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在周三舉行的FOMC會議之後,比特幣(BTC)的價格飆升了3.5%,因為美國美聯儲保持不變的價格為4.5%。然而
Bitcoin price showed a slight recovery on Wednesday following the FOMC meeting as the US Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 4.5%. However, Arthur Hayes predicts that the Fed rate cuts would likely resume from April 1 which could bode well for BTC and the overall crypto market, moving ahead.
在FOMC會議之後,比特幣價格在周三的周三略有恢復,因為美國美聯儲保持不變的價格為4.5%。但是,亞瑟·海斯(Arthur Hayes)預測,美聯儲降低的降低可能會從4月1日起恢復,這對於BTC和整個加密貨幣市場可能會很好地兌現。
Discussing the crypto market reaction following the FOMC meeting, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that the recent Bitcoin price drop to $77,000 could mark its bottom. According to Hayes, QT (quantitative tightening) will conclude by April 1, and if there is an exemption to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio or the resumption of QE (quantitative easing), then we could see bullish momentum.
Bitmex首席執行官亞瑟·海斯(Arthur Hayes)在討論加密市場反應後說,最近的比特幣價格下跌至77,000美元可能標誌著其最低點。根據海耶斯的說法,QT(定量收緊)將於4月1日結束,如果對補充槓桿比率有豁免或QE的恢復(定量寬鬆),那麼我們可以看到看漲的動力。
Moreover, Hayes noted that the correction in the US equity market could continue in order to push Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell toward adopting policies favorable to the Trump administration. "Stay nimble and cashed up," Hayes advised.
此外,海耶斯指出,美國股票市場的更正可能會繼續,以推動美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)採用有利於特朗普政府的政策。海斯建議:“保持敏捷並兌現。”
On the other hand, President Trump took to Truth Social to post: "The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!."
另一方面,特朗普總統採取了社交態度發布:“隨著烏版派開始過渡(輕鬆!)他們進入經濟的方式,美聯儲會更好地降低利率。做正確的事。4月2日是美國的解放日!!!”
BTC Price Action and M2 Money Supply
BTC價格行動和M2貨幣供應
Following yesterday’s FOMC meeting, Bitcoin price staged a quick recovery jumping 3.5% and moving all the way to $87,000. Popular analyst IncomeSharks noted that BTC has bounced back from the supertrend support. However, for BTC to resume the uptrend, it must close above the diagonal resistance of $86,351.
在昨天的FOMC會議之後,比特幣普萊斯(Bitcoin Price)迅速恢復了3.5%,並一直升至87,000美元。受歡迎的分析師Incomesharks指出,BTC從超級趨勢支持中反彈。但是,要使BTC恢復上升趨勢,它必須超過對角線阻力為86,351美元。
Furthermore, the Bitcoin price action could soon follow the M2 money supply which has been rising recently. M2 is expected to grow over time for various reasons, and its high correlation with Bitcoin, combined with a power-law leverage factor of 9, indicates that even small changes in liquidity can have a substantial impact on BTC price. Also, the BTC price prediction data shows it moving to $90,000 by mid-April.
此外,比特幣價格行動可能很快遵循最近正在上升的M2貨幣供應。預計M2會因各種原因而隨著時間的推移而增長,並且其與比特幣的高度相關性,加上槓桿槓桿率為9,這表明即使是流動性的小變化也會對BTC價格產生重大影響。此外,BTC價格預測數據顯示,到4月中旬,其提高到90,000美元。
For instance, a 10% increase in liquidity could result in more than doubling BTC price. On the other hand, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed once again with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the show.
例如,流動性增加10%可能會導致BTC價格增加一倍以上。另一方面,以貝萊德(Blackrock)的IBIT領導該節目的IBIT再次恢復了斑點比特幣ETF的流入。
Apart from Bitcoin, altcoins have also shown strength following the FOMC meeting. Top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) have bounced back 4-10% in the last 24 hours.
除了比特幣外,Altcoins在FOMC會議之後還顯示出強度。在過去的24小時內,諸如以太坊(ETH),XRP,Solana(Sol)和Dogecoin(Doge)等頂級山寨幣在4-10%中彈回了4-10%。
Will The US Fed End QT In April?
美國美聯儲會在四月結束QT嗎?
As the Trump trade war impact intensifies putting American economy on a slowdown, some market analysts believe that the Fed could be the first to blink. While addressing the media on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated: "The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the Fed Funds Rate will be 3.9% at the end of this year and 3.4% at the end of next year, unchanged from December."
隨著特朗普貿易戰的影響加劇,使美國經濟放緩,一些市場分析師認為,美聯儲可能是第一個眨眼的人。美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)在周三向媒體講話時說:“中位參與者預測,適當的美聯儲資金利率將在今年年底為3.9%,明年年底將為3.4%,從12月開始不變。”
Responding to Arthur Hayes, popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen stated that quantitative tightening (QT) will not be ending on April 1 as claimed. Addressing the matter further, Cowen clarified that while QT has been adjusted, it is still ongoing.
在回應亞瑟·海斯(Arthur Hayes)時,受歡迎的加密分析師本傑明·考恩(Benjamin Cowen)表示,定量擰緊(QT)將不會在4月1日結束。在進一步解決此問題時,Cowen澄清說,儘管已調整了QT,但仍在進行中。
“QT is not ‘basically over’ on April 1,” Cowen said. According to him, the Federal Reserve is still reducing its balance sheet by $35 billion per month through mortgage-backed securities. The rate of reduction has slowed from $60 billion per month to $40 billion per month, but the process continues.
考恩說:“ QT在4月1日並沒有'基本上'。”據他介紹,美聯儲仍通過抵押支持證券將其資產負債表每月減少350億美元。降低速度從每月600億美元放緩至每月400億美元,但該過程仍在繼續。
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