比特幣（BTC）價格預測：減半後的看漲與看跌情景

由於比特幣減半發生在 2024 年 4 月，本次分析將重點放在市場在減半後的反應以及指標所顯示的情況

Bitcoin price movements have been closely followed by traders and investors alike, especially after the recent halving in April 2024. As we enter the second half of the year, let's analyze the technicals and explore the key levels to watch for in the upcoming months.

比特幣的價格走勢一直受到交易者和投資者的密切關注，尤其是在最近的2024 年4 月減半之後。的關鍵水平。

After the Bitcoin halving event, which occurred in April 2024, let's examine the market's response and analyze the crucial technical indicators that may hint at potential bullish or bearish scenarios for Bitcoin in the short to long term. We'll also explore the key support and resistance levels that could shape BTC's price action in the coming months.

在 2024 年 4 月發生的比特幣減半事件之後，讓我們檢視市場的反應，並分析可能暗示比特幣短期到長期潛在看漲或看跌情境的關鍵技術指標。我們也將探討可能影響比特幣未來幾個月價格走勢的關鍵支撐位和阻力位。

1. Spot Price and Recent Movements:

1. 現貨價格及近期走勢：

BTC Price: Currently trading at $61,833.3, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% in the last 24 hours.

BTC價格：目前交易價格為61,833.3美元，過去24小時小幅下跌0.1%。

Post-Halving Trend: Typically, after a halving, Bitcoin enters an accumulation phase, with price consolidations before any potential explosive moves.

減半後趨勢：通常情況下，減半後，比特幣進入累積階段，在任何潛在的爆炸性走勢之前價格都會盤整。

2. Volume (SMA 9):

2. 體積（SMA 9）：

Volume SMA: At 133.005M, indicating that trading activity is relatively stable post-halving, but a volume breakout could signal a trend shift.

成交量 SMA：為 133.005M，顯示減半後交易活動相對穩定，但成交量突破可能預示著趨勢轉變。

Analysis: A volume breakout is a critical signal of strength or weakness. Increasing volume paired with rising prices often precedes a bullish run.

分析：成交量突破是強弱的關鍵訊號。成交量的增加和價格的上漲往往先於牛市。

3. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD):

3. 累積體積增量 (CVD)：

Current CVD: -65.398K, suggesting that selling pressure is still dominant.

目前CVD：-65.398K，顯示拋售壓力仍占主導地位。

Analysis: This shows a period of consolidation where sellers dominate, and there could be a potential drop to lower support zones if buying volume doesn't increase soon. However, sharp buying pressure reversals post-halving have been common historically.

分析：這顯示賣方佔據主導地位的盤整期，如果購買量不很快增加，則可能會跌至較低的支撐區域。然而，歷史上，減半後購買壓力急劇逆轉的現像很常見。

4. Aggregated Futures CVD:

4. 綜合期貨CVD：

Futures Market Insight: With -896.088K in futures CVD, there's a clear indication of sell-side dominance in the futures markets.

期貨市場洞察：期貨CVD為-896.088K，清楚顯示賣方在期貨市場中佔據主導地位。

Bearish Sign: This metric hints at potential downward price movement, especially if futures traders remain bearish. Historically, futures-driven sell-offs can trigger a short squeeze rally if spot buyers step in strongly.

看跌訊號：此指標暗示價格可能下跌，特別是如果期貨交易者仍然看跌的話。從歷史上看，如果現貨買家強勢介入，期貨驅動的拋售可能會引發軋空反彈。

5. Taker Buy/Sell Volume:

5. 吃單者買進/賣出量：

Buy Volume: 64.558M, Sell Volume: 68.406M.

買量：64.558M，賣出量：68.406M。

Bearish Short-Term: More sellers than buyers in the spot market indicate bearish pressure, but this could be part of a consolidation phase before a major price movement.

短期看跌：現貨市場賣家多於買家，顯示看跌壓力，但這可能是價格大幅波動之前盤整階段的一部分。

Post-Halving Market Trends:

減半後市場趨勢：

Historically, Bitcoin halvings lead to supply shocks, as the block rewards get halved. This creates a supply squeeze and typically, prices surge within 6-18 months after the halving event.

從歷史上看，比特幣減半會導致供應衝擊，因為區塊獎勵減半。這會造成供應緊張，通常情況下，價格會在減半事件後 6-18 個月內飆升。

Bullish Scenario:

看漲情景：

Short-Term Resistance:

短期阻力：

$63,200: If BTC breaks this level, it could signal the start of a post-halving rally. A breakout could push BTC toward the next significant resistance at $65,000.

63,200 美元：如果 BTC 突破這一水平，則可能預示著減半後反彈的開始。突破可能會將 BTC 推向下一個重要阻力位 65,000 美元。

$65,000 - $70,000 Zone: Breaking this region post-halving could trigger a bull market where FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) drives prices higher.

$65,000 - $70,000 區域：減半後突破該區域可能會引發牛市，FOMO（害怕錯過）會推高價格。

Mid-Term Target:

中期目標：

Historically, Bitcoin sees parabolic gains within 6-12 months after halving events. If BTC sustains momentum and breaks above $70,000, the next major target is $80,000 and possibly towards $100,000 by late 2024 or early 2025.

從歷史上看，比特幣在減半事件發生後 6-12 個月內會出現拋物線式上漲。如果 BTC 保持勢頭並突破 70,000 美元，下一個主要目標是 80,000 美元，並可能在 2024 年底或 2025 年初達到 100,000 美元。

Bearish Scenario:

看跌情景：

Short-Term Support:

短期支持：

$61,000: This is a crucial support level. Breaking below this could lead to a drop to $58,000. If it fails, BTC could retest the $55,000 zone.

61,000 美元：這是一個關鍵的支撐位。跌破該水平可能會導致跌至 58,000 美元。如果失敗，BTC 可能會重新測試 55,000 美元區域。

$52,000: If macroeconomic conditions turn bearish, and BTC fails to hold $58,000, a deeper correction towards $50,000 - $52,000 is possible, which has historically been a strong accumulation zone.

52,000 美元：如果宏觀經濟狀況轉為看跌，並且 BTC 未能守住 58,000 美元，則可能會進一步回調至 50,000 美元至 52,000 美元，這在歷史上一直是一個強勁的積累區域。

Mid-Term Bearish Target:

中期看跌目標：

A failure to hold above $55,000 could lead to a longer consolidation phase post-halving, with BTC ranging between $50,000 - $55,000 throughout 2024. This would mirror the 2018 bear market where BTC consolidated post-halving before a major rally.

如果未能維持在55,000 美元以上，可能會導致減半後的盤整階段更長，整個2024 年BTC 的價格區間在50,000 美元至55,000 美元之間。在出現大幅上漲之前進行了盤整。

Key Technical Indicators Post-Halving:

減半後主要技術指標：

1. RSI (Relative Strength Index):

1.RSI（相對強弱指數）：

Current RSI: Neutral at 50-55. This is neither overbought nor oversold territory.

目前 RSI：中性在 50-55。這既不是超買也不是超賣領域。

Analysis: RSI above 70 signals an overbought market, so a push towards this level could indicate that BTC may soon correct after a rally. Conversely, RSI dropping to 30

分析：RSI高於70表示市場處於超買狀態，因此推動該水平可能表明BTC在反彈後可能很快就會回調。相反，RSI 跌至 30