師「Kaleo」指出，與2020年減半後的上一周期同期相比，比特幣目前處於更有利的位置。他指出，2020 年減半後 141 天，比特幣較先前高峰僅下跌了 19%，而 2017 年減半後 141 天下跌了 46%。

Kaleo also highlighted several factors that could drive Bitcoin’s future growth, including the potential for institutional investments via spot ETFs, increased regulatory clarity, and the possibility of a pro-crypto president in the future. These factors, combined with historical trends, suggest that Bitcoin might be set for a new all-time high (ATH) in the coming years.

Kaleo 也強調了可能推動比特幣未來成長的幾個因素，包括透過現貨 ETF 進行機構投資的潛力、監管透明度的提高以及未來支持加密貨幣的總統的可能性。這些因素與歷史趨勢相結合，表明比特幣可能在未來幾年創下歷史新高（ATH）。

Historical Context and Future Predictions

歷史背景與未來預測

Analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ took a historical perspective, suggesting that if Bitcoin follows previous halving cycles, the next bull market peak could occur between 518 and 546 days after the current halving event. This would place the potential peak of this cycle around mid-September to mid-October 2025.

分析師「Rekt Capital」從歷史角度出發，認為如果比特幣遵循先前的減半週期，下一個牛市高峰可能會出現在當前減半事件後的 518 至 546 天之間。這將使該週期的潛在高峰出現在 2025 年 9 月中旬至 10 月中旬左右。

On the other hand, full-time crypto trader ‘Sykodelic’ expressed strong confidence that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out at around $52,500. Sykodelic believes that Bitcoin will not see a price as low as $44,000, based on the analysis of Tether (USDT) dominance, which appears to be at bear market levels and moves inversely to Bitcoin prices. According to Sykodelic, the evidence suggests a higher probability of upward movement from current levels.

另一方面，全職加密貨幣交易員「Sykodelic」對比特幣可能已在 52,500 美元左右觸底表示強烈信心。 Sykodelic 認為，根據 Tether (USDT) 主導地位的分析，比特幣的價格不會低至 44,000 美元，該價格似乎處於熊市水平，並且與比特幣價格走勢相反。 Sykodelic 表示，證據表明從目前水平向上移動的可能性更高。

Impact of Inflation and Economic Conditions

通貨膨脹和經濟狀況的影響

While technical indicators and historical patterns provide a glimpse into potential future trends, broader economic conditions also play a crucial role. Analyst James Check discussed how prolonged inflation has impacted purchasing power, contributing to the negative sentiment in the market. High inflation has eroded the value of the dollar, making investments less attractive and affecting market psychology.

雖然技術指標和歷史模式可以讓我們了解潛在的未來趨勢，但更廣泛的經濟狀況也發揮著至關重要的作用。分析師 James Check 討論了長期通膨如何影響購買力，從而加劇市場的負面情緒。高通膨侵蝕了美元的價值，降低了投資吸引力並影響了市場心理。

Check noted that the current price of Bitcoin is about 40% below its all-time high from 2021, compared to a 25% drop from the latest ATH. This discrepancy reflects the ongoing impact of inflation and the actual purchasing power, which often diverges from official Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports.

Check 指出，比特幣目前的價格比 2021 年以來的歷史高點低約 40%，而最新 ATH 則下跌了 25%。這種差異反映了通貨膨脹和實際購買力的持續影響，而實際購買力往往與官方消費者物價指數（CPI）報告有差異。

Current Market Performance

目前的市場表現

As of the latest update, Bitcoin was trading at $56,648, reflecting a 3.3% increase on the day. This price movement suggests that the market is responding positively to recent developments, including the formation of the higher low and ongoing accumulation by large holders.

截至最新更新，比特幣交易價格為 56,648 美元，當天上漲 3.3%。這種價格走勢顯示市場正在對近期事態發展做出積極反應，包括更高低點的形成以及大股東的持續增持。